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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
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Mar 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1. Is this truly understood yet?

(1) Change by policy vs. change by disaster;
(2) Change now vs. change later.

I’ve also outlined dynamics: #aba is ZeroCovid (elimination/eradication) policy, ‘giving up,’ and reestablishing control.

China could be tracking this, we don’t know.
2. COVID elimination can take years to centuries.

Humans ended smallpox; SARS is comparable. Effective policy can start any day (IHR 2005) once people care.

The central weaknesses are national level and lack of systems thinking/accountability in leaders.
3. Read this as background on Dr. Van Kerkhove’s thread. States may force WHO to end the COVID-19 PHEIC, allowing SARS-CoV-2 to transmit largely unobserved and unmitigated. Damage won’t surface until 10-15 years after infection. Scholars and leaders who care need to organize now.
4. Why will you hear this only on Twitter?

Study national politics in any/every country.

Lack of knowledge and expertise, lack of competent leaders and systems scientists (🙋‍♂️) as most are too narrow & unable to see the emergent trends.

And blaming WHO is easier for all actors.

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 13
1. Why is climate part of public health?

If not intuitive, take quality time on this thesis:

The laws of climate physics compel us to focus on the long term, beyond our own, local lives.

Just as religion in the past, it IS the greater purpose that many lack in our secular age.
2. Climate is weather averaged over decades.

Perhaps counterintuitively, you can't be a good climate scientist if you don't care for humans. Why?

We cause and adapt to climate out of non-climate motivations. It takes systems thinking and empathy to reflect human-Earth dynamics. Image
3. The distinction of good scientists or activists is no high H-index (that's scholarly output); but that we care for faraway or unborn generations.

Anyone can care. Among the most caring are non-academic populations connected to their land and values.
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 12
Kids, which earthquake should we cause today?

Twitter is optimized for opposition research - you see the crazy and gullible like nowhere. This is how to read such tweets; good part of the population are vulnerable to such information debris. Adapt your public policy accordingly.
@RadCentrism calls them low-information individuals, no?

The same ones who think a radio transmitter can cause tsunamis and earthquakes also tell you masks don't work and climate change and SARS are hoaxes. Understand whom you govern or write policy for. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-freq…
@RadCentrism Hashtag is #LowIQPandemic, look at a few examples.

These are the mechanics of disinformation and learned helplessness in the west, how we decerebrate ourselves even before SARS viral persistence does the job for us.

It doesn't have to be this way.
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 11
1. WHO may end the COVID-19 PHEIC in May. Then what?

(1) We are through the looking-glass. @RealCheckMarker introduces what's next.

(2) Priority: Stop SARS-CoV transmission because re-infection policy (RIP) is unsustainable.

(3) Read up on mitochondria.
mdpi.com/2218-273X/13/1… ImageImageImageImage
@RealCheckMarker (2) What makes HCoV and #LongSARS, #LongCOVID or Post-COVID-19 Condition (#PCC) unique?

The SARS, MERS, OC43 replication process is so sloppy, "CoV shouldn't exist". It creates misfolded proteins (~prions?) that cause mitochondrial and multisystem damage.
Image
@RealCheckMarker 2. Good intro cals.ncsu.edu/applied-ecolog…

Reframed* here in graphical language:

* Always read all threads linked. If you only read individual tweets, you won't learn; this is epi twitter university, not facultative, as no one else is sharing this info yet ;)
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 10
Much as I appreciate @TheOnion @RealCheckMarker, they shouldn't remain our only sources of reliable scientific analysis. Image
Billions of parents and kids deserve to learn how to protect themselves and organize for real public health policy. We won't reach ALL of them via our twitter handles, I'm afraid. theonion.com/teen-who-died-…
Keep infecting children with SARS-CoV every year or two - current **policy** is *1-2 times per year,* I hear? (erratic asterixes inserted to mark how insane this is) - and you will get precisely this result:
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 7
1. Why are states ending all protections?

They want WHO to end the COVID-19 PHEIC in May, making funding harder and accelerating SARS evolution.

It *could* even work if it grows mild 🤡 But joke’s on them, SARS isn’t influenza. It will evolve for higher viral load and severity.
2. States are misinformed. I don’t even mean ‘corrupt’ in @RealCheckMarker’s epidemiological sense.

The present dysfunction is what you expect in ANY problem that requires learning, cooperation and changing deeply held beliefs in millions if not billions.
3. This is important to get right with surgical precision, because if we want a cure, we need to understand the precise mechanisms by which the disease is caused and relieved.
Read 14 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 6
1. @49security is a @GermanyDiplo @GPPi platform. Didn't followed the discussion, but much appreciate the essays. Yet, critically, as discussed previously with @thorstenbenner: you all misunderstand SARS pathogenesis. Even this biodefense essay!

Why/How/What to do? @drfranksauer
@49security @GermanyDiplo @GPPi @thorstenbenner @drfranksauer 2. I'm speechless to see the state of policy analysis. Happy to write an essay for the collection, but no essay will turn this around. Sustained focus at the highest level for many years required. @WmHaseltine calls for $5-10 billion in US, China, EU each. insideprecisionmedicine.com/topics/patient…
@49security @GermanyDiplo @GPPi @thorstenbenner @drfranksauer @WmHaseltine 3. That's $15-30 billion *per year*. Less is not worth talking about and disrespects LongCOVID patients, who are decompensating in silence. It's not much money.

Here WHO confirms mRNA vaccines cannot protect against XBB.1.5 infection. We are back to zero.
Read 21 tweets

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