Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 17 11 tweets 4 min read
Arafura by-election count on tonight. A few comments I had about this by-election earlier in thread. #ntpol
During the campaign it has been revealed the Labor candidate has an old conviction for driving without due care arising from a fatal car accident. Whether that will have any impact who knows.
The ordinary booth count in Arafura for 2020 consisted entirely of two mobile teams. I expect that will be the case again this time ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/curr…
An odd one this - presumably the usual 6 pm count start time is observed (7:30 AEST) but I don't see anywhere one could physically vote after 1 pm. #Arafura
Manuel Brown (ALP) off to a flier in Mobile Team 3 with 65% primary but it's very common in Indigenous divisions for the different mobile teams to have completely different results to each other. #ntpol #Arafura
Manuel Brown (ALP) has smashed it in Mobile Team 1 as well where he got 86% (!) so it was very different to team 3 in that it was higher. #ntpol #Arafura
Brown on more or less 81% 2PP after 2 mobile teams, will be a massive swing to Labor unless the other MT is very different.
CLP did better on mobile team 2 than the others but it's heading for something like 69-31, a circa 15% swing TO the incumbent Fyles Labor government. #ntpol #Arafura
Well that's going to stuff up the NT's historic by-election stats.
Final for night 68.9% to ALP (+15.3) - postals to come won't change that much.

Let the search for the Reasons commence! (I think there will be a lot of reading of this as Voice-related).

#Arafura #ntpol
So another read here will be that this used to be a big Labor seat then there was the 2012 swing in Indigenous seats, then a personal vote for the CLP incumbent in 2016, then another good CLP candidate in 2020, and now it's just returning to type. Still, it is a by-election ...

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More from @kevinbonham

Mar 18
I detest signs like this and they are the main reason why I cannot support fully fledged optional preferential voting. #NSWvotes
I would amend the NSW electoral act such that parties erecting such signs were fined one million dollars per sign and disqualified from the seat.
The purpose of these signs is to attempt to dupe voters for other candidates into thinking that just voting 1 is in any way a good idea, and deceitfully making the message look somewhat official if the viewer does not look too closely.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 16
Scuttlebutt re potential resignation/retirement of Mark Shelton.

A recount would be interesting. What makes it interesting is that Stephanie Cameron who would otherwise probably win easily is a bit disadvantaged by the Hare-Clark recount bug.

#politas
The bug (see kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/09/wonk-c…) would given the other two Liberals several hundred of their own votes back as a reward for getting excluded before Shelton was elected.
Probably Cameron is still the favourite but a model I just did had her only a few hundred ahead on recount primaries. She and Shelton did tend strongly to poll well together in the same booths (Meander Valley and surrounds), but most of those were smaller booths.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 26
NSW #Newspoll Coalition 37 Labor 36 Greens 12 others 15
NSW #Newspoll Perrottet net +9 (50-41) Minns net +8 (41-33) Better Premier (skews to incumbents) Perrottet leads 43-33
Read 7 tweets
Feb 26
Tasmania's first ever FIDE-rated chess tournament (yes, surprising it's taken so long) was held this weekend to increase the number of Tasmanian players with FIDE ratings. 4 of the 5 unrated players in the event will get ratings. #taschess
This was a Scheveningen style team tournament. Carl Gorka scored 5/5 for the rated team and he may overtake me as #1 on the ACF rating list for Tas (will find out on Wednesday).
My highlight from a mediocre result. My previous move was Qb5xb2 and white responded Ra1-f1.
Now Black to play and make white resign immediately. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
#Morgan NSW (state) 52-48 to Labor

L-NP 35 ALP 32.5 Grn 9.5 ON 6.5 SFF 1.5 AJP 1.5 LC 1.0 LDP 0.5 Teal 0.5 others 11.5

I estimate 51-49 to Labor (bit hard because of high unspecified Others vote which is probably a glorified dunno.)

Teh Narrowing!

#nswvotes
Again the Morgan data is not that recent (it's from January, so about the same vintage as YouGov 56 and Resolve which I had at 54.7.) And Morgan's ALP primary estimates are low cf other polls.
An issue with this Morgan and 2PPs is it has One Nation on the readout everywhere but they've only announced in a relatively small list of seats to this point. So doing preferences off those votes is tricky because many of those voters may actually vote 1 for someone else
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
Some poll-shaped content here with John Scales claiming the Voice is in trouble but no evidence cited other than focus groups (mainstream polling shows Yes with a solid lead at present).
It's also not clear if the comments re Yes being short or only barely ahead are meant to imply a very close Yes vs No race or Yes having barely 50% vs Yes, No and undecided.
By the way there is one detail I want about the Voice. I want the government to explicitly commit that if the Voice is elected, Group Ticket Voting won't be used.
Read 4 tweets

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