A new Pentagon budget realignment file dropped (with $3.8 billions of new orders). Again it has a lot of interesting info about what weapons have been sent to Ukraine... even though every time more and more of the orders are classified (but I have a good idea what they are).
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First I want to thank @osmnactej - he keeps looking on the Pentagon website for these files every day and has found more than a dozen so far.
For an earlier thread about these Pentagon files - check out the link below: 2/n
This is the first time the Pentagon spends almost as much on Excalibur as on standard 155mm rounds. It's also more than double all of the previous Excalibur orders combined, which were $184,2m 4/n
M142 HIMARS: $489.5m
Interestingly the Pentagon splits this order in two: 18 HIMARS to replace the M119A2 105mm howitzers of one US Army artillery battalion and then 100+ HIMARS for... ??? it doesn't say for whom. 5/n
So far the Pentagon ordered an extra $480.5m in GMLRS rockets, which is around 3,200 rockets.
This time the Pentagon ordered $1,143,382,000 (!) in GMLRS rockets. But now the type of GMLRS is classified... which makes me think they ordered 7,600+ of the 150km ER-GMLRS. 6/n
Also ordered were:
JLTV: $125,7m to replace armored Humvees
FMTV trucks: $87,7m
AMPV: $800,6m to replace the 100s of M113 donated to Ukraine. 7/n
Also $53.5m for mine clearing charges.... which is interesting because until now the Pentagon had ordered only $1,4m of this item.
This makes it very obvious Ukraine is going to blast through a lot of minefields soon. 8/n
The Pentagon also ordered five additional M-SHORAD Stryker Air Defense Vehicles as replacement for AN/TWQ-1 Avengers sent to Ukraine... this order is on top of the 144 M-SHORAD Strykers the Pentagon already ordered. 9/n
Now onto the US Air Force, which is ordering three new missiles.
Interesting part is that Pentagon says Ukraine received AIM-120B AMRAAM air-to-air missiles - likely for the NASAMS 2 air defense system. 10/n
The AGM-158C LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) replaces AGM-84 Harpoonmissiles given to Ukraine... which is interesting, as this is the air-launched variant of the Harpoon... so... maybe Ukraine has now integrated Harpoon anti-ship missiles on their fighters. 11/n
The AGM-88G AARGM-ER (Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile Extended Range - to the rear) is a Ramjet upgrade of the AGM-88E HARM (to the front) introduced in 2010.
AGM-88G is the world's most advanced and fastest anti-radiation missile with a 400 km range. 12/n
In short: the US Air Force is giving Ukraine excellent older missiles that are great at defeating russia, and replaces them with missles that are meant to defeat China.
And this concludes our little trip into the Pentagon budget.
13/end
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Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?
There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia 1/5
could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
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troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
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The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.
If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.
This will be a unsettling thread:
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This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.
To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).
Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war: 1) Black Sea 2) Baltic Sea 3) North Atlantic
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These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.
I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid 2/n
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU
Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).
Let me explain.
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As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.
Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but 2/n
(there is always a "but" with European militaries):
• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries 3/n
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.
Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
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backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).
Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came 2/n
in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n
And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
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This is Copenhagen.
And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
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This is Paris.
And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
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