A few thoughts about #IR23 and its implications for the forthcoming Defence Command Paper. 🧵

IR21 was prescient and correct in identifying Russia and China as the two major threats. Russia was always the more immediate challenge due to its proximity, and IR23 reflects this.
1/ Image
IR21 recognised that resource constraints meant that our approach to the Indo-Pacific needed to be a "tilt" not an outright "pivot." The AUKUS construct is the perfect embodiment of this aspiration, especially as the threat posed by China is expanding not contracting.
2/ Image
The duality of Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific roles means that seven Astute Class submarines is insufficient. In fact, many would argue that seven submarines is not even enough for Euro-Atlantic commitments. In other words, the UK's SSN fleet may need to grow.
3/ Image
The new SSN AUKUS design is an opportunity to augment UK submarine numbers. If Australia, a country with a more modest defence budget can commit to 8-10 submarines, Britain should do so too. 10-12 SSN AUKUS plus Astute would increase the. total SSN fleet to 19 boats.
4/
If UK's submarine fleet grows by 10-12 boats, the Royal Navy's headcount cap would likely need to increase too, from 39.400 to 45,000 sailors, to ensure that the fleet could be manned.
5/
Another interesting aspect of SSN AUKUS is that it will have vertical launch tubes. These will be ideal for launching hypersonic missiles. So, it seems likely that the UK will adopt a US-made weapon, which could potentially be nuclear tipped.
6/ Image: HI Sutton
The war in Ukraine is a reminder that all conflict is ultimately resolved on the ground. Which means that while the Royal Navy will play a key role, the Army remains a critical element. The challenge is to reconcile an expeditionary focus with a peer war fighting capability.
7/ Image
Traditionally, Britain has always maintained a highly professional small peacetime army able to "punch above its weight," with the capacity to grow quickly in a time of national emergency. This is unlikely to change, because large standing armies are costly to maintain.
8/ Image
However, there is a sense that a peacetime British Army of 72,500 is too small because it only allows a single division to be fielded. If total headcount were increased to 85-90K, the Army could field two war fighting divisions. Without this, it may not be credible.
9/
Army regeneration initiatives are already underway to rebuild capabilities. These include investment in armoured vehicles, long-range fires, air defence, UAS/ CUAS, C4I, EW / SIGINT and logistics. Despite missteps, e.g. Ajax, the Army will become more lethal and agile.
10/ Image
There are 4 British Army capability gaps:
1⃣ It needs more than 148 MBTs - least 200
2⃣ It needs a new cannon-equipped IFV - at least 400
3⃣ It needs more rocket artillery - at least 72 HIMARS
4⃣ It needs to restore lost CS / CSS enablers to support deployed troops.
11/ Image
The biggest challenge for the Army is evolving its structure away from a focus on light infantry towards the same type of high end peer war fighting units that our NATO allies and other partners have maintained.
12/ Image
Ultimately, the Army needs to be reconfigured around two war fighting divisions. One needs an expeditionary focus, i.e., able to deploys rapidly with a reduced logistical footprint. The other needs to have a manoeuvre focus, i.e., lethal and resilient for combined arms tasks.
13/
The major challenge for the Army is how to facilitate rapid expansion in time of war. At the moment, it cannot deploy without Army Reserve units providing additional personnel. The Army must be able to "fight tonight" without relying on part-time troops.
14/
Instead, the Army Reserve should have four roles:
1⃣ Provide Battlefield Casualty Replacements for deployed units
2⃣ Provide specialists for highly technical arms
3⃣ Provide combat enablers for a third deployable divsion
4⃣ Allow the Army to double in size within 6 months
15/
The Army Reserve could be reconfigured to achieve the above by restoring Cardwell's reforms of 1870 which created linked Regular and Reserve Battalions. Under this arrangement, every unit would have an Army Reserve company or squadron.
16/ Image
This brings us to the Royal Air Force. Its IR21 plans were generally well received. However, there is no escaping the fact that the total number of combat aircraft squadrons has been drastically reduced since the end of the Cold War.
17/ Image
Typhoon continues to be an asset and will in time be replaced by Tempest. The latter will be a highly capable twin-engine stealth fighter and strike aircraft. The key question is what Tempest fleet numbers are achievable in terms of assured capability versus affordability?
18/ Image
The 2023 Defence Command Paper will need to consider four RAF questions:
1⃣ Total fleet size of F-35B JSF
2⃣ Need for additional P8 Poseidon MPA
3⃣ Need for additional E7 Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft 4⃣ Need for additional A400M to compensate for the loss of the C-130 Hercules
19/
One further topic is whether the RAF needs to resume responsibility for training its own pilots rather than outsourcing it?
20/ Image
Most of what is described above, is about augmenting what we already have, rather than fundamentally changing the size and composition of our armed forces. Even so, it will require more than £5 billion extra. Rather, it will need defence spending to rise to 2.5% of GDP.
21/

