NSW #Newspoll! 52-48 to ALP
https://twitter.com/australian/status/1629791648900165632
NSW #Newspoll Coalition 37 Labor 36 Greens 12 others 15
NSW #Newspoll Perrottet net +9 (50-41) Minns net +8 (41-33) Better Premier (skews to incumbents) Perrottet leads 43-33
My model for 52-48 gives Labor an estimated 43 seats, Coalition 40 (this is assuming no net losses to crossbench including Ward retaining Kiama). Article refers to government losing Willoughby to Penn (using by-election as baseline? Not recommended.)
The fact that the article has Labor on 42 not 41 also suggested they've used by-elections as a baseline (hence giving Labor Bega). Though if it's 52-48 Labor should keep Bega anyway.
Government could potentially survive in minority off 48-52 though probably not.
Government could potentially survive in minority off 48-52 though probably not.
It's only one poll, maybe Labor is doing better than that, but if not just bear in mind that federal drag is a theory and a fact. :)
Seeing some people trying to discount this #Newspoll by saying Newspoll showed close results that didn't happen in Victoria and federally. That is false. Newspoll/YouGov strongly projected ALP majority government in both.
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