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Mar 2 21 tweets 8 min read
1/ Russia appears to have recently removed a span of the Kerch railway bridge to Crimea, presumably to carry out repairs following the (likely Ukrainian) bomb attack on the bridge last October. Here's why this is significant.
2/ Seven fuel tankers ruptured on a 4,000 ton train that was, apparently coincidentally, crossing the rail bridge when the explosion on the parallel road bridge happened. It caused a huge fire that lasted several hours.
3/ (For more on the background to the explosion, see the thread I compiled below on the Russian, Bulgarian, Georgian and Armenian account of what led up to it. It's the most detailed and most fully documented account that I know of.)
4/ The fire could have been a lot worse – the rail bridge was likely saved by the quick thinking of the train crew (see the thread below), who unhitched the burning tankers and got the rest of the train away to safety.
5/ Nonetheless, it still caused significant damage to the rail bridge. Further damage was likely caused by helicopters water-bombing the train to put out the fire. Video from the scene afterwards showed a lot of surface buckling.
6/ Before the attack, the rail bridge was a crucial element of Russia's war effort in southern Ukraine. It was used to bring huge quantities of troops, military equipment, fuel and ammunition to Crimea.
7/ Not surprisingly, Russia made it a priority to repair the damaged track and restore traffic over the rail bridge. However, while this was a propaganda boost, it obscured some major issues.
8/ Following the explosion, the Russians converted the rail bridge temporarily to single-track use. Videos such as the one below, from only a few days ago, show trains using the other track on the far side from the road bridge.
9/ What kind of damage might have been caused to the rail bridge's structure? Unlike the road bridge, which has a single deck, the rail bridge has two in parallel, with tracks sitting on top of twin decks made of steel girders supported by double piers.
10/ Crucially, the track rests on top of an EPS (expanded polystyrene) layer, covered by a geoblanket, which can be seen being installed in the pictures below. This will have saved a lot of weight but is likely to be very vulnerable to heat.
11/ The video in tweet 5 above shows two distinct types of damage: the steel walkway and the rail tracks are severely deformed. Damage to the underlying deck, the girder main structure and pier bearings is not visible.
12/ There's no doubt that the span was exposed to very high temperatures. The deformation of the tracks indicates temperatures of 1200-1400°C. As can be seen from this frame of the video, the track directly underneath the burned wagons was melted.
13/ The heat will almost certainly have damaged the underlying geoblanket and EPS layer. It's also likely that the rubber bearings between the girders and the pier cap were affected. They protect the piers from vibration and absorb the girder's movement under heavy loads.
14/ To compensate for the loss of one side of the rail bridge, the Russians reopened the old ferry crossing between Crimea and Russia, at the narrowest point of the Kerch Strait, north of the bridge.
15/ This has had to accommodate a huge amount of traffic – between 9 October and 24 November 2022, 2,622 rail cars, 24,227 vehicles and 37,114 passengers were transported by ferry. There have been lengthy tailbacks due to limited ferry capacity.
16/ The damaged road spans were replaced over the last five months, leading to a full reopening of the road bridge on 23 February 2023. This should enable the ferry traffic to be diverted onto the road bridge.
17/ With transport capacity now fully restored on the road bridge, the Russians have likely decided that the time is right to fully repair the rail bridge. It's probable that they've removed the damaged span to replace the damaged EPS layer and fully inspect the structure.
18/ Taking the span out should also enable them to inspect and if necessary replace the bearings on the piers, which would likely have been impossible to do with the span still in place.

This work is likely to take a while, particularly if the girders need repairs.
20/ It's been reported that Russia is aiming to complete the repair job by July 2023, although the Russians are clearly working hard to expedite repairs before then. /end

(With many thanks to @andre_bida for the engineering explanations and diagrams!)

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Mar 4
1/ Matters appear to have gone from bad to worse for the mobilised Russians of the 1439th regiment. Their wives say the men are now encircled by the Ukrainians, under constant fire and lack food or water. Transcript below. ⬇️
2/ "Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin]! We appeal to you from Svirsk, Irkutsk oblast. You are our last hope. Help, save our men! They have been called up for mobilisation several days ago as part of military unit 95380, regiment 1439, motorised riflemen.
3/ They were sent to the village Opytne, Avdiivka direction. They did not get in touch for several days. Just last night by some miracle they were able to reach us. Now they are under fire from the Armed Forces of Ukraine in an encirclement.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 3
1/ The mobilised Russians from Irkutsk who filmed a video appeal to Vladimir Putin a few days ago to save them from "slaughter" have reportedly been sent into a fresh assault against fortified Ukrainian positions at Avdiivka. Many are likely now dead. ⬇️
2/ The men are from the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th companies of the 2nd Battalion of what was the Russian Army's 1439th Regiment, which was disbanded and incorporated into the 2nd Motorised Rifle Battalion of the First Slavic Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' (DNR).
3/ The 'People of Baikal' Telegram channel has reported on the outcome of the men's appeal – one of three sent by them, with their wives also making an appeal on their behalf. In the first video, recorded on 24 January, they say:
Read 23 tweets
Mar 2
1/ Following Yevgeny Prigozhin's announcement on 9 February 2023 that he was discontinuing recruitment activity in Russian prisons, he's now said that he's seeking new Wagner Group fighters in Russia's sports and martial arts clubs. ⬇️ Image
2/ In a statement published on his company's official Telegram channel, he writes: "In order to recruit new fighters for the Private Military Company Wagner who will defend our Motherland, we have already opened recruitment centres for the PMC Wagner in a number of cities.
3/ These centres are located in sports clubs, where you will come, you will be tested to see how strong you are physically and then told how you will get to us. We fully trust these centres and they are our supporters.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 2
1/ The Wagner Group's head Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to be backpedalling from a law that he had demanded himself to criminalise criticism of Wagner's fighters and increase penalties for anti-war comments. It could be used to prosecute his own criticism of the Russian MOD. ⬇️ Image
2/ In January 2023, Prigozhin wrote to the Russian State Duma's Speaker, Vyacheslav Volodin, requesting that laws against "discrediting" Russia's armed forces should be extended to cover Wagner, and that penalties should be made harsher.
3/ On 1 March, Volodin duly announced amendments to the law to allow prosecutions for "fakes" and "discrediting" "volunteer formations, organizations or persons assisting in the performance of tasks assigned to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation" – like Wagner.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 1
1/ Mobilised Russians from Irkutsk are being sent "to slaughter" in Ukraine and have been told that they are "expendable". Their commanders have fired at them to 'motivate' them and their unit has taken so many casualties that it has had to be reconstituted six times. ⬇️
2/ In a video, the men say:

"Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin], we turn to you [for help]. We are mobilised from the Irkutsk region, regiment 1439, we were sent to the Donetsk People's Republic from the city of Novosibirsk on 31 December 22.
3/ We ask for your assistance and to deal with the lawless and criminal orders of our command.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 27
1/ A faction within the Russian state seems to have gone down the traditional route of leaking a compromising video on an opponent, in this case showing Lieutenant General Alexander Matovnikov apparently performing a strip-tease for one of his girlfriends.
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, to which the Wagner Group and the Russian military both seem to be leaking information, has published a video showing a dancing Matovnikov doing a 'sexy dance' which is possibly the least sexy thing ever.
3/ VChK-OGPU writes: "The video ... shows the deputy commander-in-chief of the Ground Forces, former presidential envoy Alexander Matovnikov, who is the senior officer of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Belarus.
Read 6 tweets

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