Simon Usherwood Profile picture
Feb 27 12 tweets 2 min read
Let's consider how today has gone for what we'll now have to call the Windsor Framework

tl;dr about as well as could be hoped for, maybe better
Run-in over past weeks was distinctly hazy - no grass-rolling, no consultation, mixed signals about how much was actually settled

However, did also draw some of the sting today, given text came with no major surprises
Confusion of mixing in VdL's trip to visit King didn't help, although I think it was really a curtesy thing rather than a sell (Windsor branding didn't hurt for selling to Unionists though)
However, action through this afternoon has been very strong: lots of very positive words and coordination of positions, with no-one stepping on anyone else's toes

Hasn't been a presser that chummy since, well, ever in post-#EURef period
Legal texts came a bit late, and with full-on "we're not going to make this easy for you non-lawyers" mode, but the depth of briefing materials suggests much more thought about how this is to be sold
In terms of responses, govt has benefited from lack of leadership from opponents: no-one (still) seems to want to ride at the front in attacking

I have no idea about balance of luck and judgment on this, but No.10 has held on long enough to this to suggest latter was certainly in play
ERG seem very quiet

DUP are thinking about it

Johnson is 'studying' it

None of that was given 24 hours ago
So push today was been a very good step in resetting things: VdL's dangling of Horizon helps too in keeping movement going on this
Lots of +ve comments from abroad also weigh here: shows that others have been watching and reinforce Sunak's hand
Pitfalls still remain: DUP needs to step up or step off this deal and re-entering Executive; backbench might be unhappy about timing/form of Commons 'having its say' (although tonight's debate suggests not so much); a legal bod might discover a big issue
But for now, Sunak and VdL will take today and hope they can build from it

/end (of the beginning?)

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More from @Usherwood

Feb 27
A few more conversations and I think I see what the problem is for opponents of the deal: no one wants to be the face of this
Previous strength of hard Brexit movement came in part from breadth: lots of supporting action for other wings, so too many to be singled out and contained
That seems to be falling apart in this case (not necessarily totally, before you get too excited): some have satisfised their objectives, some have retired, some are too deep into ministerial roles, some think this will be better than what LAB might do
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
Let's think about who's got what power over this Protocol deal, shall we?
In formal terms, representatives of UK govt and EU can agree this within Withdrawal Agreement's Joint Cte

Might need some enabling legislation on each side, but largely that can be done by secondary legislation, so limited input/control from others
But that's not what we're really focusing on here, is it?

Who can make this deal get stuck or die?
Read 12 tweets
Feb 26
Right, my focaccia-making skills have not been enough to get the family to spend the rest of the evening with me, so let's think about what an NIP deal text might look like and where the traps lie

1/
Starting point is status of text itself

Is it a declaration of Jt Council to clarify functioning of Protocol, or a new EU-UK agreement that partially supercedes (small) parts of said Protocol?

2/
If former then harder to sell as a renegotiation

If latter, then has EU pushed for clear language about how also all of Protocol remains in effect

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 26
Indeed, but evident ECJ will still have some role in Protocol, so why the talk of having got this over the line?
More talk today of 'moving on' on this, but still doesn't ring true

theguardian.com/politics/2023/…
First up, the text isn't out there, which means either govt and Commission still haven't pinned it down fully or that it will raise more problems in minds of DUP/ERG (if it were a slamdunk for govt, we'd know about it)
Read 8 tweets
Feb 23
A great line-up for @SurreyPolitics discussion on the war in Ukraine: @profsarahwolff chairing @JulianBKing @LordRickettsP and Eduardo Festo @UkrEmbLondon Image
Fesko rightly points up the need to think about what comes after the war: economic and political reconstruction have to build from now and from what there is
War has revitalised the West, assuming it sustains support for Ukraine, says @LordRickettsP Implications for Taiwan and beyond
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17
Some thoughts ahead of this weekend's apparent unveiling of a deal on NI Protocol between UK and EU

Let's start with process

1/
Sunak has kept to his predecessors' approach of trying to keep very few people in the loop about talks: UK-EU and UK internal talks are highly separated until deals land and then selling goes overtime

Readers will recall how that went for May

2/
Didn't work in longer term for Johnson either: got him a deal, but one he and his besties now have to denounce

3/
Read 11 tweets

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