Russia Analyst @TheStudyofWar focusing on Russian campaign design and humanitarian implications of the war in Ukraine. opinions mine! ๐ต๐ฑ//๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ
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Apr 24, 2023 โข 11 tweets โข 4 min read
Very excited to share my latest for @TheStudyofWar (alongside some phenomenal maps by @georgewbarros) on the current Russian order of battle (ORBAT) in Ukraine- a threadโฌ๏ธ
1/ We assess that Russian forces are operating along 7 axes: Kupyansk (NE Kharkiv Oblast); Luhansk Oblast; Bakhmut; Avdiivka-Donetsk City; western Donetsk/eastern Zaporizhia; western Zaporizhia; and Kherson Oblast. The force disposition along these lines tell us a lot.
Mar 20, 2023 โข 10 tweets โข 4 min read
1/ It's been a while since I've done a thread on the overall pace and prospects of ๐ท๐บ offensives in ๐บ๐ฆ... so here's a quick one on our latest @TheStudyofWar assessment on indicators that the overall ๐ท๐บ spring offensive appears to be nearing culmination.
2/ ๐บ๐ฆ mil officials have made several statements supporting @TheStudyofWar's assessment that the #Donbas offensive is nearing culmination. Eastern Group spox Cherevaty stated that current ๐ท๐บ offensives cannot be called "a major strategic operation."
Feb 1, 2023 โข 7 tweets โข 3 min read
1/ A quick ๐งตon two seemingly innocuous things that are actually allowing ๐ท๐บ occupation officials to strengthen social and administrative control of occupied areas of ๐บ๐ฆ: birth certificate registration and maternity capital.
2/๐ท๐บ-backed #Zaporizhia occupation head Balitsky announced that families in occupied Zaporizhia can register ๐บ๐ฆ birth certificates- as long as they are translated into ๐ท๐บ at the Ministry of Internal Affairs. How does this expand occupational control?
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