Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EURef

Most recents (24)

I'm not convinced that the political parties understand where "Middle England/Wales" exists. Analysis indicates Ipswich, Sevenoaks, Broxtowe, Wrexham, Newark, Preston, C.Croydon, Basingstoke, Blackley & Broughton + Warrington South are the best seats to understand #EURef (1/7)
This collection of seats represent (by that order) the closest reflection to the average distribution of the Leave vote in England/Wales. It's not the same as picking a seat made up entirely of smaller areas all of which voted 53 Leave 47 Remain (2/7)
Media/politicos often don't get this, they should be visiting parliamentary seats which have a wide degree of diversity within them to test the political temperature. Watford - which nearly made the list - was wisely used for @voteLeave Focus Groups (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Victoria Atkins MP Email: voted #REMAIN in #EURef.

Unlike Victoria her constituents in Louth & Horncastle voted overwhelmingly to #LEAVE EU by 69.4%.

Victoria stood at the 2017GE on a @Conservatives manifesto promise the UK would #LEAVE EU, SM & CU.
Victoria Atkins MP for Louth & Horncastle polled 33,733 votes in 2017GE

Her majority is 19,641

Over 41,000 people in Louth & Horncastle voted #LEAVE in #EURef

Over 7.000 more than voted for Victoria in 2017

Over twice as many as her majority

Word is that a great many people were calling for Victoria Atkin's deselection at a packed meeting of Leavers for Lincolnshire at the Bull Hotel in Horncastle last night.
Read 3 tweets
@Politics_Oxford @BBCRadio4 Did Prof Tilley have full editorial control of this programme? The reason I ask is that there is an extraordinary lack of balance in the way he presents Leave & Remain voters, and so one could be forgiven for perceiving a bias against Remain voters.

@Politics_Oxford @BBCRadio4 For example, prior to the #EURef, and persisting today, was the belief amongst #Leave voters (encouraged by Leave politicians) that the UK would be forced to join an #EUarmy.

In fact, it's constitutionally impossible for this to occur. UK has a double protection.

@Politics_Oxford @BBCRadio4 This double protection against the formation of an EU Army (let alone being forced to join one) is that
(a) the decision must be unanimous per Art. 42(2) of the European Union Treaty and
(b) any move to downgrade "unanimous" to QMV must be approved unanimously!

Read 26 tweets
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 @JennyLConstable, who voted No in 2014, eloquently explains why she would vote for independence in a future referendum on Scotland’s future.

- Scotland being told that voting No in #IndyRef would mean remaining in EU.

- Scotland’s remain vote being ignored after #EUref.
In my view, one of the best things about 2014 was the many new articulate voices that came to the fore during #IndyRef. Each person that makes there voice heard gives others the confidence to do the same.
Those who already have a significant platform can help by sharing it with others. There’s a new generation waiting to be heard.
Read 4 tweets
Tory #Brexit dimwit Daniel "Kerchingski" complains to "liberal elites" of #BBCNews about #SkyNews reporter...
Tory #Brexit patriot Daniel "Kerchingski" Takes Back Control of UK sovereignty by asking Polish Govt to overrule UK Parliament...
May 2017: Tory deputy mayor suggests guillotine for disabled children...
Read 40 tweets
As I head through the channel tunnel for probably the last time before the end of March, what do I take from talking to French and Belgian officials and academics?

First and foremost, the fun and games in the UK around ratification has produced a much more settled view elsewhere: assume that no-deal is going to happen and act accordingly

French customs officials last week were telling everyone within earshot that there's no deal until there's a deal signed and sealed, so preparation is essential

Read 10 tweets


Percentage of #LEAVE vote

Contact details for messages to MP

Walsall North @EddieHughes4WN 74.2% #LEAVE

Kingston upon Hull East @KarlTurnerMP 72.6% #LEAVE

Stoke-on-Trent North @RuthSmeeth 72.1% #LEAVE

Doncaster North @Ed_Miliband 72% #LEAVE

Great Grimsby @OnnMel 71.4% #LEAVE

Dudley North @IanAustinMP 71.4% #LEAVE

Barnsley East @Steph_Peacock 70.7% #LEAVE

Ashfield @GloriaDePiero 70.5% #LEAVE

Bolsover @DennisSkinnerMP 70.2% #LEAVE

Dagenham and Rainham @JonCruddas_1 69/9% #LEAVE

Hartlepool @MikeHillMP 69.6% #LEAVE

Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford @YvetteCooperMP 69.3% #LEAVE
Read 34 tweets
An unpopular view in Westminster, but @eucopresident is right - and all good Brexiteers (as well as Remainers) should agree with him. Here's why... (1)
The Leave campaign took the conscious decision at the start of the #EUref campaign in 2016 to keep both their definition of Brexit and any plan to deliver it vague (2)
Why? So that they wouldn't fall into Alex Salmond's trap during the #indyref of getting killed on the detail. @matthew_elliott confirmed this at the time, and it was a masterful strategy that worked (3)
Read 7 tweets
A couple of thoughts on 'alternative arrangements'

