1) The #Hungarian#Pengo has experienced the most serious #hyperinflation in the history of #currencies. This note is a 1 billion-billion Pengo note that became worthless in the matter of weeks. While it seems like history, hyperinflation is real and possible today. 👇
2) The Hungarian economy could only be stabilized by the introduction of a new currency, and therefore, on 1 August 1946, the Forint was reintroduced at a rate of 400 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 (400 octillion) = 4×10^29 Pengo, dropping 29 zeros from the old currency. 👇
3) The daily daily inflation rate in Hungary has been increasing since 1938 and in between 1945 and 1946 the daily inflation was over 200 percent! See cost of living index & exchange rate of the pengő with the U.S. dollar(log scale). The cost of living spiraled out of control!👇
4) The Pengő was so worthless that workers on the streets swept 100s of billions of Pengő notes in the gutter on the streets of Budapest. 100s of billions of pengős couldn't buy a dozen of eggs. Hyperinflation happens fast! Pay attention!
The writing was on the wall.
This is a good summary of the highest documented hyperinflation cases in history. Hungary #1, Zimbabwe #2, Yugoslavia #3. At its worst in Hungary, my home country, prices doubled roughly every 15 hours. Now you know why I work on Bitcoin and Gold payment and savings solutions.
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If you really want to know what’s going on, you only need to know this. There is an all out war against the financial sector, regional banks and crypto alike. The recent actions are a show of force to impel compliance. It’s no accident that the new CBDC paper dropped today.
The regional bank and crypto sectors are risks to centralized financial control and CBDC implementation. Since those elements won’t back down, their systematic elimination has commenced. Such financial pogrom is incongruent with everything that made America what it is today.
ECB’s Lagarde said yesterday that a Digital Euro has a key role in payment autonomy and that “payment apps, cards aren’t necessarily European. Digital Euro is intended to be safe, sovereign & available.”
It's a 25bps rate raise/hike, but it's also a bailout. We just call the bailout part BTFP now. ding ding ding ding ding
Fed Chair Powell says that the Fed is committed to bring inflation down to 2%. I don't think a 2% is realistic. In my view, the new normal, if things ever stabilize, will be 3-4% for a while.
The global derivatives market is a $2+ QUADRILLION (2,000+ TRILLION) ticking time-bomb. When banks fail, derivatives won't just unwind in an orderly fashion. Few people understand this.
These are some of the top U.S. banks ranked by derivatives exposure (double-digit TRILLIONs).
Credit Suisse has a $39 Trillion off balance sheet derivatives exposure. We don't know: 1. whether it's all delta neutral. 2. What's getting picked up by UBS. 3. Which countries an unwind could impact. A chain reaction of bank unwinds could become potentially catastrophic.
The Bank of International Settlements estimates that there is a combined $52+ Trillion off balance sheet Dollar-denominated debt among non-banks outside of the U.S. and non-U.S. banks. In case of non-orderly derivatives wind-downs this could become extremely problematic.
There is more than $22 Trillion in the U.S. banking system. The FDIC has $124.5 Billion on its balance sheet and a $100 Billion line of credit from the U.S. Treasury. FDIC assets cover only 1.26% of deposits. About the size of Silicon Valley Bank. One bank. Let that sink in.
Of course, the FDIC doesn’t cover anything above $250k… so basically no businesses. It’s practically worthless. People trust banks more than what they should. Tier 1 leverage ratios (tier 1 capital/consolidated assets) show just how much more leveraged banks are vs stablecoins.
Silicon Valley Bank had $209 billion in assets and over $175 billion in deposits. They couldn’t redeem $42 billion. Just to illustrate my earlier point on leverage ratios, duration mismatch and the fact that banks don’t have people’s cash. Most banks only have ~15% tier1 capital.
2) The reserve portfolio composition is primarily short term U.S. t-bills, cash, cash equivalents and other short term market instruments. U.S. T-bill maturity is under 60 days, reverse repos are rated A-2 or better and MM funds are highly liquid. Some precious metals held.
3) Financials as of 12/31/2022:
+ Assets exceed liabilities.
+ Consolidated total assets amount to at least US$ 67,044,148,175.
+ Consolidated total liabilities amount to US$ 66,083,530,757,
+ "At least" is the key word. My guess: Tether reserves are likely over-collateralized.