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More from @nicholadrummond

Jan 30
These five armies all have one thing in common: they're using the same camouflage pattern uniforms. This makes it hard to distinguish between them. Not a good look. Is Crye Precision / MTP really so good that nothing else will do? Or are our armed forces just fashion victims?
Why is this a problem?
You need to be able to tell your own forces apart from those of the enemy. If the enemy is wearing the same uniform as you and is indistinguishable, there’s a risk of friendly fire fire incidents, blue-on-blue, as they’re called.
1/
In Ukraine, we’ve seen both sides wearing armbands to show who they are, which shows that force ID is an issue. But if you need to wear a bright blue and yellow armband, it defeats the purpose of having a camouflage uniform.
2/
Read 11 tweets
Jan 25
Ukraine says it needs 300 tanks to replace losses and conduct “combined arms manoeuvre.” This is the modern equivalent of Blitzkrieg and describes a tactical approach through which tanks and infantry supported by artillery and air power retake lost ground.
1/
NATO and its partners could potentially provide five different tanks types:
1️⃣ M1A1 / M1A2 Abrams
2️⃣ Leopard 2 A4 / A5 / A6
3️⃣ Challenger 2
4️⃣ Leclerc
5️⃣ K2 Black Panther
All are equally capable and quantifiably better than anything the Russians have fielded in Ukraine.
2/
The US Abrams is highly capable and sophisticated. But its gas turbine engine is thirsty (even though newer models have an auxiliary power unit). It’s more difficult and expensive to support,but also more difficult to maintain and this may be its Achilles heel.
3/
Read 13 tweets
Jan 21
To clear-up the misunderstanding about Germany issuing "licences" for the export of tanks. This is not a German thing. Every NATO country that exports military weapons requires customers to have an END USER CERTIFICATE that confirms they are ultimate user of the capability.
Why? To stop weapons ending-up in the wrong hands. For example, the electronics in upgraded T-72s come from a French company that didn't require an end user certificate, or licence. Their products should never have been exported to Russia. So, yes, end user certificates matter.
Over the years, we have seen South American and African regimes somehow mange to obtain weapons that they should not have been allowed to receive. If we do not control arms traffic, then convicts will become more likely.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
Much of the criticism levelled at Germany is justified. Merkel’s coziness with Putin meant that she failed to see the threat he posed or the risks of Nordstream 2. And Scholz has been slow to accept the reality of the situation Germany now finds itself in. But…
1/
Germany answered the wake-up call months ago and is fully on board with need to support Ukraine by providing military aid. In fact, only the USA and Britain have donated more. But it hasn’t been any easy journey or transformation. And it’s important to understand why.
2/
Prior to reunification, East Germans, unlike West Germans, perceived Russia as an ally. It’s only since Feb 2022 that they have seen Putin for what he really is: a heartless dictator bent on recreating the Soviet Union. So Germany’s world view has had to radically realign.
3/
Read 7 tweets
Jan 15
@RUSI_org believes a Ukraine spring offensive risks depleting key UAF reserves. But without an attempt to retake lost territory, a stalemate is more likely. This could lead to a peace deal where Russia permanently gains the territory it has already taken.
On the other hand, if Ukraine can successfully re-take lost ground, even pushing back Russian forces to their pre-2014 positions, this will increase the pressure on Putin at home. Humiliation is the surest way to get him ousted.
Tanks, IFVs and artillery - the key enablers of combined arms manoeuvre - are essential to an Ukraine counter-offensive. Higher quality hardware provided to Ukraine will help to minimise UAF losses. A total 200 MBTs or more would turn the tide.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 26, 2022
The Netflix remake of “All Quiet on the Western Front” is every bit as powerful as the original film. Whenever a significant new war film comes out, I like to see how it stacks-up against the all time greats. So here’s a thread on 12 war movies you must watch.
First, the criteria for inclusion:
- The story, script and acting must hang together as a piece of theatre
- It must have an element of hope, or message, even when depicting the horrors of war
- It must entertain
- It must build on the body of work already in existence.
By the above measures, you won’t find recent films like 1917 or Dunkirk. Neither adds anything new. Both are a triumph of visual style over cinematic storytelling. They try to be immersive fairground rides, so as impressive as they are, they are not classics. Here we go.
Read 17 tweets

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