1/ Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following the (likely Ukrainian) bomb attack on the bridge last October. Here's why this is significant.
2/ Seven fuel tankers ruptured on a 4,000 ton train that was, apparently coincidentally, crossing the rail bridge when the explosion on the parallel road bridge happened. It caused a huge fire that lasted several hours.
3/ (For more on the background to the explosion, see the thread I compiled below on the Russian, Bulgarian, Georgian and Armenian account of what led up to it. It's the most detailed and most fully documented account that I know of.)
4/ The fire could have been a lot worse – the rail bridge was likely saved by the quick thinking of the train crew (see the thread below), who unhitched the burning tankers and got the rest of the train away to safety.
5/ Nonetheless, it still caused significant damage to the rail bridge. Further damage was likely caused by helicopters water-bombing the train to put out the fire. Video from the scene afterwards showed a lot of surface buckling.
6/ Before the attack, the rail bridge was a crucial element of Russia's war effort in southern Ukraine. It was used to bring huge quantities of troops, military equipment, fuel and ammunition to Crimea.
7/ Not surprisingly, Russia made it a priority to repair the damaged track and restore traffic over the rail bridge. However, while this was a propaganda boost, it obscured some major issues.
8/ Following the explosion, the Russians converted the rail bridge temporarily to single-track use. Videos such as the one below, from only a few days ago, show trains using the other track on the far side from the road bridge.
9/ What kind of damage might have been caused to the rail bridge's structure? Unlike the road bridge, which has a single deck, the rail bridge has two in parallel, with tracks sitting on top of twin decks made of steel girders supported by double piers.
10/ Crucially, the track rests on top of an EPS (expanded polystyrene) layer, covered by a geoblanket, which can be seen being installed in the pictures below. This will have saved a lot of weight but is likely to be very vulnerable to heat.
11/ The video in tweet 5 above shows two distinct types of damage: the steel walkway and the rail tracks are severely deformed. Damage to the underlying deck, the girder main structure and pier bearings is not visible.
12/ There's no doubt that the span was exposed to very high temperatures. The deformation of the tracks indicates temperatures of 1200-1400°C. As can be seen from this frame of the video, the track directly underneath the burned wagons was melted.
13/ The heat will almost certainly have damaged the underlying geoblanket and EPS layer. It's also likely that the rubber bearings between the girders and the pier cap were affected. They protect the piers from vibration and absorb the girder's movement under heavy loads.
14/ To compensate for the loss of one side of the rail bridge, the Russians reopened the old ferry crossing between Crimea and Russia, at the narrowest point of the Kerch Strait, north of the bridge.
15/ This has had to accommodate a huge amount of traffic – between 9 October and 24 November 2022, 2,622 rail cars, 24,227 vehicles and 37,114 passengers were transported by ferry. There have been lengthy tailbacks due to limited ferry capacity.
16/ The damaged road spans were replaced over the last five months, leading to a full reopening of the road bridge on 23 February 2023. This should enable the ferry traffic to be diverted onto the road bridge.
17/ With transport capacity now fully restored on the road bridge, the Russians have likely decided that the time is right to fully repair the rail bridge. It's probable that they've removed the damaged span to replace the damaged EPS layer and fully inspect the structure.
18/ Taking the span out should also enable them to inspect and if necessary replace the bearings on the piers, which would likely have been impossible to do with the span still in place.
This work is likely to take a while, particularly if the girders need repairs.
20/ It's been reported that Russia is aiming to complete the repair job by July 2023, although the Russians are clearly working hard to expedite repairs before then. /end
(With many thanks to @andre_bida for the engineering explanations and diagrams!)
1/ Russian warbloggers are wondering how it was possible for Ukraine to destroy the Russian border patrol ship Izumrud while it was at anchor. The vessel was reportedly hit by two Ukrainian Sargan-3000 uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). ⬇️
2/ The attack is said to have caused several "200 and 300" (deaths and injuries). The big question, as 'Informant' comments, is "How the unmanned hull craft reached the ship at its berth."
3/ 'Evil Sailor' has "some very unpleasant questions for the border guards:
1. Why was the ship stationed in one place for so long when it was necessary to constantly change its base?
2. Why was the ship stationed in a completely unprotected area?
1/ Ukraine's dominance of the 'lower sky' and its widespread use of 'waiting drones' has made large-scale Russian vehicle assaults virtually impossible. A Russian video shows numerous Ukrainian drones sitting on a road, waiting to carry out attacks on Russian forces. ⬇️
2/ Commenting on the video, the Russian medical warblogger 'Visiting Doc' dedicates it "to fans of tank breakthroughs and brutal assaults" and comments: "Low-altitude superiority is one of the main reasons why evacuation becomes a nearly impossible task."
3/ The tactic is used by both sides, but Ukraine's current dominance in drones has made it the principal user of the tactic. Both vehicles and individual soldiers are regularly targeted by 'waiters'.
1/ Crypto scammers have been targeting UK X users for the past few months with hundreds of scam adverts showing AI pictures of UK political and media figures. However, in the latest campaign, they've inadvertently given away that they're almost certainly Russians or Ukrainians.
2/ The campaign always involves AI-generated pictures of people like @Nigel_Farage and Emily @maitlis in situations of conflict and tension, with a cryptic subject lines. They're posted from blue-tick accounts ostensibly located around the world, but using VPNs.
3/ Hundreds of throw-away accounts, some registered as long ago as 2010, are being used. These have clearly been bought in bulk from cyber criminals who registered them a long time ago. Combined with the blue ticks and ad spending, some serious money is being invested in this.
1/ Ukraine's landing last week of an armed unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) on the occupied Kinburn Spit is being viewed with concern by Russian warbloggers. They warn that it shows Ukraine overtaking Russia technologically. ⬇️
2/ 'Archangel of Special Forces' writes with evident dismay:
"The "troublemakers," who previously gained notoriety for hanging a cloth on the Kinburn Peninsula using a drone and claiming control, have posted footage showing the use of an unmanned robotic vehicle (URV)."
3/ "And not just its use, but the deployment of the URV via an unmanned boat, which approached the shore, and the robotic complex then disembarked.
1/ Officials in the southwestern Russian city of Stavropol have been told to ditch their cars amidst the ongoing fuel shortage, and use bicycles instead. The move is the latest Russian attempt to save increasingly scarce fuel after Ukraine's destruction of Russian refineries. ⬇️
2/ The Governor of Stavropol, Vladimir Vladimirov, has urged officials to switch to bicycles to save fuel. He said:
"Let's start saving by ourselves. Dear heads [of departments], I urge you all. Within the city, you can get around on foot or by bicycle."
3/ "Within the district, I believe you can adjust your work plans in such a way as to minimize the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel. Therefore, starting tomorrow, please leave your cars at home, and stop wasting the already scarce gasoline and diesel fuel."
1/ Ukraine's relentless drone campaign in the Sea of Azov and Crimea is having increasingly serious effects on Russian military operations and daily life. A gloomy report from the region highlights the impacts of the campaign.
"Over a week ago, the enemy intensified UAV attacks in Russia's internal waters of the Sea of Azov—an area where Russia’s sovereignty fully applies, meaning these events must legally be viewed as attacks on any part of our country's land territory.
3/ "After repeatedly striking tankers and other civilian vessels with drones flying at high altitudes (1–1.2 km) from the Zaporizhzhia region, the enemy launched an assault on the area of the Crimean Bridge.