The ambiguity of 'AA' is both its strength and its weakness

On the one hand, the Commons has a broad sense that it doesn't like the backstop, so 'AA' looks like a winner, whether you have a specific & precise problem with it, or just a vague sense that 'this can't be the best option out there'

Read 15 tweets
Even more gold from @BESResearch -- while I do think that online opinion polls are generally extremely problematic due to the likely significant selection bias that it introduces, there is still some signal in the data that tells us about the nature of #leave support in 2016.
Waves 7/8 asked participants what they expect how the EU referendum is going to pan out... i.e. it asked what probability respondents attach to a #Leave vote, some subsequent waves ask whether people regret how they vote.
20 - 30% of respondents stated the probability of a #Leave success is less than 40%. Now, the nice thing is the BES also subsequently asked, how people voted and whether they regret how they voted -- it asks whether people are #remainernow
Read 5 tweets
Some random thoughts about democracy.
#EUref was the biggest exercise in democracy in our history. Nearly 35m turned out to vote.
17.4m of them voted to leave the EU.
16.1m voted to stay in.

The 16m all voted for the same thing: to leave things as they are. They will certainly have had different reasons for thinking that way and ideas about the future. But everyone knew exactly what they were voting for and what would happen if they won.

The 17.4m also voted for the same thing: to get out. And, like the Remainers, they will certainly have had different reasons for thinking that way.

Read 32 tweets
1. A short story of #Brexit in four acts. Act 1) in 2010 Coalition comes to power and presses on with dramatic #austerity, wrecking the UK's social compact... causing massive economic harm...leading to 2015 General Election
2.... in which Cameron promised an #EUref, while secretly speculating on another hung parliament with #LibDems blocking such a referendum… Yet, Act 2) lots of #austerity disgruntled #LibDems & 2010 non-voters, along with some Cons voters switched to..
3. #UKIP in 2015 General Election. #LibDems got wiped out, #Cons gained 27 seats from LibDems (out 28 overall seat gain), while #Labour lost massively to #SNP -- allowing Cameron to go alone, being pushed by #Brexiteers in #Conservative party to go ahead with #EUref.
Read 9 tweets
Theresa May's machiavelic plans have to stop.

If she really believes her negotiations are that Strong and Stable, she should stop this embarrassing political circus and openly go for her No-Deal #Brexit plan, instead of sneakily engineering it.

We know that's your plan. 1/10
When she decided to put forward her support to #BradyAmendment, she knew it would be rejected by the EU negotiators.
It was even said yesterday before she decided to support it.
But it is a sneaky way to put forward a No-Deal #Brexit and later putting the blame on the EU. 2/10
The #Backstop was negotiated BY the UK to comply with UK's red lines:
✔ No hard border (#GoodFridayAgreement)
❌ No customs unions
❌ No single market
❌ No freedom of movement
The EU wanted a soft #Brexit. So no Backstop. 3/10
Read 12 tweets
I'm sure someone else has explained this, but since several have asked me today, here's why May can't simply "remove no-deal" from the table for Corbyn:

As you'll recall, Art.50 operates on a trigger-then-resolve approach: a member state notifies of its intention to leave the EU, which starts a 2-yr period, at the end of which the state leaves without a deal, unless otherwise jointly decided

That 'otherwise' covers three options:
- the state and EU agree to extend the period;
- the state agrees a deal with the EU on terms of exit;
- the state decides not to leave.

Read 10 tweets
This morning @antoni_UK got a chance to ask @BorisJohnson a question that all of us EU citizens ask ourselves often: whether he regrets that, during the #EUref, he lured people into a false sense of certainty re: the rights of EU citizens. Johnson’s answer is shocking. 1/
But let’s first consider where that false sense of certainty came from. It primarily relates to Vote Leave’s commitment, signed by @BorisJohnson and others, on 1 June 2016. Settled status — the status all EU citizens now have to apply for — is nothing like this. 2/
❌ It’s not automatic.
❌ It’s an application.
❌ It takes rights away from us.
❌ Applications can be rejected.
❌ If unsuccessful deportation is a possibility.
❌ If successful it gives us special ID numbers on a special register only for EU citizens for special checks. 3/
Read 8 tweets
1/3 Nearly 1000 days since #EUref & I’ve still not heard of ONE single convincing #Brexit benefit from any supporter, either those known to me or via press/online.

That’s been plenty of time to do my own independent research & wherever I’ve looked, we can ONLY be worse off.
2/3 I might once have considered idea of #EU imploding & our early exit being beneficial.

But just as Brexit is tearing us apart, it has enhanced European unity so that’s not happening.

What’s left to #Brexiters are lies, electoral fraud, greed, racism & stubborn stupidity.
3/3 After years of arguing, I’ve made it a New Year vow to decline debate with still committed #Leavers as I believe they must be influenced by one or all of the above & are thus past help.

