TTF set to slide further

Morgan Stanley cuts its EU gas price forecast to €35/MWh for Q2 and warns of gas storage reaching tank-tops by August amid strong LNG inflows
This is the second price forecast cut in as many months

Europe is (temporarily) awash with gas, even during a late cold snap and without Russian pipeline flows
Why? LNG cargoes are chasing profits, and there are slim pickings in Asia.

The delivered price of #USLNG to Europe is still marginally higher than Japan, despite TTF weakness. Chinese gas demand yet to reawaken
This dynamic will persist until EU gas demand picks up or, more likely, LNG cargoes are diverted to Asia

For now that’s not happening, so gas will get even cheaper this summer until the LNG flood abates

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More from @EnergyFluxNews

Mar 8
This whole ‘Europe must fear Chinese LNG demand’ mantra deserves to be challenged. A quick 🧵
1. China is producing & piping in more gas than ever, which is cheaper than LNG. It doesn’t use gas for baseload power & has small storage capacity, so any excess LNG is typically diverted to EU
2. China went on a huuuuge LNG spending spree last year & committed to oodles of extra (mostly US) volumes

First few of those contracts start to kick in this year, more over next 2-3 years
Read 8 tweets
Apr 28, 2021
Today's edition of #EnergyFlux is out now!

This issue is *free* - click through to get a feel for premium membership

Find out more at energyflux.news

energyflux.news/p/leap-of-fait…
Here's a direct link to today's lead story:

Leap of faith: Exxon bets the house on explosive growth in CCS and hydrogen
energyflux.news/p/leap-of-fait…
Also in today's issue:

EU taxonomy wrangling exposes uneven starting points in Europe's #netzero journey

#naturalgas #nuclear #sustainablefinance

energyflux.news/p/eu-taxonomy-…
Read 4 tweets

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