1/ Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following the (likely Ukrainian) bomb attack on the bridge last October. Here's why this is significant.
2/ Seven fuel tankers ruptured on a 4,000 ton train that was, apparently coincidentally, crossing the rail bridge when the explosion on the parallel road bridge happened. It caused a huge fire that lasted several hours.
3/ (For more on the background to the explosion, see the thread I compiled below on the Russian, Bulgarian, Georgian and Armenian account of what led up to it. It's the most detailed and most fully documented account that I know of.)
4/ The fire could have been a lot worse – the rail bridge was likely saved by the quick thinking of the train crew (see the thread below), who unhitched the burning tankers and got the rest of the train away to safety.
5/ Nonetheless, it still caused significant damage to the rail bridge. Further damage was likely caused by helicopters water-bombing the train to put out the fire. Video from the scene afterwards showed a lot of surface buckling.
6/ Before the attack, the rail bridge was a crucial element of Russia's war effort in southern Ukraine. It was used to bring huge quantities of troops, military equipment, fuel and ammunition to Crimea.
7/ Not surprisingly, Russia made it a priority to repair the damaged track and restore traffic over the rail bridge. However, while this was a propaganda boost, it obscured some major issues.
8/ Following the explosion, the Russians converted the rail bridge temporarily to single-track use. Videos such as the one below, from only a few days ago, show trains using the other track on the far side from the road bridge.
9/ What kind of damage might have been caused to the rail bridge's structure? Unlike the road bridge, which has a single deck, the rail bridge has two in parallel, with tracks sitting on top of twin decks made of steel girders supported by double piers.
10/ Crucially, the track rests on top of an EPS (expanded polystyrene) layer, covered by a geoblanket, which can be seen being installed in the pictures below. This will have saved a lot of weight but is likely to be very vulnerable to heat.
11/ The video in tweet 5 above shows two distinct types of damage: the steel walkway and the rail tracks are severely deformed. Damage to the underlying deck, the girder main structure and pier bearings is not visible.
12/ There's no doubt that the span was exposed to very high temperatures. The deformation of the tracks indicates temperatures of 1200-1400°C. As can be seen from this frame of the video, the track directly underneath the burned wagons was melted.
13/ The heat will almost certainly have damaged the underlying geoblanket and EPS layer. It's also likely that the rubber bearings between the girders and the pier cap were affected. They protect the piers from vibration and absorb the girder's movement under heavy loads.
14/ To compensate for the loss of one side of the rail bridge, the Russians reopened the old ferry crossing between Crimea and Russia, at the narrowest point of the Kerch Strait, north of the bridge.
15/ This has had to accommodate a huge amount of traffic – between 9 October and 24 November 2022, 2,622 rail cars, 24,227 vehicles and 37,114 passengers were transported by ferry. There have been lengthy tailbacks due to limited ferry capacity.
16/ The damaged road spans were replaced over the last five months, leading to a full reopening of the road bridge on 23 February 2023. This should enable the ferry traffic to be diverted onto the road bridge.
17/ With transport capacity now fully restored on the road bridge, the Russians have likely decided that the time is right to fully repair the rail bridge. It's probable that they've removed the damaged span to replace the damaged EPS layer and fully inspect the structure.
18/ Taking the span out should also enable them to inspect and if necessary replace the bearings on the piers, which would likely have been impossible to do with the span still in place.
This work is likely to take a while, particularly if the girders need repairs.
20/ It's been reported that Russia is aiming to complete the repair job by July 2023, although the Russians are clearly working hard to expedite repairs before then. /end
(With many thanks to @andre_bida for the engineering explanations and diagrams!)
1/ The US attempted to send several Iran-bound bombers to an Italian air base without prior authorisation and was refused permission by the Italian government while the aircraft were in flight. The news comes a day after Spain disclosed it was refusing US military overflights. ⬇️
2/ Corriere della Sella and La Republicca report that on Fridary 27 March, the Italian Chief of the Defence Staff, General Luciano Portolano, was informed that several US bombers were inbound to the Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, controlled by the Italian Air Force.
3/ However, nobody on the US side had requested authorisation or consulted the Italian military leadership. The plan was only communicated to the Italians while the planes were already in flight.
1/ Russians are facing an 'internet tax', reportedly imposed by a secret decree from Vladimir Putin, of 150 rubles ($1.84) for each gigabyte of VPN traffic they use. This is being seen by commentators as a new way of suppressing Telegram's 100 million users in Russia. ⬇️
2/ The BBC Russian Service reports that the FSB has told the Ministry of Digital Development to impose a tax on every gigabyte of VPN traffic after an initial 15 Gb. The FSB wants to discourage Russians from connecting to foreign VPN servers to access resources blocked in Russia.
3/ The tax is due to be put into force by 1 May 2026, despite the opposition of the Ministry of Digital Development and public criticism. It's a stark indication of how the security establishment (the 'siloviki') has become the dominant player in the Russian government.
1/ Recruitment for Russia's drone forces has slumped, despite an intensive recruitment campaign, because potential volunteers fear being forced to become stormtroopers. The situation is so severe that a Russian general has suggested moving drone forces out of the Russian army. ⬇️
2/ Alexey Chadayev, the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre – a leading Russian drone development organisation – recounts a conversation that he had recently with a Russian lieutenant general about the army's failing UAV pilot recruitment programme:
3/ "Today I had a conversation with a lieutenant general, a longtime acquaintance of mine and, without exaggeration, a senior comrade and mentor. He gave me an idea I'd like to share with the channel.
1/ Without Telegram, which is now fully banned for Russian military use, Russian soldiers in Ukraine are finding it harder – or impossible – to do previously everyday tasks. A brief summary by a Russian signalman highlights specific problems:
2/ "Just to give you a little context, it's worth mentioning that:
Without a little help, I can't:
- download current height matrices for work communications tasks from the ZOV map channel [for an officially approved map app]
3/ "- download current cartographic data for the same purposes
- download a fresh archive of the communications software pack
- get prompt advice on setting up a specific network hardware system for my comrades at the front.
- And I can't do a lot of other work-related things.
1/ Yet more Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia's Baltic oil terminals have prompted angry comments from Russian warbloggers about air defence failures. Interestingly, this is also leading to hitherto unthinkable condemnations of Putin himself. ⬇️
"Regular air raids, and they haven't even deployed mobile task forces to the border to intercept UAVs, and there are no firing positions on site."
3/ "The "system" is working like a rotting brontosaurus. Those fucking guys are already eating their tails, and the "brains" are afraid to show independence...
1/ Spain has banned US military aircraft from using its airspace to attack Iran, forcing them to take much longer routes around the Iberian Peninsula. The Spanish government says it will not support a war that lacks legal cover. ⬇️
2/ The Spanish newspaper El País reports that Spain has banned the use of the air bases at Rota and Morón de la Frontera to US fighter aircraft, bombers, and tanker aircraft involved in the war in Iran, including those based in the UK.
3/ This is resulting in US bombers flying from England or directly from the US to take circuitous routes to avoid Spanish airspace, for instance diverting to fly via international airspace in the Strait of Gibraltar.