Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 6, 2023 10 tweets 5 min read Read on X
"It's disturbing how ill-informed & naive the average American is on China."

@USNavy Admiral publicly states #China is the "number one challenge" of the 21st century and represents the most dangerous trend in #geopolitics.

Eye-opening speech.

I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Rear Admiral and Commander of Office of Naval Intelligence, Mike Studeman, delivered a chilling address on the threat posed by China.

"It's mind blowing how big the problem is. It's very unsettling to see how much the US is not connecting the dots on the challenge."
"The problem is so massive most people don't know how to have a framework for it. We need to have more conversations with the country to understand the problem."

The Adm. says it's a tougher problem than the US faced against the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

Let that sink in.
In contrast, China views the US differently.

"We are clearly the number one enemy. We are characterized as such. Most Chinese fully believe that in their minds."

Why?

"They think America is dangerous. They don't think democracies are efficient. They think they're ineffective."
"The China challenge could be the most nonpartisan issue that could unite the country in significant ways."

The Adm. makes a plea:

"Can we please lower the amount of internal bickering within the US and focus on the international challenges that actually affect every American?"
This is the single most important video of the year.

"We're going to find that we could very well lose the peace. We worry about winning the war, prevailing, but we can also lose the peace in the meantime."

The entire speech is worth watching and full of fascinating insights.
Full video here:

And great article by @JustinSKatz: breakingdefense.com/2023/02/naval-…
.@Jkylebass did you see this speech by US Navy Admiral Mike Studeman? He touches on a lot of the problems with China that you talk about:
The Admiral also shared 5 valuable insights specifically related to Taiwan, which I summarized here:
If you made it all the way down here, thank you for reading.

I spent a lot of time putting this together, and hope you found it useful.

I write a brief newsletter where I try to make sense of what matters most in the world. And the impact it may have on our future.

One topic,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image

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More from @ianellisjones

Dec 12
🚨 China quietly carried out a sweeping military operation this week in the Western Pacific — its largest naval deployment in decades.

Taiwan defense officials called the unannounced exercise staggering, unprecedented, and extremely rare.

Here’s everything you need to know 🧵 Image
Earlier this week, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a massive joint military exercise around the Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific, targeting the entire first island chain.

Taiwan’s military spokesperson said the scale of the naval deployment was the largest since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. In a notable first, Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands participated together in coordination.
The PLA designated 7 reserved airspace zones east of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, spanning more than 800 miles along the first island chain (which extends south from Japan and through Taiwan to the Philippines).
Read 11 tweets
Dec 9
Admiral Paparo: “I remain confident that we’d prevail in a conflict with the PRC over Taiwan...

And, in fact, the PRC also doubts their own ability to prevail in such a conflict...

That doesn’t negate that if they decided there would have to be a war of necessity, they’re going at tremendous risk to themselves...

Our concern is that the margin — expressed in risk of succeeding, lost lives, lost capability, lost money, and lost time — is eroding.”
Adm. Paparo, Commander of @INDOPACOM, speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, says the U.S. needs to double down on:
Response when asked about stationing U.S. troops on Taiwan:

“U.S. troops on Taiwan has the tremendous risk of tripping China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law...

However, defensive services is an element of the Taiwan Relations Act...

So, I don’t discuss U.S. presence on Taiwan...”
Read 5 tweets
Dec 2
A lot going on in the Indo-Pacific — a few things you may have missed last week 🧵

- Chinese balloons are back around Taiwan
- China + Russia conduct 9th joint strategic aerial patrol
- Largest swarm of Chinese ships ever near Philippines’ Thitu island
- Taiwan intercepts China Coast Guard ships in Kinmen’s restricted waters
- Three PRC research vessels enter the Philippines’ EEZ
- CCG carries out intrusive patrols in Malaysia’s EEZ
- Taiwan’s President lands in Hawaii, irking Beijing
- U.S. approves $320 million arms sale to Taiwan

China could launch military drills, or exercise “Joint Sword C,” in response. More info + sources below.Image
Chinese balloons are back—

After a 7+ month hiatus, Taiwan detected at least 6 Chinese balloons entering its air defense ID zone (ADIZ) over the last week.

From December 2023 to April 2024, China sent an unprecedented 102 balloons over and around the island. Image
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China debuts H-6N bomber & conducts strategic aerial patrol with Russia in the Sea of Japan, East China Sea, and WESTPAC—

For the first time, China employed the H-6N strategic bomber in the patrol. The H-6N is “emblematic of the strategic transformation of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force” and capable of long-range operations, aerial refueling, and carrying nuclear weapons.

It is the 9th patrol organized by the two militaries since 2019 and the 2nd this year.Image
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Read 9 tweets
Nov 12
New details from DOD — U.S. Navy repels multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks:

- Destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG 106) & USS Spruance (DDG 111), part of the Lincoln CSG, were attacked while transiting the BAM on 11 Nov
- Included at least 8x one-way attack drones, 5x anti-ship ballistic missiles, & 3x anti-ship cruise missiles
- Despite reports, aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) (recently in the Gulf of Aden) was not targeted
- Successfully engaged & defeated with no injuries or damage

“CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense & will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.” —Pentagon Press Sec
“On November 11th, U.S. Central Command forces successfully repelled multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks during a transit of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. During the transit, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Stockdale and USS Spruance were attacked by at least eight one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems, five anti-ship ballistic missiles, and three anti-ship cruise missiles, which were successfully engaged and defeated.

The vessels were not damaged. No personnel were hurt. Again, CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense, and as I highlighted earlier, will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.”
“This is the second time the two independently-deployed destroyers have come under Houthi fire. The Houthis also launched an attack in late September against the two destroyers, as well as USS Indianapolis (LCS-17), USNI News previously reported.”
Read 6 tweets
Nov 11
Updated chart visualizing Chinese PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air defense ID zone (ADIZ) this year.

The record-breaking surge began in May following President Lai’s inauguration. By August, ADIZ incursions had already surpassed 2023 totals — with the tally now 1,000+ higher. Image
“This is not a slide that comes out of @PACAF, but I do like it and I use it for this purpose.

You know we see this bullying taking place in the air domain: two lines on the chart. The one that’s in orange shows the air defense identification zone or ADIZ — incursions that the PLA has conducted against Taiwan in 2023. And while that slope is fairly constant, it just shows a persistent presence and pressure being put on the Taiwans. The blue line, or the green, depending on how this shows up for you, is 2024. And you notice in May, when President Lai was inaugurated, the slope on that line took about a 3x rise.

And again, just indications of how the bullying and threatening behaviors continue to be exhibited.” —Gen. Kevin Schneider
Read 6 tweets
Oct 24
The U.S. Marine Corps’ XQ-58A Valkyrie, a highly autonomous, long-range, low-cost tactical unmanned platform, completed its 4th test flight & “effectively demonstrated its capabilities as a forward deployed sensing platform — providing critical threat targeting data to USMC 5th-generation aircraft to rapidly close advanced kill chains.”Image
Multi-domain test event “Emerald Flag” provides opportunity for XQ-58A to demonstrate tactical data link integration (Source: USMC) Image
“A test Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie unmanned combat aerial vehicle deployed last week in a first-ever joint force data link integration test during Emerald Flag 2024 last week.

The Marine Corps’ “Loyal Wingman” drone provides targeting data to F-35Bs and other aircraft.” @Aaron_MatthewIL
Read 5 tweets

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