Thread by @bfry1981

THREAD🧵1-On the anniversary of Putin's insane escalatory invasion, a thread on all my content on it (you can find all that work here realcontextnews.com/articles/putin…)

2-It began with a long Small Wars Journal article published on February 21, a few days before the invasion and looking at the context of the coming invasion, through the lens of Russian imperialism, NATO disinformation, Eastern European agency, and timing smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/utter…

3-I turned that article into four separate articles on my website, the first on Feb 21 dealing with the timing of Putin's buildup and soon-to-be invasion. Essentially, Putin misread Biden & NATO as weak after January 6 and Afghanistan realcontextnews.com/why-is-putin-d…

4-The next in that series (Feb 25) was a discussion of how Russia is like an abusive ex, that it had no one to blame but itself for why Eastern European countries couldn't wait to ally with the West, EU, & NATO because of how horribly Russia treated them realcontextnews.com/how-to-lose-na…

5-The third in that series (March 1) assailed and corrected Putin's false NATO narrative, contradicted by Gorbachev himself: the U.S. never promised never to expand NATO east, that was about troop deployments in post-Berlin Wall Germany realcontextnews.com/putins-nato-na…

6-The last in that series came two weeks later, on March 16 (I got busy with other Ukraine writing), going into detail on the boring, unoriginal, old imperialism of Russia & how Putin was trying to move the world backwards in time to eras of conquest realcontextnews.com/putins-zombie-…

7-The next big piece of mine was also a long one for Small Wars Journal on March 9. I was seeing how bad the Russian Army was at this war thing, how badly Putin had miscalculated, that he was doomed (featured by @RCDefense & @NEDemocracy's @demdigest) smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/begin…

8-It was so long I did the breakup thing again. 1st piece on my site was March 9, focusing on how horribly & careless Russia treated its own soldiers & the families of the soldiers, how it gaslit them constantly realcontextnews.com/a-look-at-puti…

9-Next up: March 11 discussion of casualties amidst the fog of war & why Ukraine's estimates of Russia's horrific casualties should be viewed as generally credible (I stand by this & think Ukraine's public estimate of Russia's casualties is still the best) realcontextnews.com/on-casualties-…

10-Then on March 13 it was a discussion of how horrific Russian casualties would be the best way to punch through Putin's propaganda bubble inside Russia, how enough dead Russian bodies over time would reveal Putin's weakness & failure to his own people realcontextnews.com/how-best-to-pe…

11-Building on this, on March 19 I got into how this would undermine Putin's rule and spread unrest over time, the Russian military was so bad it could not adjust and that the military &/or people might revolt eventually (I still think this is coming) realcontextnews.com/time-for-the-r…

12-Jumping way ahead and with substantial new discussion added, the final excerpt from March 9 came on Sept 16; I felt confident that my initial predictions/feelings that this war would be the end of Putin were further on the path to coming true realcontextnews.com/i-saw-this-war…

13-My next work: a podcast posted April 2 (trying to do more of these soon) w/ Oleksandra Matviichuk @avalaina—civil society/human rights activist in Ukraine—talking Russian war crimes. She went on to win the Nobel Peace Prize for Ukraine later that year. realcontextnews.com/the-real-conte…

14-April 10: discussion on how Western anti-ship missiles would make Russian Navy largely irrelevant, singularly predicting the sinking of the Moskva (which occurred days later). Had to adapt for BoJo's announcement. Reworked for SWJ & feat. by @RCDefense realcontextnews.com/ukraine-will-e…

15-Last piece got me thinking about Crimea, very vulnerable to a siege, so April 24: how & why Ukraine could take it back. Predicted way ahead of time Ukraine hitting Kerch Strait/Crimean Bridge. We're getting closer & closer to all this! Reworked for SWJ realcontextnews.com/how-ukraine-ca…

16-Excerpted from the last piece, April 30 I posted a quick primer on why Ukraine's military was qualitatively better than Russia's and kicking Russia's ass. Evergreen. realcontextnews.com/a-super-short-…

17-Focused on personal stuff for a while but then began reading an excellent book on the Soviet-Finnish Winter War of 1939-1940, A Frozen Hell by William Trotter. It struck me Stalin was more reasonable in 1939 than Putin was in 2022, so, May 23: realcontextnews.com/a-terrifying-c…

