Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 6, 2023 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
"It's disturbing how ill-informed & naive the average American is on China."

@USNavy Admiral publicly states #China is the "number one challenge" of the 21st century and represents the most dangerous trend in #geopolitics.

Eye-opening speech.

I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Rear Admiral and Commander of Office of Naval Intelligence, Mike Studeman, delivered a chilling address on the threat posed by China.

"It's mind blowing how big the problem is. It's very unsettling to see how much the US is not connecting the dots on the challenge."
"The problem is so massive most people don't know how to have a framework for it. We need to have more conversations with the country to understand the problem."

The Adm. says it's a tougher problem than the US faced against the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

Let that sink in.
In contrast, China views the US differently.

"We are clearly the number one enemy. We are characterized as such. Most Chinese fully believe that in their minds."

Why?

"They think America is dangerous. They don't think democracies are efficient. They think they're ineffective."
"The China challenge could be the most nonpartisan issue that could unite the country in significant ways."

The Adm. makes a plea:

"Can we please lower the amount of internal bickering within the US and focus on the international challenges that actually affect every American?"
This is the single most important video of the year.

"We're going to find that we could very well lose the peace. We worry about winning the war, prevailing, but we can also lose the peace in the meantime."

The entire speech is worth watching and full of fascinating insights.
Full video here:

And great article by @JustinSKatz: breakingdefense.com/2023/02/naval-…
.@Jkylebass did you see this speech by US Navy Admiral Mike Studeman? He touches on a lot of the problems with China that you talk about:
The Admiral also shared 5 valuable insights specifically related to Taiwan, which I summarized here:
If you made it all the way down here, thank you for reading.

I spent a lot of time putting this together, and hope you found it useful.

I write a brief newsletter where I try to make sense of what matters most in the world. And the impact it may have on our future.

One topic,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image

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More from @ianellisjones

Jun 25
🚨For 5 days in a row, 4 Chinese Coast Guard ships have repeatedly entered the 12-mile territorial limit around Japan’s Senkaku islands

CCG “drove away & expelled” Japanese patrol boats & have been spotted sailing within Japan’s EEZ for 186 days straight, the longest record ever Image
While it doesn’t get as much mainstream media attention, China employs many of the same gray zone tactics around the Senkakus that they do in the Taiwan Strait & South China Sea. Worth repeating what I said below — Beijing is all over Taiwan, the Philippines, & Japan.
Three Dongdiao-class surveillance ships have also been operating around Japan over the last week (791, 795, 799), as well as a Luyang III Mod guided-missile destroyer (156).


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Read 9 tweets
Jun 19
🚨 Ayungin Attack — Shocking new details & video shows China’s “brutal assault” on the Philippines

- Chinese Coast Guard deployed tear gas
- “In a brazen act of aggression, Filipino troops valiantly fought back & defended their position”
- CCG employed physical attacks, bladed weapons, blaring sirens, & blinding strobe lights
- Threatened Philippine soldiers with axes, knives, & bolos, & began hurling rocks & other objects
- “In an act of piracy, CCG personnel proceeded to loot supplies & pilfer equipment”
- Violently attached ropes to tow Philippine boats & slashed RHIBs, rendering them inoperable

Quick thread with the latest:
Source + thread with more detail on the attack:
Everything that happened + what you need to know:
Read 9 tweets
Jun 18
New: Pentagon on China’s “very concerning” attack @ Ayungin Shoal in Philippine territory

“This kind of behavior is provocative. It’s reckless. It’s unnecessary. & it could lead to something bigger & more violent”

A significant escalation — everything you need to know 👇

• Chinese Coast Guard & Maritime Militia employed the “dangerous & deliberate use of water cannons, ramming, & blocking”
• 8 Filipinos injured, including one who lost a thumb, near Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal
• Collided, boarded, searched, & seized multiple Philippine boats, & confiscated firearms
• Disrupted the mission & prevented resupply
• Established & enforcing a de facto blockade
• Beijing wasted no time weaponizing a recently enacted law that allows the CCG to detain “trespassers” by force & without trial, anywhere within its vast claims across the SCS
• 3rd incident since March where Philippine personnel have been injured by Chinese forces
• Will Beijing try to normalize this hostile behavior?

🎯 “China will always claim to be the victim of their own aggression. They will blame this on the Filipinos.” @Jkylebass

Thread with sources & more info
Via @GordianKnotRay (follow for the latest) — 1951 🇺🇸🇵🇭 Mutual Defense Treaty, Article III:

“The Parties, through their Foreign Ministers or their deputies, will consult together from time to time regarding the implementation of this Treaty and whenever in the opinion of either of them the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack in the Pacific.”
Read 15 tweets
Jun 16
Hellscape — new video of ultra long range drone deployed in the Indo-Pacific 👀

Vanilla has world record max endurance of 10 days & serves as a C2 “mothership” with air-launched swarm capabilities to deploy 40 micro-drones. They’re low-cost, payload agnostic, force multipliers.
Ultra long range unmanned aerial vehicle launches in support of Valiant Shield 24: DVIDS

Vanilla, an ultra long endurance unmanned aerial vehicle, is deployed in support of Valiant Shield 2024 on Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, June 13, 2024. Exercises such as Valiant Shield allow the Indo-Pacific Command Joint Forces the opportunity to integrate forces from all branches of service and with our allies to conduct precise, lethal, and overwhelming multi-axis, multi-domain effects that demonstrate the strength and versatility of the Joint Force and our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.Image
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Read 8 tweets
Jun 12
The U.S. Navy operates ~100 ships around the world every day, NATO is drilling with 50+ warships, & massive exercises are underway & planned in Asia.

Russia sent a frigate, sub, oiler, & tug to the Caribbean, & doesn’t have a single carrier operational. “We are not concerned. Russia’s deployments are part of routine naval activity... which pose no direct threat to the U.S.”

The transit imposes a “significant cost on the Russian Navy, which faces challenges in maintaining readiness & conducting deployments with an aging fleet.”

A few notes & context:Image
The U.S. anticipates “heightened naval & air activity near the U.S.” this summer. “These actions will culminate in a global Russian naval exercise this fall. Russia will temporarily send combat naval vessels to the Caribbean region, & these ships will likely conduct port calls in Cuba & possibly Venezuela.”
Note: Russian naval visits to Cuba are not unusual, having taken place every year between 2013 & 2020.

“Given Russia's long history of Cuban port calls, these are considered routine naval visits, especially in the context of increased U.S. support to Ukraine & NATO exercises.”
Read 8 tweets
Jun 11
🔥 U.S. military plans “Hellscape” to deter China from attacking Taiwan: @joshrogin

“The idea is that as soon as China’s invasion fleet begins moving across the 100-mile waterway, the U.S. military would deploy thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface ships & aerial drones to flood the area & give Taiwanese, U.S. & partner forces time to mount a full response.”

Full article is worth the read — thread with a few quotes:Image
“They want to offer the world a short, sharp war so that it is a fait accompli before the world can get their act together. My job is to ensure that between now & 2027 & beyond, the U.S. military & the allies are capable of prevailing.”

Link to entire column:
SINGAPORE — President Xi Jinping has called on China’s People’s Liberation Army to be ready to take Taiwan by force by 2027. The United States, together with regional partners, must ensure a Chinese invasion can’t succeed. That plan hinges on quickly building & deploying thousands of new drones that would swarm the Taiwan Strait & keep China’s military busy until more help can arrive, according to the top U.S. military official in the Pacific. But time is running out to turn these plans into a reality. @joshroginImage
Read 9 tweets

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