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Mar 2, 2023 21 tweets 8 min read Read on X
1/ Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following the (likely Ukrainian) bomb attack on the bridge last October. Here's why this is significant.
2/ Seven fuel tankers ruptured on a 4,000 ton train that was, apparently coincidentally, crossing the rail bridge when the explosion on the parallel road bridge happened. It caused a huge fire that lasted several hours.
3/ (For more on the background to the explosion, see the thread I compiled below on the Russian, Bulgarian, Georgian and Armenian account of what led up to it. It's the most detailed and most fully documented account that I know of.)
4/ The fire could have been a lot worse – the rail bridge was likely saved by the quick thinking of the train crew (see the thread below), who unhitched the burning tankers and got the rest of the train away to safety.
5/ Nonetheless, it still caused significant damage to the rail bridge. Further damage was likely caused by helicopters water-bombing the train to put out the fire. Video from the scene afterwards showed a lot of surface buckling.
6/ Before the attack, the rail bridge was a crucial element of Russia's war effort in southern Ukraine. It was used to bring huge quantities of troops, military equipment, fuel and ammunition to Crimea.
7/ Not surprisingly, Russia made it a priority to repair the damaged track and restore traffic over the rail bridge. However, while this was a propaganda boost, it obscured some major issues.
8/ Following the explosion, the Russians converted the rail bridge temporarily to single-track use. Videos such as the one below, from only a few days ago, show trains using the other track on the far side from the road bridge.
9/ What kind of damage might have been caused to the rail bridge's structure? Unlike the road bridge, which has a single deck, the rail bridge has two in parallel, with tracks sitting on top of twin decks made of steel girders supported by double piers.
10/ Crucially, the track rests on top of an EPS (expanded polystyrene) layer, covered by a geoblanket, which can be seen being installed in the pictures below. This will have saved a lot of weight but is likely to be very vulnerable to heat.
11/ The video in tweet 5 above shows two distinct types of damage: the steel walkway and the rail tracks are severely deformed. Damage to the underlying deck, the girder main structure and pier bearings is not visible.
12/ There's no doubt that the span was exposed to very high temperatures. The deformation of the tracks indicates temperatures of 1200-1400°C. As can be seen from this frame of the video, the track directly underneath the burned wagons was melted.
13/ The heat will almost certainly have damaged the underlying geoblanket and EPS layer. It's also likely that the rubber bearings between the girders and the pier cap were affected. They protect the piers from vibration and absorb the girder's movement under heavy loads.
14/ To compensate for the loss of one side of the rail bridge, the Russians reopened the old ferry crossing between Crimea and Russia, at the narrowest point of the Kerch Strait, north of the bridge.
15/ This has had to accommodate a huge amount of traffic – between 9 October and 24 November 2022, 2,622 rail cars, 24,227 vehicles and 37,114 passengers were transported by ferry. There have been lengthy tailbacks due to limited ferry capacity.
16/ The damaged road spans were replaced over the last five months, leading to a full reopening of the road bridge on 23 February 2023. This should enable the ferry traffic to be diverted onto the road bridge.
17/ With transport capacity now fully restored on the road bridge, the Russians have likely decided that the time is right to fully repair the rail bridge. It's probable that they've removed the damaged span to replace the damaged EPS layer and fully inspect the structure.
18/ Taking the span out should also enable them to inspect and if necessary replace the bearings on the piers, which would likely have been impossible to do with the span still in place.

This work is likely to take a while, particularly if the girders need repairs.
20/ It's been reported that Russia is aiming to complete the repair job by July 2023, although the Russians are clearly working hard to expedite repairs before then. /end

(With many thanks to @andre_bida for the engineering explanations and diagrams!)

