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Richard Heydarian Profile picture
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Mar 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Yes, AUKUS will be big in coming decades but… the real deal (geographic factor alone) is the fast emerging JAPHUS alliance, as the
PHILIPPINES becomes a core element of a Japan-Phil-US trilateral alliance w/ immediate impact on TAIWAN… 🇹🇼🇵🇭🇯🇵🇺🇸🇦🇺 #Aukus #China
Both Senkaku 🇯🇵 & Mavulis 🇵🇭 are barely 100 nautical miles from Taiwan’s main shores..,
I predicted the coming alignment here:

asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-phi…
Explain context further here: amti.csis.org/marcos-jr-stee…
I explain the converging AUKUS & JAPHUS alliance here… correct headline should be “constrainment”…

asiatimes.com/2023/03/us-led…

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More from @Richeydarian

Richard Heydarian Profile picture
Mar 14
What do you think of the state of PHILIPPINE CINEMA and our entertainment industry?
Folks, let’s be constructive: kindly post suggestions, examples and case studies if ever too :)
For transparency purposes, here is a snippet of my take: opinion.inquirer.net/161675/philipp…
Read 10 tweets
Richard Heydarian Profile picture
Mar 14
“Integrated deterrence”: At once, two different trilateral alignments are coming together, namely AUKUS — Australia, US & UK — as well as the burgeoning JAPHUS — Japan, Philippines, and US — amid growing concerns over China’s designs over Taiwan and the broader First Island Chain
This was never about US alone taking on China, which enjoys operational advantages as a primarily regional superpower, but instead leveraging a network of allies and partners to keep Beijing’s ambitions in check…
The AUKUS trilateral is, by far, the most developed, even when compared to the QUAD, but what’s interesting to watch is the arguably even more important (geography alone) emergence of Japan-Philippine-US trilateral grouping, which let’s name as JAPHUS amti.csis.org/marcos-jr-stee…
Read 6 tweets
Richard Heydarian Profile picture
Mar 25, 2019
FYI, the philippines IS NOT vulnerable to Chinese “debt trap” — namely, unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratio in loan commitments — as much as to serious concerns with (lack of) transparency, overreliance on Chinese labour, and “chimera” (pa-asa) in exchange 4 geopolitical concessions
Debt trap” means unsustainable debt-to-GDP borrowing ratio. As I always argued, I doubt the Chinese will really invest that much in PH. For summary analysis & detailed report see my piece for Sydney-based Lowy Institute here: lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…
You may also check my full 50-paged report entitled “The 21 Century Silk Road: The Perils and Opportunities of China’s Belt and Road Initiative” here: adrinstituteblog.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/the-21…
Read 5 tweets

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