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Mar 4 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
#Critical_Technology: The concentration of R&D, academic and technological potential is something to watch closely: 1) China is a leader in many areas; 2) The US and India are closest to China in this race; 3) the EU is falling behind; 4) Russia is not close.⤵️
Analysis by @ASPI_org shows the following trends: 1) The risk of monopoly in defense, robotics and transportation is medium to low, with main competition between China and the US. Drones and small satellites are the areas where that Italy and Germany are in the top 5;⤵️
2) China and the US are dominant in artificial intelligence and computing. India follows in third place, with South Korea and the United Kingdom completing the top 5 in almost all cases;⤵️
3) The situation is more fragmented in advanced materials and manufacturing, with India successfully competing for second place with the US, while China leads the way. South Korea, Germany and the UK are also present in the top 5.⤵️
4) Quantum technology is the only sector where Germany (the EU) has a chance to be in strong positions in the top five, competing with the United Kingdom for third place. China and the United States lead the pack. This makes monopoly unlikely in this sector.⤵️
All in all, China is the leading country in 37 of 44 sectors and the US in 7, respectively. However, monopoly risk persists in only 7 sectors, with China leading the pack. Some of these sectors refer to manufacturing and energy. In general, if the trends do not change,⤵️
the Global South has the potential to become future providers of advanced technology for the Global North. Also, there are different poles of attraction, not just two. The balance of power between democracies and autocracies will be determined by India's trajectory.⤵️
More read in the report of @ASPI_org 👇

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 5
#Critical_Goods: The US is intensifying its economic diplomacy toward mineral-rich African countries. But there two main spoilers: 1) China's presence on the continent for at least 15 years; and 2) the cautious approach of African countries who do not want to be bossed around &⤵️ Image
who understand that the West is running out of time and critical minerals for the green transition. Both the Chinese factor and the mineral hunger in the West put Africa in a convenient position to reach beneficial agreements. China controls 40-75% of the nickel, copper,⤵️
cobalt and lithium supply chain. The US is trying to use the Minerals Security Partnership, with the G7 and 6 other nations, to encourage the creation of new supply chains from Africa to the US. It will take⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 4
#Russia_Sanctions: Dutch prosecutors have launched 45 investigations into cases of sanctions evasion in favor of Russia. 29 cases refer to the control of exports and imports and the rest are in the field of financial sanctions. In the case of Belarus alone,⤵️
the Dutch side has carried out almost 350 checks on goods destined for Belarus with the aim of preventing re-export to Russia. The circumvention of sanctions through third countries, perceived by Russia as friendly, represents one of the weak points of Western sanctions.⤵️ Image
The dynamics of third-country trade with the Netherlands and Russia is revealing. Under Dutch law, entities involved in violating the sanctions are punishable by 6 years in prison or €90,000 in fines.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 4
#Global_South: Before leaving for Africa, Macron encouraged French companies to invest in Africa and show "humility". While speaking to the Congolese, Macron made moralizing remarks accusing them of being incapable of running their country. If he continues in the same key,⤵️
the French leader will create more critics of France/the West than friends. The Democratic Republic of Congo condemns French support for Rwanda and calls for sanctions. Macron's lack of sensitivity (tact) explains again why Russian narratives⤵️
are spreading and taking deep root in West Africa. If Western diplomacy doesn't learn humility (and doesn't teach lessons) it doesn't stand a chance in the Global South.
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 4
#EU_Ukraine: The EU Commission and most of the Member States are reluctant to make promises to Ukraine on the opening date of the accession negotiations. Unlike them, the head of the EU Parliament, Metsola, has nurtured the hope that negotiations will start at the end of 2023.⤵️
Properly managing expectations is something the EU needs to be careful about so as not to create disappointment in Ukraine. There is commendable progress in a country defending itself against Russian aggression. However, recent assessments show that there are problem areas that⤵️
Ukraine should finalize and adjust certain reforms (Constitutional Court, minority legislation, etc.). The exact timetable for the negotiations will become clear from the EU Commission report in October.
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 4
#Moldova: The populist parliamentary opposition party with ties to Russia is planning new protests on March 12. Shor Party leaders warn that the protests will get bigger in size to the fact that 600,000 people will reportedly signed a petition demanding the govt pay the entire⤵️
energy bill of the population. In fact, the signatures on this petition could have been forged and cannot be taken as a valid argument. However, this is an impactful figure for the public commutation of the Shor Party. For energy subsidies to the population,⤵️
the govt has allocated 250 million euros (or 5 billion Moldovan lei), covering the entire population, even those who did not submit a request. With this money, the govt could cover up to 50% of the bills. So the Shor Party is basically asking the govt to pay⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 3
#Moldova_Russia: The new audit by state authorities of Moldova of the Russia-controlled gas operator MoldovaGaz for 2011-2021 revealed a number of issues related to previously unknown debts and overvalued assets. Main takeaways: ⤵️
1) Debts: The revaluation of the company's assets in 2008 worth $325 million was accounted for as MoldovaGaz's share capital instead of being considered debts of the company to the Moldovan state. Now the government will seek to obtain this money; ⤵️
2) Assets: MoldovaGaz owns large parts of the distribution capacity, however it has legal rights to only 35% of the distribution networks. The rest was built with public money and is used by MoldovaGaz for free. According to the audit, the costs for using these distribution ⤵️
Read 7 tweets

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