Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 6, 2023 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
"It's disturbing how ill-informed & naive the average American is on China."

@USNavy Admiral publicly states #China is the "number one challenge" of the 21st century and represents the most dangerous trend in #geopolitics.

Eye-opening speech.

I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Rear Admiral and Commander of Office of Naval Intelligence, Mike Studeman, delivered a chilling address on the threat posed by China.

"It's mind blowing how big the problem is. It's very unsettling to see how much the US is not connecting the dots on the challenge."
"The problem is so massive most people don't know how to have a framework for it. We need to have more conversations with the country to understand the problem."

The Adm. says it's a tougher problem than the US faced against the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

Let that sink in.
In contrast, China views the US differently.

"We are clearly the number one enemy. We are characterized as such. Most Chinese fully believe that in their minds."

Why?

"They think America is dangerous. They don't think democracies are efficient. They think they're ineffective."
"The China challenge could be the most nonpartisan issue that could unite the country in significant ways."

The Adm. makes a plea:

"Can we please lower the amount of internal bickering within the US and focus on the international challenges that actually affect every American?"
This is the single most important video of the year.

"We're going to find that we could very well lose the peace. We worry about winning the war, prevailing, but we can also lose the peace in the meantime."

The entire speech is worth watching and full of fascinating insights.
Full video here:

And great article by @JustinSKatz: breakingdefense.com/2023/02/naval-…
.@Jkylebass did you see this speech by US Navy Admiral Mike Studeman? He touches on a lot of the problems with China that you talk about:
The Admiral also shared 5 valuable insights specifically related to Taiwan, which I summarized here:
If you made it all the way down here, thank you for reading.

I spent a lot of time putting this together, and hope you found it useful.

I write a brief newsletter where I try to make sense of what matters most in the world. And the impact it may have on our future.

One topic,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image

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More from @ianellisjones

Dec 30, 2025
Over the past 48 hours, China surrounded Taiwan and executed large-scale live-fire military exercises featuring simulated decapitation strikes and the seizure of key ports.

“It is a noose-style blockade. The operational scope is no longer limited to symbolic, isolated shows of force, but has evolved into a coordinated and interconnected blockade network, practicing the tactics to choke off the island’s vital supply lines,” the official PLA press account stated bluntly.

With a potential Day 3 on the horizon, here’s everything you might have missed:Image
For easier viewing, press and hold to load in 4K. Special thanks to @SinoTalk and @songs349.

>>On the morning of 29 December, PLA Eastern Theater Command launched joint military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” and deployed air and naval forces “to approach Taiwan Island in close proximity from different directions”

The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force participated. The stated objectives at the outset included:

- Blockade on key ports and areas
- Seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Joint sea-air combat readiness patrols
- All-dimensional deterrence outside the first island chain (new language)
The PRC designated seven exercise zones in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast, and east of Taiwan. From 09:00 to 11:00, the PLA established an 8th training area to the east of Taiwan (per @MoNDefense).
Read 9 tweets
Dec 8, 2025
Confirmed today: The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, currently sailing west in the Pacific on a surge deployment, chopped into U.S. 7th Fleet.

Amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7) entered the South China Sea and recently stopped in Da Nang.

New INDOPACOM snapshot: Image
ABECSG arrives in the region amid heavy Chinese PLA Navy activity:
Lincoln + Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 21 moved from 3rd to 7th Fleet sometime between 4 and 8 December, per DVIDS. Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 6, 2025
As of yesterday, Reuters reports that 90+ Chinese ships are operating in the region - down from 100+ earlier this week - surpassing China's "mass naval deployment in December last year" in the "largest maritime show of force to date."

A high-level visual (notes + sources below): Image
“The Chinese ships have massed in waters stretching from the southern part of the Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and down into the contested South China Sea, as well as into the Pacific, according to four security officials in the region.

Their accounts were corroborated by intelligence reports from a country in the region, which detailed the deployment. Reuters reviewed the reports on condition it did not name the country.

As of Thursday morning, there are more than 90 Chinese ships operating in the region, coming down from more than 100 at one point earlier this week, the documents showed.

The operations exceed China's mass naval deployment in December last year that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level, the sources said.”
The Hainan amphibious task group was last spotted ~500nm north of Palau. Australia is closely tracking the ATG but it’s unclear how far south the group will transit. @SinoTalk unpacks why the PLA might conduct a second circumnavigation op and what it would look like:
Read 7 tweets
Nov 15, 2025
Mapping potential military targets in Venezuela

Yesterday, the U.S. announced Operation Southern Spear to "remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere." With the Ford carrier strike group now on station in SOUTHCOM, the U.S. could launch land strikes at any time.

w/ @SA_Defensa Image
"Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine returned to the White House on Friday for a second consecutive day of deliberations centered on potential military action in Venezuela, as U.S. forces in the region prepared for possible attack orders.

It remains unclear if President Donald Trump has decided to pursue such an escalation, though high-level discussions over whether to strike Venezuela — and how — have been underway for days...

An administration official said 'a host of options' have been presented to the president." (WaPo)
Special thanks to @SA_Defensa, he’s one of the best in the business.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 10, 2025
Many moving pieces in SOUTHCOM as the Ford Carrier Strike Group steams toward the Caribbean & POTUS considers striking land targets in Venezuela.

Visualizing U.S. force posture, w/ illustrative Tomahawk Land Attack Missile & Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile strike packages: Image
On 24 October, the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (GRFCSG) and embarked carrier air wing were directed to the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility. Open source flight tracking data indicates its journey across the Atlantic is likely underway. @MT_Anderson
@MT_Anderson MV Ocean Trader is back in the southern Caribbean. For specific ship locations scroll @MT_Anderson’s timeline
Read 5 tweets
Sep 1, 2025
SOUTHCOM Snapshot: Potential strike package with a TLAM (Tomahawk Land Attack Missile) loadout via @vcdgf555

POTUS has options. Image
The U.S. has deployed a considerable naval and expeditionary force to the Caribbean (U.S. Southern Command/4th Fleet AOR), providing POTUS with a wide range of military options to use against Venezuela or other non-state actors in the region. Catch up on everything that’s happened:
"The IWO ARG – 22nd MEU(SOC) is America’s 9-1-1 force—lethal, capable, and adaptable—ready to respond to contingency missions around the globe. This force operates 24/7, reassuring our Allies and partners; deterring our adversaries; keeping the world’s oceans free and open in accordance with international standards; and projecting power on a global scale through sustained operations at sea."
Read 4 tweets

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