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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
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Mar 15 • 15 tweets • 10 min read
1. Do we see an emerging pattern of three overlapping SARS waves, one each 28 days, circling the globe?

Open question to reality-check @RealCheckMarker, whose excellent pandemic observations I often share/comment.

Three-month pattern in most data: check ✅

Details matter. Why?
2. The high-level prediction to reality-check.

Feel free to bring data; Twitter is for learning and this one is vital to effective policy.

We won’t eliminate SARS-CoV - or even just keep society in good health - if we don’t understand its basic dynamics.
3. Chinese speakers: integrate China and the rest of the world, incl. India to reflect the next big ship XBB.1.16.

We are three months out from China's big wave; IF Azvudine didn't work, we would expect the next wave to start soon.
chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/zl/sz…
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4. Why it matters:

Reading Reality will suggest to you a very different view than reading any of the leading virologists.

They all think the pandemic 'ended'. (haha, it started ending already in late 2022 with Omicron) Well guess what!

They were wrong.
Oh no: late 2021, not 2022! (🤡)

This is no dig at Dr. Drosten but a reminder for journalists that virologists are no experts in epidemiology or public health.

In fact virology seems to have a profound problem with SARS.

Don't listen to false advisors; it may cost you dearly. Image
5. Quick intermezzo to write a funding application. (haha) - Just quickly, for the smart ones: if you can figure out proper state-independent funding for WHO and potentially other UN sister organizations, you solve big part of our problem already.
6. Here how SARS CAN END, if we let it:

SARS-CoV (here a French variant) will mutate far enough (here Orf8, just like XBB.1.5) to lose momentum.

However, this may never happen at current high levels of transmission, as new VoC are introduced at all time.
7. In the Omicron era, are we seen a three-month pattern?

Yes, waves every 2-3 month in the EU

ECDC link updates weekly: …id19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu

See, I picked off the easy target, leaving the harder ones for you all to tackle. Happy hunting! ImageImageImageImage
8. #LongCovidAwarenessDay. @ECDC_EU reviewed LongCovid prevalence: 51% of cohorts recruited in the community; 67% in the hospital; 74% in the ICU.

Study quality was low.

That's the point: No state collects #LongCovid prevalence data, breaching obligations to WHO under IHR 2005. Image
@ECDC_EU 9. For some reason the technical term seems to be rat's ass, not being a native speaker I don't understand it. 🤣
@ECDC_EU 10. Maybe someone can translate or illustrate it in pictures.

Alright, behave everyone, take good care! Image
@ECDC_EU 11. Right, ECDC study link and good point here. - If only we had 18 year follow-up cohort data on SARS survivors!!

Oh wait
@ECDC_EU 12. 18-year cohort study of SARS survivors in Tianjin: Quality of life questionnaire, plasma, clinical test.

Supplementary info here because few people open it even IF they read the study. Read and share for #LongCovidAwarenessDay.
thelancet.com/journals/eclin…
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@ECDC_EU Will take the good news wherever they show up! 🤣🙏
@ECDC_EU 13. Background on Azvudine. Thread tbc if/when I see new data.

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 17
1. Life expectancy in a world Living with Covid

People want citations for the claim survival rates 20 years post infection at age 50 may be less than 30%. Look at emerging trends. =>Lawyers and epidemiologists’ job

=>Precautionary principle. Don’t wait to demand policy change ImageImage
2. I encourage folks to ask smart economists like @lajohnstondr who know trends in China for analysis of these demographic transitions. You can literally see the moment when policymakers got bored with protecting the population in the data!

See old societies like Japan, Germany. Image
3. @adam_tooze is right. Pay attention to what the pandemic does to rich/old and poor/old countries. You’d expect major societal decline if a country suddenly (subconsciously) decides to throw their old under the bus. Russia already got there; the rest I hope is redeemable. Image
Read 7 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 16
$2k scientific rap €4 billion airline revenue

🤝
Address causes of a SARS pandemic ImageImage
You see how public health and science are not on equal footing, right?

Some are flying higher than others! Time to ground them in facts again.
Some may think I’m joking in saying there is a tradeoff between climate and society, or my identities as climate scholar/activist and other roles in life.

We may be transparent on Twitter, but wider society is not.

Public health makes this clear. We need to address it clearly.
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 16
1. Where is the art of COVID?

Project alert! Good things on the way, perhaps @BabaBrinkman-grade scientific rap: Idea is a track on molnupiravir, a public health risk since the (useless) drug can create supermutated variants and exacerbate the pandemic.

Might do this. DM open🔥
2. Molnupiravir background.
3. Previous @BabaBrinkman rap: I shared some on climate/COVID, but leave you to discover yourself.

Great format for scicomm.

Perhaps more important, ask folks younger than us. I think @nephologue used one of Baba’s tracks in atmospheric science class?
Read 10 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 16
Good news! XBB.1.5 now classified as VoI. Criteria for VoC classification updated (=>new Greek letter)

Appreciate great work by volunteers. Now it's time to professionalize: Names matter in politics and coordinating public responses.

States need to deliver sufficient resources.
Quality memes 🤣 ImageImage
Criteria: this only took a several minutes and multiple clicks / downloads. By WHO's labyrinthine standards user-friendly! who.int/publications/m…
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 16
1. Azvudine. Requires medical supervision and competent governance. It's no free-pass to end COVID-19. (Only share with this context.)

Fosun and Genuine Biotech donated ~400,000 bottles of Azvudine tablets worth RMB 100 million to rural counties in China. prnewswire.com/news-releases/…
2. This overview of COVID-19 antivirals for patients with chronic kidney disease notes that Azvudine may be used also for patients with HIV or CKD and COVID-19 coinfection. frontiersin.org/articles/10.33… Image
3. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) with broad-spectrum antiviral activity against HIV,
HCV, EV71, and HBV infection that modulates the expression of P-glycoprotein (P-gp). Also effective against SARS-CoV-2. ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Mar 15
Two types of systems thinking.

One completely irrational. The other rational—or so we think.

(1) I must admit watching systemic failure live makes it easier to apply for $ for ideas to stop total systemic failure. (2) 1-10% that we (I) are deluded, and I mix up the ir/rational. Image
Not always smoothly, but reality is forcing folks to get real.

Decarbonization by design or disaster?

We have been trying to warn you all for three years and counting.
If you're remotely aware of LongCOVID, read this timeline attentively.

You can read current COVID-19 incidence data as (order of magnitude) 1:1 LC incidence, because no one is collecting data anymore.

10-20% LC per infection, vs. 10-25 fold undercount for almost the past year. Image
Read 5 tweets

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