1/ Mobilised Russians from Irkutsk are being sent "to slaughter" in Ukraine and have been told that they are "expendable". Their commanders have fired at them to 'motivate' them and their unit has taken so many casualties that it has had to be reconstituted six times. ⬇️
2/ In a video, the men say:
"Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin], we turn to you [for help]. We are mobilised from the Irkutsk region, regiment 1439, we were sent to the Donetsk People's Republic from the city of Novosibirsk on 31 December 22.
3/ We ask for your assistance and to deal with the lawless and criminal orders of our command.
4/ We have been transferred to the First Slavic Brigade of the DPR, where they formed assault units out of us soldiers of the territorial defence in one day, sending us to storm the Avdiivka fortifications without any artillery support.
5/ Communications, sappers, reconnaissance have been sent to slaughter. Command told us directly that we are expendable, and that the only chance we have of returning home is getting injured. We do not know the names and ranks of the commanders, as they do not tell us.
6/ There is no point in contacting the local military prosecutor's office, as they are in full collusion with the commanders of the First Slavic Brigade. Soldiers of the battalions of regiment 1439 have already made two appeals before us.
7/ At this point this battalion has been almost completely destroyed. The remnants of the men have also been distributed to the First Slavic Brigade. Due to the situation, we find ourselves in a desperate situation, as the command is indifferent to our lives.
8/ The command is replenishing the unit with new mobilised for the sixth time - this is evidence of the incompetence of our superiors and of the whole unit. Please help. There is nowhere else to turn."
9/ The men have also written desperate text messages to relatives asking for help. They say they are being sent "without cover, without escort, none of the DPR fighters are sent. BMPs drop people off in the field." The BMPs are so unreliable that half broke down en route.
10/ The DPR commanders have reportedly fired from armoured vehicles at the Russian mobiks to 'motivate' them into attacking Ukrainian positions. "Yesterday the DNRovites shot from a BMP at the house [where the men were sheltering] because the guys refused to storm."
11/ Not surprisingly, the assaults have been a bloody debacle. "It's a madhouse, you can't fight like that," one man says. "Yesterday the whole detachment was put down with mortars. They didn't even reach the [Ukrainian] trenches." /end
1/ The Ukrainian drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent. Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' notes that "there are now regions where there isn't a single accessible gas station." The channel's subscribers have shared how the gasoline shortage is changing their daily lives:
3/👨🦱 Mikhail, a tourist bus driver:
"Every week, new limits come out of the blue. What do you do when you and your passengers have no fuel at night, or they don't give you fuel because of restrictions? Our typical fill-up is 300-400 litres.
1/ Ukraine's drone blockade of Crimea is tightening, with yet more ships hit in the Sea of Azov. Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the area in response. This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports. ⬇️
2/ Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia's grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through this route. Wheat market prices have already risen 4% as a result.
3/ The Russian border services have also reportedly told shipping companies that passage through the Kerch Strait between the Sea of Azov and Black Sea has similarly been suspended. This effectively blocks ships from passing under the bridge to Crimea.
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️
2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised.
3/ He was abducted on 8 April 2024 by soldiers of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' after being suspected of spying on the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. The men took him to a nearby abandoned mine repurposed as a torture centre.
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:
– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.