Thread by @kakape

Cambodia has informed @WHO of two confirmed cases of #avianinfluenza #H5N1, an 11 year old girl that died and another member of her family, @SCBriand just said in a @WHO press conference. Field investigations are going on, she said.

@WHO @SCBriand The second case is presumably her father.

https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/1628992029089832960

@WHO @SCBriand It's crucial, of course, to learn more about what exactly happened incl. whether there are other possible cases, how the cases were infected and whether there was any human-to-human transmission.

@WHO @SCBriand A teleconference is ongoing at the moment between Cambodia and @WHO, @SCBriand says. "So far it is too early to know whether this is human-to-human transmission", she says.

@WHO @SCBriand As usual in these cases:
There is a lot of uncertainty.
Be careful not to jump to conclusions! And don't trust other people who jump to conclusions. We just don't know at the moment.

@WHO @SCBriand There is a lot of #H5N1 circulating in birds at the moment and across a larger part of the world than ever before and that will invariably lead to spillover to mammals incl. humans as well.

@WHO @SCBriand That means there is a real risk of a pandemic because every spillover present an opportunity for the virus to adapt to mammals.
("It’s a numbers game", Richard Webby told me a month ago here: science.org/content/articl…)

@WHO @SCBriand But it does NOT mean that every single case of #H5N1 is somehow the start of a pandemic. Remember that we have seen hundreds of human cases of #H5N1 in recent years and we have not had a pandemic (so far).

@WHO @SCBriand It is even possible that this virus for some reason just does not have what it takes to become a successful human pathogen.
But I would never bet against viruses and evolution... And I don't know anyone in this field who would!

@WHO @SCBriand So every single case of #H5N1 is a reminder that we DO need to be prepared for the possibility of an influenza pandemic.
And - in my personal opinion - we are sorely lacking on that front at the moment given how we are coming out of the #covid19 pandemic...