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Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Jan 19

On russian Telegram: Russians waking up to the collapse of the National Wealth Fund.

Russia has eaten up two-thirds of its National Welfare Fund in the last three years

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National Fund Russia's wealth - the "nest egg" for a rainy day that the government has been saving for years using the budget's oil and gas super-revenues - continues to rapidly shrink.

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By Dec 2024, the volume The fund's liquid, i.e. unused, resources decreased by another third, or $18.4 billion.

According to the agency's statistics, as of Jan 1, the NWF had $37.5 billion of "free" money left, the lowest level since 2008, when the fund was created.

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Read 6 tweets

Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Jan 12

On russian Telegram: The truth is leaking out.

Former Morgan Stanley banker warns of a financial crisis in Russia. Craig Kennedy, a former banker, says in his report a hidden defense financing scheme that, creates the preconditions for a credit crisis.

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Since mid-2022, corporate debt in Russia has grown by $415 billion (+71%), which is 19.4% of GDP. More than 70% of this increase was in sectors related to military activities.

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Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Jan 8

On russian Telegram today; Proposal by russians to freeze russian deposits, in russia. Good idea vlad!

The Central Bank is considering freezing Russians' deposits as an alternative to raising the key rate, the media reports.

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55 trillion rubles could be blocked with interest rates maintained in order to reduce inflation. The idea is supported by the Ministry of Finance, as it would help close the budget deficit.

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However, law enforcement agencies have already warned that such a step would cause mass discontent and destroy the banking system.

The world supports this initiative - get on with it!

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Read 4 tweets

Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Dec 16, 2024

On Russian Telegram today

Not enough food cards for everyone

Prices in Russian stores continue to grow and authorities in some regions are introducing food stamps. State Duma Committee Head on Financial Markets, Anatoly Aksakov proposed extending this to the entire country

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The cards for cheap fish introduced in Kamchatka are only available to WWII veterans, home front workers, children of war, concentration camp prisoners and disabled combat veterans. Pensioners and large families cannot take advantage of this support measure

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Meanwhile, the need for such assistance exists throughout the country. According to Rosstat, about 12 million people, or 8% of the population, live below the poverty line in Russia. Their income is less than 16 thousand rubles per month.

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Read 5 tweets

Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Dec 13, 2024

Trending on Russian Telegram:

“The Russian economy will collapse in 2025” – analysts are frightened by a new chilling prophecy from The Economist magazine.

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Many believe that it is owned by a transnational elite that controls the course of history. In 1983, they predicted the collapse of the USSR. In 2000, the fall of the Twin Towers. The same with the high-profile events of recent years: from the SVO to the launch of Oreshnik.

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In the latest issue of the magazine: what is being hidden behind rumors about Nabiullina's resignation, why the dollar at 104 will seem like paradise already in January, and when will they start freezing citizens' bank accounts.

Read the full transcript: t.me/TheEconomist/2…

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Beefeater

@Beefeater_Fella

Oct 30, 2024

It’s time to suspend Hungarian membership rights for serious and persistent breaches of the principles of the European Union.
In this video, we explain the European Union Article 7 process, specifically in relation to Hungary.

You can watch the YouTube presentation of this thread here 👇

youtu.be/HiMyVOOvnj8

Back in January 2024, The European Commission announced that it would will not push forward Article 7, the so-called nuclear option, against Hungary over breaches of fundamental rights until there is a strong majority in favour among member states.

Article 7 has in fact already been invoked against Hungary, back in 2018. Breaches of EU Principles were defined and agreed upon with Hungary, with specific remedies for these breaches agreed to - together with a grading of the breaches and timelines for the remedies were agreed with Hungary as a pathway to the resumption of EU funding.

The problem is that while Victor Orban and his regime has not only failed to remedy the breaches, he has in fact doubled down on some of the breaches in areas such as the judiciary and immigration rules, with a limited number of breaches being remedied and partly remedied. It is the European Commission that is responsible for progressing the Article 7 to the sanction phase, with clear grounds to do so as Hungary has failed to remedy a substantial number of breaches agreed with Orban and his right wing regime in 2018.

The Commission’s position is one of ambivalence and inaction, they claim there is insufficient member state support to progress the Article 7 sanctions which could or should result in Hungary being muted and denied a vote in EU affairs. In January 2024, after notifying Hungary of their failure to remedy breaches - the Commission put out this statement:

"It's not possible for the Commission to take a decision in the process," Didier Reynders, the European Commissioner for Justice As recognised by Transparency International, “the past decade has seen sustained attacks on the EU’s fundamental values by one of its own member states.

For the past 13 years, Hungary’s government has launched a barrage of laws aimed to erode its democracy, all while continuing to benefit from EU funds, as well as enriching its cronies through widespread corruption.

There is well-documented evidence that it has privileged granting public contracts to its supporters, diverted EU funds to its associates, subdued the country’s judicial system, undermined media freedom and pluralism, demonised non-governmental groups and criminalised some of their activities, eroded academic freedoms, violated the rights of women, refugees, asylum seekers, LGBTQI+ people and other minorities.

In a scathing resolution voted in January, the European Parliament demanded Article 7 shift to second gear and conclude the "existence of a serious and persistent breach" of fundamental rights inside Hungary. But this new step, which has never been activated, requires a written proposal by the European Commission or one-third of member states.

Attacks on the rule of law in Hungary are systemic and deeply rooted. Not only do they threaten to unravel decades of democratic progress, but they also pose a direct threat to the European Union’s democratic legitimacy and access to the European Single Market. The EU cannot claim to be democratic if one of its own member states persists in violating the democratic values upon which the EU was founded.

