Share this page!

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Twitter logo
Mar 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Scuttlebutt re potential resignation/retirement of Mark Shelton.

A recount would be interesting. What makes it interesting is that Stephanie Cameron who would otherwise probably win easily is a bit disadvantaged by the Hare-Clark recount bug.

#politas
The bug (see kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/09/wonk-c…) would given the other two Liberals several hundred of their own votes back as a reward for getting excluded before Shelton was elected.
Probably Cameron is still the favourite but a model I just did had her only a few hundred ahead on recount primaries. She and Shelton did tend strongly to poll well together in the same booths (Meander Valley and surrounds), but most of those were smaller booths.
Note also that the gossip may prove baseless.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 18
I detest signs like this and they are the main reason why I cannot support fully fledged optional preferential voting. #NSWvotes
I would amend the NSW electoral act such that parties erecting such signs were fined one million dollars per sign and disqualified from the seat.
The purpose of these signs is to attempt to dupe voters for other candidates into thinking that just voting 1 is in any way a good idea, and deceitfully making the message look somewhat official if the viewer does not look too closely.
Read 9 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 17
Arafura by-election count on tonight. A few comments I had about this by-election earlier in thread. #ntpol
During the campaign it has been revealed the Labor candidate has an old conviction for driving without due care arising from a fatal car accident. Whether that will have any impact who knows.
The ordinary booth count in Arafura for 2020 consisted entirely of two mobile teams. I expect that will be the case again this time ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/curr…
Read 11 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Feb 26
NSW #Newspoll! 52-48 to ALP
NSW #Newspoll Coalition 37 Labor 36 Greens 12 others 15
NSW #Newspoll Perrottet net +9 (50-41) Minns net +8 (41-33) Better Premier (skews to incumbents) Perrottet leads 43-33
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Feb 26
Tasmania's first ever FIDE-rated chess tournament (yes, surprising it's taken so long) was held this weekend to increase the number of Tasmanian players with FIDE ratings. 4 of the 5 unrated players in the event will get ratings. #taschess
This was a Scheveningen style team tournament. Carl Gorka scored 5/5 for the rated team and he may overtake me as #1 on the ACF rating list for Tas (will find out on Wednesday).
My highlight from a mediocre result. My previous move was Qb5xb2 and white responded Ra1-f1.
Now Black to play and make white resign immediately. Image
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Feb 21
#Morgan NSW (state) 52-48 to Labor

L-NP 35 ALP 32.5 Grn 9.5 ON 6.5 SFF 1.5 AJP 1.5 LC 1.0 LDP 0.5 Teal 0.5 others 11.5

I estimate 51-49 to Labor (bit hard because of high unspecified Others vote which is probably a glorified dunno.)

Teh Narrowing!

#nswvotes
Again the Morgan data is not that recent (it's from January, so about the same vintage as YouGov 56 and Resolve which I had at 54.7.) And Morgan's ALP primary estimates are low cf other polls.
An issue with this Morgan and 2PPs is it has One Nation on the readout everywhere but they've only announced in a relatively small list of seats to this point. So doing preferences off those votes is tricky because many of those voters may actually vote 1 for someone else
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jan 14
Some poll-shaped content here with John Scales claiming the Voice is in trouble but no evidence cited other than focus groups (mainstream polling shows Yes with a solid lead at present).
It's also not clear if the comments re Yes being short or only barely ahead are meant to imply a very close Yes vs No race or Yes having barely 50% vs Yes, No and undecided.
By the way there is one detail I want about the Voice. I want the government to explicitly commit that if the Voice is elected, Group Ticket Voting won't be used.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(