CA Kanan Bahl Profile picture
Feb 28 17 tweets 5 min read
Debate on the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) vs New Pension Scheme is very hot😲

The financial impact is very complex to understand🤔

I've researched for 10+ hrs, so you don't have to🥂

A thread🧵👇
In this thread, we'll cover:

[1] How is pension calculated?
[2] How much does it cost to the centre & state govts?
[3] What part of Budget goes towards pensions?
[4] What if we bring back OPS and how sustainable it is?
[5] If no, then what else can be done?
Please read this with an open mind as I'm not biased:

🔶 My Grandfather received pension and it used to be his pride

🔶 My father has been a pvt sector employee all his life

🔶 I am a young guy, and I've been equally close to both ideologies - Pensioner and Pvt Sector employee
[1] How is pension calculated?

-Basic pay can vary, but let's assume 30-40% of Gross Salary

-Pension is 50% of last drawn Basic Sal.

-So, Pension is ~15-20% of last Gross Sal.

For example,
🔶 Last Gross sal.: ₹1,00,000 p.m
🔶 Basic Sal.: ₹40,000 p.m
🔶 Pension: ₹20,000 p.m
Q. Is this the pension that retired govt employee receives till his/ her death?

A. This pension increases from time to time

As per government estimates of the increase in inflation (dearness allowance)

So, does this liability end on the death of employee? Read to know👇
Q. Does pension end on the death of govt employee?

A. No! My grandpa passed away in Dec'21

My grandma still receives a part of what grandpa used to receive & liability of govt will continue till my grandma is alive

In very rare cases, children of deceased are also eligible
[2] How much does it cost to the centre & state govts?

Centre's expense on Pension increased from:
🔶 81,803 Cr. in 2004-05
🔶 4,23,804 Cr. in 2021-22
10.2% CAGR📈

State expense on Pension increased from:
🔶 37,378 Cr. in 2004-05
🔶 4,06,867 Cr. in 2021-22
15% CAGR📈

Contd👇
This increase is pension despite the fact that govt decided to stop the OPS in 2004-05

Centre's pension bill exceeded its salaries bill in FY20🤯

Not just centre but following 3 states spent more on pension than existing salaries & wages:
🔶Gujarat
🔶Karnataka
🔶West Bengal
[3] What part of Budget goes towards pensions?

Pension expense as % of all state govts revenue has increased from:
🔶15.8% in FY05 to
🔶21.6% in FY22

For centre, it has decreased from 19.9% in FY05 to 17.8% in FY22E

All this despite govt stopping to commit OPS to new joiners
Interesting fact: Himachal Pradesh paid ~80% of their revenues to just pension

Now you have to pay for salaries, interest on borrowings and what not

What will be left for even basic maintenance? Not even talking about development
[4] What if we bring back OPS and how sustainable it is?

I completely understand the grievances of Govt employees that NPS isn't sufficient for survival in retirement

But you can see, these numbers will drown us an economy in the next 5-10 years if we bring back OPS
This will eventually have to stop

What will you choose?

A. Country faces financial crisis like some neighbouring country? or

B. Let the expenses be spent towards development?
[5] If no, then what else can be done?

I know survival is tough and expenses are high

The govt employees may assess their financial goals and invest in:
🔶Mutual Funds via SIPs and
🔶Provident Fund and other debt instruments

Also, consider no withdrawal from NPS on retirement
As a goodwill gesture, the govt should stop rolling out pensions to MPs and MLAs

If a former MP or MLA becomes a minister again, he is eligible for pension as well as his salary as a minister

This also needs to stop!

What do you think? Tell me👇
If you like this analysis and want me to keep doing it,

[1] Follow me @BahlKanan and hit the bell icon🔔
[2] Retweet the first tweet. Link👇
I write two threads a week on:
🔶Personal Finance
🔶Investing
🔶Startups

Also, I am on a mission with Physics Wallah to spread Financial Literacy to the masses

Join out YT Channel 'Finance Wallah' today👇youtube.com/@FinanceWallah…
#Oldpensionscheme #ScrapNPS_RestoreOPS #NPS #OPS #NationalPensionScheme

Just added some relevant hashtags, not my view

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More from @BahlKanan

Feb 24
The Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNIs) of India invest:
-34% in Equities
-25% in Commercial Real Estate

Src: Knight & Frank report

Don't listen blindly to fund managers who have their fees linked to Equity inflows

