1/ Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following the (likely Ukrainian) bomb attack on the bridge last October. Here's why this is significant.
2/ Seven fuel tankers ruptured on a 4,000 ton train that was, apparently coincidentally, crossing the rail bridge when the explosion on the parallel road bridge happened. It caused a huge fire that lasted several hours.
3/ (For more on the background to the explosion, see the thread I compiled below on the Russian, Bulgarian, Georgian and Armenian account of what led up to it. It's the most detailed and most fully documented account that I know of.)
4/ The fire could have been a lot worse – the rail bridge was likely saved by the quick thinking of the train crew (see the thread below), who unhitched the burning tankers and got the rest of the train away to safety.
5/ Nonetheless, it still caused significant damage to the rail bridge. Further damage was likely caused by helicopters water-bombing the train to put out the fire. Video from the scene afterwards showed a lot of surface buckling.
6/ Before the attack, the rail bridge was a crucial element of Russia's war effort in southern Ukraine. It was used to bring huge quantities of troops, military equipment, fuel and ammunition to Crimea.
7/ Not surprisingly, Russia made it a priority to repair the damaged track and restore traffic over the rail bridge. However, while this was a propaganda boost, it obscured some major issues.
8/ Following the explosion, the Russians converted the rail bridge temporarily to single-track use. Videos such as the one below, from only a few days ago, show trains using the other track on the far side from the road bridge.
9/ What kind of damage might have been caused to the rail bridge's structure? Unlike the road bridge, which has a single deck, the rail bridge has two in parallel, with tracks sitting on top of twin decks made of steel girders supported by double piers.
10/ Crucially, the track rests on top of an EPS (expanded polystyrene) layer, covered by a geoblanket, which can be seen being installed in the pictures below. This will have saved a lot of weight but is likely to be very vulnerable to heat.
11/ The video in tweet 5 above shows two distinct types of damage: the steel walkway and the rail tracks are severely deformed. Damage to the underlying deck, the girder main structure and pier bearings is not visible.
12/ There's no doubt that the span was exposed to very high temperatures. The deformation of the tracks indicates temperatures of 1200-1400°C. As can be seen from this frame of the video, the track directly underneath the burned wagons was melted.
13/ The heat will almost certainly have damaged the underlying geoblanket and EPS layer. It's also likely that the rubber bearings between the girders and the pier cap were affected. They protect the piers from vibration and absorb the girder's movement under heavy loads.
14/ To compensate for the loss of one side of the rail bridge, the Russians reopened the old ferry crossing between Crimea and Russia, at the narrowest point of the Kerch Strait, north of the bridge.
15/ This has had to accommodate a huge amount of traffic – between 9 October and 24 November 2022, 2,622 rail cars, 24,227 vehicles and 37,114 passengers were transported by ferry. There have been lengthy tailbacks due to limited ferry capacity.
16/ The damaged road spans were replaced over the last five months, leading to a full reopening of the road bridge on 23 February 2023. This should enable the ferry traffic to be diverted onto the road bridge.
17/ With transport capacity now fully restored on the road bridge, the Russians have likely decided that the time is right to fully repair the rail bridge. It's probable that they've removed the damaged span to replace the damaged EPS layer and fully inspect the structure.
18/ Taking the span out should also enable them to inspect and if necessary replace the bearings on the piers, which would likely have been impossible to do with the span still in place.
This work is likely to take a while, particularly if the girders need repairs.
20/ It's been reported that Russia is aiming to complete the repair job by July 2023, although the Russians are clearly working hard to expedite repairs before then. /end
(With many thanks to @andre_bida for the engineering explanations and diagrams!)
1/ In fact, not even North Korea does this. The last country to name a warship after a living leader was the Soviet Union with the 1982 Kiev-class aircraft carrier Leonid Brezhnev. This was during the final phase of the Brezhnev cult of personality.
2/ Even for authoritarian states and dictatorships, this is highly unusual. The Kriegsmarine never named a major ship after Adolf Hitler. Imperial Japan had a major taboo against naming ships after living people. No Soviet warship was named after Stalin.
3/ As far as I'm aware no country has *ever* named an entire class of warships after a living leader - not Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, North Korea, Communist China, or the Soviet Union. So this would be genuinely new ground in terms of state-sponsored sycophancy.
1/ A Russian soldier says that only the "marginalised" – drug addicts, the homeless and the destitute – are joining the Russian army these days . He says that the war continues because people in Russia profit from it and that its aim is to "dominate and humiliate" Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Former Wagner soldier Ruslan from Dagestan, who is now serving under contract to the Russian Ministry of Defence, tells a friend that many soldiers lack motivation because the goals and reasons for what's happening are unclear to them.
3/ "You ask questions that I don’t have answers to, because even when you ask yourself these questions, you ask yourself: why the fuck am I here? You're trying to find an answer in your head, but there's no answer."
1/ A shadow war is being fought over the Russian army's access to Starlink. The Russians face a constant battle with Starlink itself and Ukrainian hackers deactivating their terminals, and obstruction from the Russian customs service holding up grey imports of Starlink devices.⬇️
2/ Starlink is banned from being exported to Russia, but can be obtained unofficially through grey imports from Central Asia and China. Most Starlink terminals used by Russian forces are obtained by volunteers and shipped across Russia's southern land borders.
3/ However, they are vulnerable to disruption by Starlink itself, which periodically disables terminals located in Russian-held territory, they are targeted by hackers, and the very slow and cumbersome Russian customs process holds up imports for long periods.
1/ When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the town of Irpin, just west of Kyiv, was the closest that Russia reached to the capital. Its soldiers targeted Christian facilities in the town, destroying buildings and burning Ukrainian-language Bibles in the street. ⬇️
2/ One of the buildings targeted by the Russians was the Field Ministries Training Centre of @MissionEurasia, an international Christian organisation based in Wheaton, Illinois. The group trains missionaries throughout the former Soviet Union and provides humanitarian aid.
3/ After the Russian army reached Irpin on 6 March 2022, the Mission Eurasia training centre was reportedly taken over by Russian special forces, who used it as a barracks and stacked Bibles to barricade windows.
1/ 790 Russian soldiers from a single unit have died at Pokrovsk, according to a Russian combat medic, with another 900 having deserted according to leaked figures. Another soldier from the same unit says that losses are running at 80-90%. ⬇️
2/ The unnamed medic says that she is serving with the 39th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 35390) at Pokrovsk. She describes how she was on the front line with "young guys" aged 19 or 20:
3/ "They were running around, and we had dugouts, I think. And I say No, no, fuck that. They ran, in short, into a Ukrainian minefield and it just tore them apart. Well, it's not like they were 200, dead, none of them died. Well, they were just blown up really badly.
1/ How does a false report that Kupyansk has been captured by Russia come to be delivered on camera to Vladimir Putin? A Russian warblogger blames a military reporting process that prizes low-value metrics, rewards blind optimism, and eliminates nuance. ⬇️
"The transfer of operational information from the bottom up in the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Russian Armed Forces is accompanied by a consistent transformation of the initial data as it moves up the chain of command."
3/ "This process is not a system, but an established practice and is based on stable semantic and organisational mechanisms.
At the level of a motorised rifle/airborne/assault platoon, initial observations are recorded in formulations that imply the completion of the action.