18-This would be part of a much longer deep-dive on the lessons/relevance of the Soviet-Finnish Winter War to today's Russo-Ukrainian war and some historical context, put up May 23 by SWJ smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/bungl…

19-This piece was excerpted form the big Soviet-Finnish Winter War piece: a May 25 examination of the long history of atrocities, genocides, mass deportations and murders, & cultural suppression by Russia & USSR committed against Ukraine. #Holodomor realcontextnews.com/a-brief-histor…

20-Next excerpted piece May 31 on Putin's twisting of history & denial of Ukrainian nationalism when he calls Ukrainians "Banderites" & "Nazis," about Ukraine's rebellion against Soviet tyranny in WWII & some rebels' temporary alliance w/ Germany in WWII realcontextnews.com/banderites-wha…

21-Next excerpt from that long piece: June 2 on how fixations of Stalin & Putin on near-nonexistent fascists in Finland in 1939 and Ukraine in 2022, respectively, led to terrible war planning based on bunk assumptions about the countries they were invading realcontextnews.com/how-delusions-…

22-Next excerpted piece: June 5 on how hubris crippled both Stalin's war effort in 1939-1940 against Finland & Putin's against Ukraine, how many of the exact same mistakes from 1939-40 were being made in 2022 by Russia realcontextnews.com/moscows-1939-f…

23-Final excerpt from big piece looked at series of other parallels between Soviet-Finnish Winter War and the current war, including false flag justifications from Moscow, people feeing Moscow bad info, & Moscow's communications & coordination problems realcontextnews.com/a-flurry-of-te…

24-While beginning work on my next big piece, I realized how much juxtaposing maps could tell a big part of the tale of this war, especially Russia's lack of progress after week 5, as nearly all the big gains have been Ukraine's. Thus, this July 14 piece realcontextnews.com/the-three-maps…

25-Original map and an updated version from mid-Feb 2023: after the first five weeks, you can see it's been nearly all Ukraine winning and Russia losing. Impossible NOT to notice this

26-On July 26, fed up w/ stupid tankie myopic ahistorical nonsense about the West/NATO/the U.S. being the instigators/aggressors/escalators in Russia's war of imperial conquest, I rebutted those arguments here. I'm looking at you, @aaronjmate @ggreenwald realcontextnews.com/debunking-one-…

27-July 30 I finally finished that long piece I was working on, essentially and examination of WHY Ukraine will win the war: at that point, tactical & strategic dynamics were pretty locked into placing favoring Ukraine and definitely not favoring Russia realcontextnews.com/russias-defeat…

28-Aug 3 follow-up piece on HOW Ukraine would win, focusing on Kherson opening up the south for Ukraine in a way that will eventually link the two main fronts once Ukraine rolls through much of south. Redone for @BylineTimes & combined w/ last for SWJ realcontextnews.com/how-ukraine-wa…

29-Aug 9 I put out a counterintuitive piece saying the focus on racism as the explanation for why the West was doing so much to help Ukraine was off when discussing the challenges of humanitarian work in for Mosul, Iraq 2016-2017 compared to Ukraine 2022. realcontextnews.com/the-wests-huma…

31-Aug 23: felt compelled to address myopic takes; Ukraine taking its time, softening up Russian positions wasn't "stalemate" but Ukrainian prudence meeting Russian limitations; Ukraine cares for its troops troops, Russia doesn't & rushes; redone for SWJ realcontextnews.com/ukrainian-prud…

32-Aug 25 Put out my top 5 English Twitters to follow on Ukraine war list!
@MarkHertling best takes of ex-mil crowd
@TrentTelenko logistics wiz
@IAPonomarenko local reporter w/ heart @PhillipsPOBrien on-target academic
@RALee85 cataloging lots of OSINT realcontextnews.com/the-5-english-…

33-We didn't have to wait long for a Ukrainian breakthrough: we actually got more than 1!! Sep 7 I added a bit of new analysis and excerpted from a recent piece a part on the math-like nature of Russian defeats to explaining what was happening at the time realcontextnews.com/why-is-russia-…

34-Follow up on Sep 10: how it's easy to predict THAT there will be more Russian collapses and eventually revolution in Russia, but when/where much harder to predict. Reworked for SWJ/feat. by @RCDefense. This is still the case, be patient they are coming! realcontextnews.com/russian-army-c…