Benefits of Commercial Real Estate Investing🧵👇
[1] Helps in using leverage

Say, you bought an under-cons. shop of:
🔶 200 sqft
🔶 At ₹75,000 per sqft

Total cost=₹1.5 Cr

You pay 40% before completion-₹ 60L

During cons., price goes up by ~33% to ₹1L per sqft

Gain=₹25k per sqft or ₹50L
ROI=83% (₹50L on ₹60L invt)
[2] Higher Rental Yield

Rental yield = (Rent p.a./Mkt value of prop.)*100

Residential Rental yields are generally 2-3% in India

Commercial rental yields are generally over 5-6%

As the area flourishes, rentals appreciate more with mkt value of commercial properties
Read 8 tweets
Feb 23
My relative passed away during covid 😥

Leaving a housewife, two kids aged 18 and 21 😔

And with a Home loan of 1 Cr+ and Car Loan of 15L+ 🥵

This could've been avoided via Term Insurance. Everything about Term plans👇
1/ What is Term Plan?

Term Plan is an insurance product with pure risk cover

This means that if you have it and you die within the cover age

Your family gets the cover amount
2/ I won't get my premium back, if I stay alive?

No you won't. This is a wrong way of looking at it

Think of my relative

Paying 2k-4k per annum on a cover of 2 Cr won't hurt much

Leaving your family with loans and without corpus to live ahead, will really pain you
Read 8 tweets
Feb 20
Building Taj Mahal costed ₹4.5 Cr from 1631-1653

Assuming:
A. 4% inflation CAGR
B. In last 400 yrs

Value of those ₹4.5 Cr today is ₹293 Lakh Crores🤯

This is more than our GDP and even stock mkt val📈

Ticket sales are ~₹150 Cr p.a.

You think it made any economic sense?
Taj Mahal is definitely a superb structure and when you look at it from close, your next reaction is WOW

When you know how it was built, it shows how much hard work everyone had put in

My point is not that. Not disputing in the quality

Did it make any economic sense?
The economic impact is definitely higher than 150 Cr and hotels, restaurants, guides, also make money due to tourism in Agra

Couldn't find a number here for this but still no matter how huge it is, it won't justify the cost of building a monument like Taj at 4.5 cr in 1630
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
RBI has increased the repo rate again

Home Loan EMI's have increased by 20%+

5 ways how you can KICK OUT Home Loan within 8 Years (instead of 20): 🧵👇
1. Inflate EMIs with Salary

Your salary increases every year, right? Then why shouldn't your EMIs?

Say, if your salary increases by 10% p.a., and you do the same with your EMI

The tenure reduces to <10 Years (FROM 20 Years)

Step-up EMIs are as powerful as step-up SIPs
2. Dedicating your bonus to Loan repayments

Say, if your EMI is 1/2 of your salary

and you get 10% bonus every year on your yearly salary

and you dedicate all of that towards your loan

The tenure reduces to 12 Years (FROM 20 Years)
Read 10 tweets
Feb 7
📢Adani Bonds worth $1 Bn finds Buyers in international market

This comes after bonds were being hammered in the international market as institutions started rejecting them as collateral

Adani Enterprises Limited (AEL) scrip is ~15% today
Covering all news about the Adani group

Sharing only facts. No biases

Follow me (@BahlKanan) and hit the bell icon to stay updated
#Adani #AdaniGroup #AdaniGreen #AdaniPorts #AdaniTransmission #AdaniEnterprises #AdaniEnterprises

Disclaimer: Not investment advice

Disclosure: No position held
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
"Please suggest me a stock trading at below ₹10"

Vodafone Idea's retail investors grew from ~5L in 2018 to ~29L now🔼

People look at stocks trading below ₹10 / ₹50

As Vodafone Idea (VI) rose ~20% yesterday📈

A thread on why this analogy is not correct🧵👇
[1] Price of share is a factor of valuation & shares

Say, a Dominos Medium Pizza costs ₹600 & has 6 slices

Among 6 friends we'll pay ₹100 each [₹600/6]

What if I ask you for ₹200 for a slice? You won't buy it right?

How about ₹50 for a slice? You'll buy

Keep reading👇 Image
What if I offer you a packet of Lays whose MRP is ₹10 at ₹15?

You won't buy it right?

But you think otherwise while buying shares

You think that something priced at ₹15 is cheaper vis-a-vis what is priced at ₹100
Read 12 tweets

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