Thread by @kevinbonham

Arafura by-election count on tonight. A few comments I had about this by-election earlier in thread. #ntpol

https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1605463609487654912

During the campaign it has been revealed the Labor candidate has an old conviction for driving without due care arising from a fatal car accident. Whether that will have any impact who knows.

The ordinary booth count in Arafura for 2020 consisted entirely of two mobile teams. I expect that will be the case again this time ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/curr…

An odd one this - presumably the usual 6 pm count start time is observed (7:30 AEST) but I don't see anywhere one could physically vote after 1 pm. #Arafura

Manuel Brown (ALP) off to a flier in Mobile Team 3 with 65% primary but it's very common in Indigenous divisions for the different mobile teams to have completely different results to each other. #ntpol #Arafura

Manuel Brown (ALP) has smashed it in Mobile Team 1 as well where he got 86% (!) so it was very different to team 3 in that it was higher. #ntpol #Arafura

Brown on more or less 81% 2PP after 2 mobile teams, will be a massive swing to Labor unless the other MT is very different.

CLP did better on mobile team 2 than the others but it's heading for something like 69-31, a circa 15% swing TO the incumbent Fyles Labor government. #ntpol #Arafura

Well that's going to stuff up the NT's historic by-election stats.

Final for night 68.9% to ALP (+15.3) - postals to come won't change that much.

Let the search for the Reasons commence! (I think there will be a lot of reading of this as Voice-related).

#Arafura #ntpol

So another read here will be that this used to be a big Labor seat then there was the 2012 swing in Indigenous seats, then a personal vote for the CLP incumbent in 2016, then another good CLP candidate in 2020, and now it's just returning to type. Still, it is a by-election ...