1. The NASA Firms fire data strongly suggests that the explosions in #Yeysk ccurred on an old Soviet air force facility in the area of the base's ordinance magazine. I make the base as an old bomber base with a weapons magazine consistent with that use.
2. My guess is that, based on the range from known Ukrainian positions, it might have been hit with GLSDB's at their extreme range. If not and if we rule out more smoking accidents, the Ukrainians have some capability that is not currently known.
3. Here is the base. On the right you can see overgrown Christmas trees near the 11,000 foot runway that suggest that this was once a bomber base. In can't find any record online so it's just a guess. Lower right shows the FIRMS fires in relation to the runway. ImageImageImage
4. I don't know where Russia is launching cruise or SAM missiles from in this area but it's possible they were storing them in the magazine that is still protected by what appears to be mine fields. Here are the FIRMS fires. The light color indicates it happened >24 hours ago. Image
5. And here is good look at what I think is an ordinance magazine showing the location of the suspected explosions not near any of the structures so perhaps just stored out in the open. Image

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Mar 3
1. After many thoughtful responses to my question regarding what was happening in June 2020 to explain why Jack Smith's subpoenas went that far back, I think @BaddCompani pointed me in the right direction. In May 2020, FPOTUS went to Camp David, at least twice.
2. Around the time of the first Camp David visit, armed protestors entered the Michigan state Capitol. During the last May trip, the weekend of May 16-18, is when I think the coup plot may have been hatched. After that, FPOTUS called for armed forces to be deployed to DC. ImageImage
3. During this time FPOTUS was reeling from reports he was unable or unwilling to call out Putin after the reports he had put cash bounties on US service members in Afghanistan. I went back to try to understand why I had forgotten the Camp David meetings. I had filing deadline
Read 12 tweets
Mar 3
After watching prosecutor's cross-examination I concluded that a quick Murdaugh verdict would likely mean a conviction. Thought the defense would hope that it would take time. Every day would add to his chances of a mistrial. We'll know soon if I was right. #murdaughverdictwatch
Guilty. Image
Guilty Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 28
1. There was reporting yesterday that Russia may be planning a large-scale aerial attack on Kyiv and the areas in the North. On Telegram there is currently a report of sounds of mopeds above Sumy.
2. The way the predicted attack was described sounded to me as if the Kremlin was going to pretend it has the same capability as US and NATO in conducting a SEAD attack that starts with drones and eventually destroys air defense missile systems. But Putin doesn't have what we
3. have, Ukraine has what's needed and the small noisy Iranian drones can be handled by a combination of electronic counter-measures and use of US M-2 50 caliber machine guns and Soviet 23 mm anti-air guns. The Russian hope in such an attack is that the
Read 6 tweets
Feb 27
1. Since I saw Scott Perry's involvement and looked at his background, I considered him the likely commander of the military force that was to be used to effect Mike Flynn's planned military coup. IMO the attack on the Capitol was just the pretext. So I've considered
2. the litigation over Perry's phone more than just important, to me it's critical to our need to expose the crime of levying war treason that carries life in prison that means people charged with it would be likely denied bail pending trial.
3. In my view we have not seen grand jury subpoenas for #45, Flynn, Perry, Taylor-Greene, Gaetz, Gossar, Jordan, etc., because they're targets & targets aren't generally called to a grand jury.

Friday, @kyledcheney @politico dropped Chief Judge Howell's redacted order that is
Read 10 tweets
Feb 26
1. Saturday's action in Donetsk started with Russia #Wagner PMC taking #Yahidne north of Bakhmut as the weather signaled time's running out on Russia's winter offense. The battlefield success was short-lived as #Ukraine beat back Russian
2. assaults by blowing a dam north of #Bakhmut flooding the Russian line of advance and complicated Russia's already taxed logistics.
Link to video of the resulting flood.
3. Further south in Vuhledar, the surviving redeployed Russian forces from the #Mariupol #GLSDB attack were thrown headlong into a suicide attack on #Vuhledar with predictable results.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 25
1. China's state controlled media announced that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko will make a state visit to China in three days. Such short notice tells me something may be up.
2. The only thing that Lukashenko has to offer is Potash. China is the second largest producer but still can't meet domestic demand. With the apparent PLA plan to see China suffer sanctions Xi might be firming investingnews.com/daily/resource…
3. his relation to insure steady supply. Also, if Xi does not give Putin the weapons he's requesting, Russia may cease to be a dependable source. This can be due to Putin's erratic behavior but also due to factors related to western sanctions that my reduce Russian
Read 5 tweets

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