Thread by @Laque_davis

1. As has become common knowledge, MDC-T leader, Sen Mwonzora has taken ZEC to court, over the controversial delimitation report, & pending 2023 election.

I'll share my personal thoughts on the case's context as well as the potential legal & political ramifications

A thread....

2. In terms of the case's #context, there's no debate over the seriousness of concerns around ZEC.

Without debate, ZEC has:
i. Issued a delimitation with irregularities
ii. Used an unknown census report
iii. Issued wrong coordinates
iv. Issued an incomplete delimitation

3. Stakeholders have rightfully condemned how ZEC has managed its election preparations.

The final delimitation itself (a product of irregularities & secrecy), seems like a product of deliberations between ZEC & Mr Mnangagwa.

More controversially, the VR remains unknown.

4. The Legal Component.

Whereas there's consensus over the fact that ZEC has acted illegally, there's still some red flags around the relief sought by Sen Mwonzora, at court.

The relief sought does very little, if anything at all, to resolve the actual concerns around ZEC.

5. In the second relief, Sen Mwonzora seeks the court to ensure ZEC starts the delimitation afresh.

This relief is explained not only around ZEC's illegal 40% variance threshold, but also that the recommendations by Parliament & other stakeholders were "ignored" by ZEC.

6. Unfortunately, the electoral act doesn't force ZEC to actually act on the recommendations of anyone.

Presumably because ZEC is "independent", the electoral act gives it a right to only "consider" recommendations, & only input those it's agrees with, & rationalize its decision

7. Put differently, you don't take ZEC to court and accuse it of "ignoring your recommendations".

Perhaps it's a defect in the electoral act itself, but it's our sad reality.

Consequently, the legal debate will only hover around how ZEC rationalizes its approach, nothing more.

8. The other concern with the relief is that it doesn't suggest when ZEC should be done with the 'proper delimitation'.

Reason why this is key, is that an election date isn't only subject to the finalization of a delimitation, but rather the expiration of an existing term limit.

9. It is for this reason that the electoral act nor the constitution doesn't envision the deferment of an election, not even on the basis of a disputed delimitation.

Infact, if the 2023 delimitation is set aside, then we revert to the 2008 delimitation, not wait for a new one.

10. It is for the point above, that the 3rd relief won't see the light of day.

A president has no authority to defer an election, outside a referendum & constitutional ammendment.

Infact, should that relief be granted, expect another con court challenge, to that "illegality".

11. So in terms of the law, the relief sought by Sen Mwonzora, whereas potentially having far-reaching legal & political consequences, it has its own controversies.

An election simply can't be will nilly deferred, regardless of how compelling the arguments may seem.

12. So in as far as the delimitation report is concerned, the real choice is between the 2008 & the 2023 delimitation.

In between, there's no legal basis for arguing that elections be set aside, whilst ZEC starts work on a new delimitation, guided by an unpronounced time-frame.

13. The Politics at play.

For any student of politics, it's not too surprising that someone has gone to court over the pending election.

I once opinionated that the regime which controls ZEC, has been extremely reckless & amateurish in the illegalities around the 2023 elections

14. In fact, it would seem as if the regime wanted this to be challenged.

I would imagine that there was hope to bait CCC into going to court.

Which either way, the intention was to create a controversy & benefit from challenges around it, whilst pretending to be uninvolved.

15. Yet for the "assumption" above to make any sense, one would need to prove that ZanuPF and/or Mnangagwa would benefit from an election deferment.

Either that, or ZanuPF would rather benefit from an election run with so much anxiety & disillusionment.

Here are the scenarios:

16. Perhaps we can debate the notion that ZanuPF actually prefers an election deferment...

However, it has become undeniable clear is that ZanuPF is concerned with CCC's potential, even in light of its underhand shenanigans

The current voter registration suppression is exposing

17. Put differently, if the 2023 election was a done deal, either as a consequence of ZanuPF's electoral invincibility, or enough rigging, then ZanuPF would be behaving differently.

Sadly, the manner in which ZanuPF continues to handle Nelson & CCC, tells quite a different story

18. If someone would wear ED's shoes, and be asked if he would be in support of an election deferment, brought by an Opp leader's court challenge, against an "independent body", he would probably say WHY NOT!

This is even more preferable, in light of how he performed in 2018.

19. Secondly, ZanuPF would be interested in cultivating pre-election disillusionment in the whole electoral process itself.

The timing wouldn't be any better, considering we are in the midst of a blitz registration campaign that has attracted some commendable youth interest.

20. The second political issues is around the person of Sen Mwonzora.

Unfortunately for him & his apparent cause, Sen Mwonzora has done very little over the time he has been "Leader of Opp", to consistently challenge all pre-election controversies, either legally or politically.

21. In its one year of existence for instance, CCC already has an election department, consistently engaging ZEC & monitoring all election preparations

CCC also has a public electoral reform document & even took ZEC to court over the VR.

Sen Mwonzora was conspicuously silent!

22. Secondly, whereas CCC & ZanuPF itself have shown some investment in the upcoming election, through intra-party activities, & participation in voter registration, MDC-T has been sleeping

Even with a perfect delimitation, there's little to suggest MDC-T 's election interests.

23. Now I submit the profiling of Sen Mwonzora above, not out of malice, but a hope that his envisioned endgame is exposed.

Exposing this is key, particularly because there's a narrative now, that the court case will benefit the broader pro-democracy movement.

It however won't.

24. What's actually absent in the court case, is the Sen Mwonzora's suggested political solution to this electoral crisis.

He reasons that an election be replaced by GNU, & that parties represented in Parliament, nominate public representatives for their current seats.

25. What that would ensure, is that the status qou will be maintained.

The shambolic nature of the impending election aside, I struggle to see how CCC would for instance, benefit from an elite power negotiations arrangement, where unelectable characters become power-brokers.

26. The current state of our politics, particularly post the MDC Supreme Court ruling, alone makes the holding of an election key.

The idea isn't even to retire Sen Mwonzora & his MDC to the political dustbin (which it will), but rather just to reshape our electoral democracy.

27. Admittedly though, the submissions above will read as a justification of ZEC's conduct, particularly regarding how week the relief sought by Sen Mwonzora, actually is.

It will also sound like a naive call to go for an election whose outcome will be potentially challenged.

28. Be that as it may, the room for facts cannot be emptied, so that it be filled with illusion.

In so many ways, the choice is rather on having nothing at all, or the next best thing, because the best thing itself can never exist.

We need to see beyond what we're being shown.

29. Admittedly, it's Nelson & CCC, who've the biggest headache.

They have to explain sufficiently, that they're not leading any sheep to the slaughter house

That trust & hope invested in them by otherwise apprehensive pro-change voters, won't be put to waste.

For now...enkosi!