35-Next was #12 in this thread, then on Sep 27, a focus on how Putin's rushed, sloppy mobilization was going to further accelerate his doom & not help Russia, still now destroying Putin's credibility, & 1st round has little to show for it. Redone for SWJ realcontextnews.com/why-putin-has-…

36-Oct 6: factoring in Ukraine's new counteroffensives meant we were seeing beginning of end of war: not soon, but that the rest of the war would mostly be Ukraine hitting remaining Russian positions & pushing Russia out of all of Ukraine; redone for SWJ realcontextnews.com/this-is-the-be…

37-Oct 31: Met two thinkers/writers at a party: @shadihamid @achkhikvadze & their work really made me think about why so many support Ukraine on a deep, visceral level, not just geopolitically. A break from my hard analysis with something more emotional realcontextnews.com/capturing-the-…

38-Nov 1st: wrote for @Jerusalem_Post @JPostOpinion reason many folks don't support Israelis or Palestinians more are degrees to which each behaves more like Russia than Ukraine—Israel w/ imperialist settlements, Palestinians w/ rocket attacks on civilians jpost.com/opinion/articl…

39-Around this time, there were lots of bad, myopic takes that "winter will be bad for Ukraine's military!" ignoring that Ukraine does much more to care for its troops' health/comfort than Russia, so I debunked that on Nov 28; reworked for SWJ realcontextnews.com/winter-war-in-…

40-Dec 26: in 1st major update in months, I wrote that Biden & Zelensky had triumphed over Putin, that the war had settled into alternating phases: 1-Ukriane taking lots of territory back 2-Ukraine prepping to do this, both with lots of Russian casualties realcontextnews.com/russia-ukraine…

41-I broke this up into smaller pieces for SWJ. 1st was short Jan 10 primer on how Russian missiles/drones strikes were some of last cards up Russia's sleeve but were becoming increasingly ineffective against improving Western-sent Ukrainian air defenses smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/russi…

42-Next Jan 16 SWJ excerpt focused on the depth and breadth of Russia's losing, in terms of casualties, territories lost, equipment destroyed, and in the desperation of Russia's tactics smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/depth…

43-Next Feb 1 SWJ excerpt focused on the alternating phase aspect, between Ukraine carrying out major successful counteroffensives and preparing for them, both with Russia suffering massive casualties, that Russia's losing was a constant smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/russi…

44-The next Feb 9 SWJ excerpt was focusing on how many thought Biden and Zelensky were weak before Feb 24, 2022, and that Putin was strong; now only fools think this smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/putin…

45-Next piece for my own site Jan 1 was an excerpt, w/ new discussion added, on nature of fascism from a much older piece from Feb 17 2017 (in reaction to Trump's inauguration & his early days as POTUS), but in reposting, the focus was on Putin's fascism realcontextnews.com/an-urgently-ne…

46-Then it was a Jan 13 look at Russia's Pyrrhic Bakhmut campaign, w/ fitting look at the campaigns & death of Pyrrhus of Epirus & how Russia's Pyrrhic advances for negligible Soledar et al. gains would only doom Russian forces when Ukraine counterattacked realcontextnews.com/russias-pyrrhi…

47-The next day Jan 14 I came out with a quick piece just highlighting the map collage I used to illustrate how Pyrrhic and minuscule were Russia's "victories" near Bakhmut (Soledar et al.), how pathetically little it had gained in 4 months in the area realcontextnews.com/the-two-maps-s…

48-Feb 16 piece: why Russia's new offensive doomed:
Lotsa momentum for UKR
Trends in territorial loss/gain
Insane RU casualties
RU military already failed at its best
UKR military improving
LOGISTICS
Morale
Leadership

Reworked for SWJ, feat. by @RCDefense
realcontextnews.com/offensive-smen…

49-My related thread here

https://twitter.com/bfry1981/status/1627872134897737728

50-And OH, if you appreciate my work, PLEASE PLEASE spread the word, share and repost, and even consider donating $, as I am a one-man shot and every little big helps A LOT, without your support I wouldn't have the reach and respect I do, THANKs!!! realcontextnews.com/#donate