Let's consider how today has gone for what we'll now have to call the Windsor Framework
tl;dr about as well as could be hoped for, maybe better
Run-in over past weeks was distinctly hazy - no grass-rolling, no consultation, mixed signals about how much was actually settled
However, did also draw some of the sting today, given text came with no major surprises
Confusion of mixing in VdL's trip to visit King didn't help, although I think it was really a curtesy thing rather than a sell (Windsor branding didn't hurt for selling to Unionists though)
However, action through this afternoon has been very strong: lots of very positive words and coordination of positions, with no-one stepping on anyone else's toes
Hasn't been a presser that chummy since, well, ever in post-#EURef period
Legal texts came a bit late, and with full-on "we're not going to make this easy for you non-lawyers" mode, but the depth of briefing materials suggests much more thought about how this is to be sold
In terms of responses, govt has benefited from lack of leadership from opponents: no-one (still) seems to want to ride at the front in attacking
I have no idea about balance of luck and judgment on this, but No.10 has held on long enough to this to suggest latter was certainly in play
ERG seem very quiet
DUP are thinking about it
Johnson is 'studying' it
None of that was given 24 hours ago
So push today was been a very good step in resetting things: VdL's dangling of Horizon helps too in keeping movement going on this
Lots of +ve comments from abroad also weigh here: shows that others have been watching and reinforce Sunak's hand
Pitfalls still remain: DUP needs to step up or step off this deal and re-entering Executive; backbench might be unhappy about timing/form of Commons 'having its say' (although tonight's debate suggests not so much); a legal bod might discover a big issue
But for now, Sunak and VdL will take today and hope they can build from it
/end (of the beginning?)
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Previous strength of hard Brexit movement came in part from breadth: lots of supporting action for other wings, so too many to be singled out and contained
That seems to be falling apart in this case (not necessarily totally, before you get too excited): some have satisfised their objectives, some have retired, some are too deep into ministerial roles, some think this will be better than what LAB might do
Right, my focaccia-making skills have not been enough to get the family to spend the rest of the evening with me, so let's think about what an NIP deal text might look like and where the traps lie
1/
Starting point is status of text itself
Is it a declaration of Jt Council to clarify functioning of Protocol, or a new EU-UK agreement that partially supercedes (small) parts of said Protocol?
2/
If former then harder to sell as a renegotiation
If latter, then has EU pushed for clear language about how also all of Protocol remains in effect
3/
First up, the text isn't out there, which means either govt and Commission still haven't pinned it down fully or that it will raise more problems in minds of DUP/ERG (if it were a slamdunk for govt, we'd know about it)
Fesko rightly points up the need to think about what comes after the war: economic and political reconstruction have to build from now and from what there is
War has revitalised the West, assuming it sustains support for Ukraine, says @LordRickettsP Implications for Taiwan and beyond
Some thoughts ahead of this weekend's apparent unveiling of a deal on NI Protocol between UK and EU
Let's start with process
1/
Sunak has kept to his predecessors' approach of trying to keep very few people in the loop about talks: UK-EU and UK internal talks are highly separated until deals land and then selling goes overtime
Readers will recall how that went for May
2/
Didn't work in longer term for Johnson either: got him a deal, but one he and his besties now have to denounce
3/