1/ The Wagner Group's huge losses and lack of reserves are said to have left it incapable of defending the territory it has captured, presenting a severe risk if Ukraine launches a major counter-offensive. The situation is described as 'desperate'. ⬇️ 
2/ According to the Russian VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, a source likely linked to Wagner has spoken about the background to Yevgeny Prigozhin's recent candid interview on Wagner's shortage of shells and his publication of a photo of its recent casualties.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1628676822261985283
3/ "It's already desperate. There were hopes that the Ministry of Defence's debacle in Vuhledar would lead to a reaction by now. At the same time, Prigozhin, as it turned out, really managed to promise some kind of results from the PMC Wagner.
4/ But in the end, there is no chance for [Wagner] to be on a winning streak against the background of the failure of the General Staff.
5/ In principle, convicts being employed as stormtroopers were originally planned to be exchanged for promotion in Bakhmut - there is no way to prematurely terminate the contract with them, and they are useless for other purposes.
6/ But at the current rate of resource consumption, the criminals will run out, and quickly enough, without any result. Then it could be the end of the Orchestra [Wagner].
7/ Wagner's problem is now that the combination of assault group tactics and artillery coverage is faced with unsolvable problems. The first is the shortage of stormtroopers, this is kind of understandable.
8/ But the second is more profound – the more territory is taken, the more men are needed to control and hold those territories. Even without taking the assault into account. And third – more and more shells are needed. More and more. And there are fewer and fewer of them.
9/ And then there are risks: Wagner has no reserves of its own. If suddenly the Armed Forces of Ukraine go on a big offensive, Wagner has no defensive lines. Every meter of progress in Bakhmut is over a mountain of bodies.
10/ And in the event of a breakthrough by the AFU, they can simply take as much as they want, because there is no one to build a defence. It is foolish to count on the Ministry of Defence.
11/ Since they are not allowed to change the situation, Prigozhin is raising the stakes right now: they will accuse him of leaking the losses of the Musicians – then the losses of the Ministry of Defence near Vuhledar can be laid out in response.
12/ You know what's interesting? Wagner now has huge losses, but there is at least some result. What about the General Staff? They have Colonel-General Muradov [in command] and significantly greater losses of people and equipment, in total."
Source:
t.me/vchkogpu/36784
Source:
t.me/vchkogpu/36784
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