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 2
1/ Russian Railways is facing a worsening crisis. 300,000 disused railway wagons are congesting the network, entire freight trains have been abandoned for months, there are critical shortages of locomotives and workers, and a major drop in loading across the network. ⬇️ Image
2/ Russian Railways (RZD) has been in trouble for several years. It is facing an extremely severe shortage of staff, with some divisions of the company reportedly as much as 60% understaffed.
3/ RZD's problems have a huge impact on Russia's economy. It handles 47% of all cargo transport in Russia, and as much as 87% if pipelines are excluded. It's vital to the economy and the Russian military alike, as Russia's roads can't accomodate all the freight carried by rail.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 1
1/ Economic distress in Russia is being reflected in a sharp increase from 1 July 2025 in tariffs for housing and municipal services – by up to 40% in some regions. This comes on top of steadily higher tariffs in 2023 and 2024, with an accelerating yearly level of price rises. ⬇️ Image
2/ ASTRA reports that tariffs in the regions will increase by between 8.6% in Amur to 21.1% in Perm. Moscow's tariffs will rise by 15%, the surrounding Moscow Region by 13.3% and St. Petersburg by 14.6%.
3/ Some local authorities can impose their own increases independently of the framework established by the central government. Thus Omsk is increasing its tariffs by 39.6%, and Izhevsk by 38%.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 1
1/ Russians who have lost arms, legs or eyes are being sent into assaults in Ukraine, with little chance of survival. Despite severe injuries, they are either being denied a fitness assessment or are arbitrarily being rated fit. The men call themselves "meat on crutches". ⬇️ Image
2/ A Russian soldier has spoken of his experiences with a so-called 'cripple battalion' – a unit comprised of injured soldiers, which rather than recuperating or being allowed to heal or get treatment, is sent to the front line to take part in fresh assaults.
3/ 37-year-old Anton Savchenko from Tyumen – an ethnic Ukrainian with many relatives in Ukraine – volunteered to go to war in October 2024, saying that he "had to help". However, he soon regretted it, according to his relatives. Within less than a month, he had lost his left eye. Image
Read 21 tweets
Jun 30
1/ Tens of gigabytes of secret data on Russia's strategic electronic warfare systems has been hacked by the pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK). They say that Russia's EW shield is "not just fragile - it's full of holes" due to multiple flaws and vulnerabilities. ⬇️ Image
2/ Two weeks ago, the RDK announced that it had obtained a large quantity of data on Russia's EW systems, including technical specifications, diagrams, official correspondence, equipment setup methods, drawings, test reports, and functional information.
3/ RDK commander 'Fortuna' says that "We got more than just the external appearance. We see the internal logic, architecture, connections between nodes, we know who designed it, which companies supplied the units, which research institutes are responsible for the developments."
Read 24 tweets
Jun 29
1/ Russian soldiers have now been serving for a longer time than any involuntarily mobilised Russian or Soviet troops since 1888, during the Tsarist period nearly 140 years ago. Not surprisingly, this has led many to complain of 'slavery'. ⬇️ Image
2/ The author of the 'Shelter No. 8' Telegram channel is a Russian soldier who joined the army in 2021. As he points out, the 3 years and 9 months he has served so far is approaching a new record for involuntary service since the end of the Tsarist period.
3/ "In Tsarist Russia, with the introduction of conscription, they served in the infantry:

- In 1881-1888 - 5 years.
- In 1888-1906 - 4 years
- I am here with my 3 years and 9 months.
- From 1906 to 1918, they served in the infantry for 3 years.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 29
1/ Russia is reportedly sustaining exceptionally high casualties in its offensive against the Sumy region of Ukraine. A warblogger says that the battlefield is strewn with Russian bodies. Those who survive are reportedly treated as deserters and told they should have died. ⬇️
2/ 'Belarusian Silovik' writes: "Today I watched several videos filmed by our group, which was semi-encircled in the area of ​​Oleksiivka-Andiivka in the Sumy direction. What meat there is. All the forest plantations are [covered] in bodies." Image
3/ A soldier with the 40th Separate Guards Marine Brigade (military unit 10103) says that commanders are sending men into suicidal assaults, resulting in casualties as high as 92%, treat those who survive as deserters, and tell them they should have died.
Read 10 tweets

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