Thread by @KarolinaAHird

1/ It's been a while since I've done a thread on the overall pace and prospects of 🇷🇺 offensives in 🇺🇦... so here's a quick one on our latest @TheStudyofWar assessment on indicators that the overall 🇷🇺 spring offensive appears to be nearing culmination.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1637647729613586434

2/ 🇺🇦 mil officials have made several statements supporting @TheStudyofWar's assessment that the #Donbas offensive is nearing culmination. Eastern Group spox Cherevaty stated that current 🇷🇺 offensives cannot be called "a major strategic operation."

3/ 🇷🇺 forces have struggled to secure operationally significant gains and are suffering major losses in the 4 areas of the front where they are pursuing offensives- #Luhansk Oblast, #Bakhmut, the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western #Donetsk Oblast.

4/ Reports on the current 🇷🇺 force composition in the Avdiivka/Vuhledar areas are very telling. 🇺🇦 Tavriisk Defense Forces spox Dmytrashkivskyi says that 🇷🇺 forces have reinforced elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade with reserve forces of the 98th VDV Division.

5/ The 155th Brigade has suffered continuous losses during unsuccessful assaults on #Vuhledar in Nov. 2022 and Feb. 2023, so 🇷🇺 leadership is likely scrambling to re-staff and reconstitute to try and initiate renewed attacks in the area.

6/ @GeneralStaffUA also says that 🇷🇺 mil leadership is creating the "Shtorm" detachment from the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (Eastern Military District) for hurried deployment to Vuhledar.

7/ The ad hoc reconstitution of existing units for deployment to Vuhledar and creation of sub-brigade echelon special formations suggest that 🇷🇺 combat capabilities in western Donetsk Oblast are greatly degraded.

8/ It is worthwhile to remember that 🇷🇺 has committed the approximately 300,000 mobilized soldiers (called up by partial mobilization in September 2022 for the purpose of pursuing exactly such a spring offensive) to these various offensive efforts.

9/ If 300,000 🇷🇺 soldiers have been unable to give 🇷🇺 a decisive offensive edge in 🇺🇦 it is highly unlikely that the commitment of additional forces in future mobilization waves will produce a dramatically different outcome this year.

10/ 🇺🇦 is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in critical sectors of the current frontline.