Best way to #StopBrexit2019 is to focus on the apathetic, the unsure & soft leavers.
Read 3 tweets
1/11 For a long time we didn't have the money to apply for #citizenship. Now we can manage, just barely, as long as we don't use a lawyer, so we started the process in earnest last June. I had friends fill out all the reference pages (two different friends for each of us).
2/11 We worked out when all of us had been out of the country&started to fill in the forms. Soon it became clear we had a better chance if we applied as a whole family. My EU husband applied for& received Settled Status, then took&passed the Life in the UK test, then
3/11 took&passed the spoken English test. Finally we were ready. Now we discover the passport checking service has been privatised. My husband hasn't been able to get in touch with them to find out how we can submit our applications without losing all four of our passports
Read 11 tweets
For those who might be interested, here is the final #chartofshame for 2018, with some random observations to follow

@sundersays @alantravis @briancathcart @ProfRobNewton @ladaprice @stopfundinghate
The total - 92 national newspaper splashes - is the lowest since I started collating these charts five years ago.
In all previous years, the tone has been almost entirely hostile to incomers - particularly in the build-up to #euref.
This year, there have been as many positive or neutral stories about migration as negative. (3/?)
Read 12 tweets
Today's Guardian article against the Labour leader. Here's why I don't believe it: Poverty & austerity were #1 decisive issue in UK Brexit vote. Unless the 1,034 Labour members polled were those most affected, it's not clear if their views now changed. 1/…
LSE-London School of Economics Blog: Following the #EURef in 2016 an important cross-cutting observation is that Leave voting areas had been “left behind” from globalization, with the local population having been particularly reliant on the welfare state. 2/
You can read the full LSE Blog here “Had austerity not happened, Leave support could have been up to 10% lower”. 3/…
Read 17 tweets
The last two days have been incredibly bad for EU citizens, but today has been terrible because so many think it's a good idea to disrupt *the only* lifeline EU citizens have to secure their future in the UK. I just don't know what to say to that attitude anymore. 1/
Over 900 days since #EUref and that is what we are faced with. I hate settled status with a passion. I want it to be stopped. BUT: it is in the Withdrawal Agreement and *the only* route the govt has set up to give 3.6 million people a chance to stay. Choosing to promote the 2/
disruption of that lifeline is not solidarity. Choosing to still promote it even after many EU citizens have explained why it's not the right approach .... I don't even know what that is. One way or other, disrupting the application system will not stop the underlying problem. 3/
Read 9 tweets
So although I’m watching the #scd final I find my mind wandering and worrying about #Brexit. That’s emblematic of how consuming and perinicious British politics is at the moment. I thought I would blurt out a quick thread on what happens after 29 March. 1/n
First, the one thing we can probably all agree on is that Remainers have spent a lot of time ‘fighting the last war’ so-to-peak. The passionate defence of the EU that should have come in 2016 (and in the decades before, for that matter) only manifested itself after #EUref 2/n
(Aside, one thing I bang on about a lot is that we need to be pre-emptively campaigning to save the UK sign up to the ECHR, before Theresa May or similarly minded PM takes us out of that too) 3/n
Read 18 tweets
The #LibDems had three choices at #GE2010:

1. Form a coalition with Labour and the other smaller parties (there wasn't the numbers, without including other parties too).

This required Labour to be on-board, before approaching others.

Labour refused.…
Labour really really REALLY weren't on-board... 🙄


2. They could have refused to form a coalition at all, forcing a re-run of #GE2010, potentially electing a Tory government five years earlier.

We could now be in our 8th year of a Tory government.

The last three years without The #LibDems in office have been bad enough. 😐
Read 13 tweets
Today @DExEUgov published what it calls a policy paper on #citizensrights for @The3Million and @BritishInEurope in the event of #NoDeal. We have had to wait for this for far too long and, in a nutshell, this adds additional anxieties rather than help.… 1/
To understand the immediate concerns the paper raises, read this thread by @The3Million. I share all the concerns flagged there and emphasise the conclusions drawn. This is not good. 2/
In particular, I am concerned about this change from the Withdrawal Agreement in case of #NoDeal. This will impact people immediately because it is not what had, for nearly a year now, been promised. 3/
Read 14 tweets
“Pro-Leave politicians promised us the world...Brexit would rebuild communities and protect businesses—but it’s clear that was all a farce, that we were misled.”

Here’s looking straight at you ⁦⁦@patel4witham⁩.…
Well worth reminding yourselves of what @patel4witham promised if South Asians voted Leave.

This is from India’s Economic Times before the #EURef…
Brexiters stoked nationalist & xenophobic fears as a deliberate strategy for voting Leave.

(Looking at you @michaelgove - Turkey?)

They promised all things to all people.

More Asians, less Poles.

Less Turks, more Asians.

Dividing, driving for those wanting less “other”.
Read 6 tweets

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