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Next 👉 The EU’s response

The EU’s response to these developments has so far failed to deter Hungary from continuing to slide backwards into authoritarianism. Hungary has faced numerous Article 7(1) hearings in the Council of the EU and debates in the European Parliament, which have sought to establish that there is a risk of a “serious and persistent breach” of EU values in Hungary.

Yet no recommendation on this has been issued by the Council for five years and the process remains stuck. Hungary has also been the subject of multiple European Parliament resolutions and been harshly criticised by the European Commission in its various assessments and reports.

The repeated and systemic attacks of the Hungarian government on EU values have led to EU funds being frozen and to Hungary being subject to the EU’s rule of law conditionality mechanism.

In total, Hungary’s actions are under scrutiny by three separate instruments: the horizontal and thematic enabling conditions under the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, which enables access to Cohesion Policy funding; 27 super milestones under the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Fund, which include measures such as combating corruption and rule of law reforms; and the rule of law conditionality mechanism, which imposes measures to protect the EU budget against breaches of the rule of law.

While Hungary may have undertaken some cosmetic reforms to unblock its EU funds, analysis by our partners in Hungary shows that these fail to address the remedial measures and reforms required.

In fact, the Commission’s own latest assessment is that “despite regular exchanges with Hungary, the Commission considers that Hungary has not addressed the breaches of the principles of the rule of law that led to the adoption of measures by the Council in December 2022 under the budget conditionality mechanism.”

The Commission also determined that Hungary had failed to fulfil the conditions it had proposed and committed to remedy. These breaches are related to public procurement, public interest trusts, prosecutorial action, conflicts of interest and the fight against corruption.

The Commission itself, then, has tacitly recognised that Hungary has undertaken multiple breaches of the principles of the rule of law, and failed to address these adequately. This goes beyond the risk of a “serious and persistent breach” of EU values, as stipulated by Article 7(1).

This is why Article 7(2) proceedings must be initiated. Article 7(2) would mark the first step to determining the existence of such a serious and persistent breach of EU values, as opposed to the mere risk outlined in Article 7(1). Upon confirming such a breach, which has been evident to the European Parliament since at least 2018 —when the Article 7(1) procedure against Hungary was launched—the Member States would be able to proceed to the second step under Article 7(3), potentially resulting in the suspension of specific membership rights to Hungary, including voting rights in the Council.

The last European Council meeting in December once again showcased Hungary’s obstructionist behaviour, including blackmailing the institutions and threatening to veto decisions on key policies. A strong response from Member States, as well as the EU Institutions, to these actions that deliberately undermine the Union’s functioning is now more critical than ever.”

Again in June 2024, EU M E P’s voted overwhelmingly on a resolution calling for Article 7 to be completed against Hungary.

There were the obvious detractors from this vote, primarily from Spain

From Italy and Germany

And other mostly right wing parties, who have sought to rally on russian narratives around the illegal and genocidal war being conducted by Russia in Ukraine.

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Next 👉 What is Article 7 you ask..

What is Article 7 and why is it so important?

Firstly let’s have a quick run through on the ARTICLE 7 process.

‼️ Article 7.1 The preventative mechanism ‼️

In the event of a clear risk of serious breach of EU values, a proposal is made by either the European Parliament, the European Commission, or one-third of EU countries (not including the accused country).

👉 Next - the accused country can respond to the Council of the EU, which can issue recommendations to the country

👉 Next, the EU Parliament approves the recommendations by a two-thirds majority

👉 Next the EU Council votes, four-fifths of the council must decide there is a "clear risk of a serious breach" by the accused country

👉 Next, The Council will "regularly verify" country is still in breach.

👉 The next step is set out in Article 7.2, where a serious and persistent breach of EU values is evident.

👉 Next, a proposal is made by either one-third of EU countries or the European Commission

👉 Next a response is made by the accused country, "submitting its observations"

👉 Next, the EU Parliament must approve by a two-thirds majority

👉 Next, the EU Council must vote unanimously* that there is a "serious and persistent breach" by the accused country

👉 The final step is found under Article 7.3, known as the sanctioning mechanism

👉 THE COUNCIL VOTES (again) by a "qualified majority" to suspend rights of the accused country, including voting rights.

‼️ Next, The accused country remains bound to the principles of the European Union and still has to fulfill all its other duties. They are effectively muted from voting and a say in EU policy and actions. ‼️

Sanctioning Hungary for severe breaches of the principles of the European Union by Hungary under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, allows for the possibility of suspending European Union (EU) membership rights (such as voting rights in the Council of the European Union).

If a country seriously and persistently breaches the principles on which the EU is founded as defined in Article2 of the Treaty on #EuropeanUnion (respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for fundamental rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities). Nevertheless, that country’s membership obligations remain binding.

In accordance with Article 7, on the proposal of one third of EU Member States, or of the European Parliament or of the European Commission, the Council, acting by a majority of four fifths of its members, having obtained the Parliament’s consent, may determine that there is a clear risk of a serious breach of these fundamental principles by a Member State, and address appropriate recommendations to it.

Article354 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union lays down the voting procedures to be used by the main EU institutions when a Member State faces the application of Article 7. The country in question does not take part in the vote. It is not included in the calculation of the one third of countries required for the proposal or the four fifths required for the majority. Parliament’s consent requires a two-thirds majority.

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Next 👉 The mechanics of invoking Article 7

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