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Mar 21 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
🧵 Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N) is an unneeded new #nuclear weapon @POTUS @SecDef @SECNAV decided to cancel. Sadly, in FY23, Congress disagreed, partly because then-@US_STRATCOM strongly supported the SLCM-N. New @US_STRATCOM does not. His letter: ucs-documents.s3.amazonaws.com/global-securit…
TL/DR: The letter supports a low-yield, non-ballistic capability that can’t be spotted being deployed, but doesn’t see SLCM-N as the only option to fulfill that desired capability. Instead, @US_STRATCOM would like a study on all options, including conventional, to fill that role.
Meaning @US_STRATCOM would like more options but is not wedded to SLCM-N. This should help build support in Congress for the Biden administration’s #Nuclear Posture Review decision to cancel the SLCM. The 2022 NPR declared SLCM-N "no longer necessary": media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/20…
Unfortunately, because the previous STRATCOM head was such a vocal advocate for it & the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff also expressed support for it as an option (while acknowledging @POTUS already has LOTS of options), Congress gave the program $45 million in FY23 funding.
That support overcame opposition from @SecDef & @SECNAV, who both endorsed the decision to cancel the SLCM, as well as the strong language from the administration issued opposing the proposed Congressional funding : whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
The Biden opposition has not changed in FY24. The budget request released last week again requests no money for the SLCM-N, though not all details are out. We do know the $20M in @NNSANews funding for the SLCM's #nuclear warhead is zeroed out. energy.gov/sites/default/…
So, @US_STRATCOM’s views could play an important role in how this develops. Republican leaders on House Armed Services Committee have already indicated that support for the SLCM-N is only a part of a hugely aggressive push to expand the US nuclear arsenal. (Not a good idea!)
The Strategic Forces subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee is likely to play a huge role in how the Senate comes down on the issue. I was told most Democrats did not have strong views in FY23, so Republican preferences carried the day, leading to the $45M in funding
Will the Biden administration be able to convince Democrats to support their president, and cancel the SLCM-N? That remains unclear, but having a @US_STRATCOM head who isn't pushing all out for the weapon will help. Press coverage by @brykharris here:
defensenews.com/congress/budge…

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More from @StephenUCS

Stephen Young Profile picture
Oct 27, 2022
BREAKING: The Biden administration's #Nuclear Posture Review, just released, is a terrifying document. It not only keeps the world on a path of increasing nuclear risk, in many ways it increases that risk. Here it is: media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/20…
Citing rising threats from Russia & China, it argues the only viable U.S. response is to rebuild the entire US nuclear arsenal, maintain an array of dangerous Cold War-era nuclear policies, & threaten the first use of nuclear weapons in a variety of scenarios.
This NPR does not reflect the sensible steps President Biden proposed as a candidate to reduce the nuclear threat, as he did when asked about No First Use by a UCS activist:
Read 18 tweets
Stephen Young Profile picture
Oct 12, 2022
Biden administration's brand new, long-delayed National Security Strategy declares the post-Cold War era "over" reflecting the new, more challenging security environment. It calls for "out-competing" China & "constraining" (not containing) Russia. whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
On nuclear weapons issues, it declares in the 2030s, US will for the first time "need to deter two major nuclear powers"--reflecting projections China will grow its small nuclear arsenal. However, even after such growth, China's arsenal will remain far smaller that US's.
Quite sensibly, the document promotes "taking further steps to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our strategy and pursuing realistic goals for mutual, verifiable arms control, which contribute to our deterrence strategy and strengthen the global non-proliferation regime."
Read 15 tweets
Stephen Young Profile picture
Sep 21, 2022
To put it simply, Putin's #nuclear threats are NOT okay. If Russia continues to lose the war in Ukraine--entirely possible--Putin could use nuclear weapons, with unimaginable consequences. reuters.com/world/europe/p…
This is an incredibly dangerous time, a new era of predatory nuclear-armed countries explicitly using their nuclear capabilities as a shield while conducting an illegal, aggressive & atrocious conventional war that seeks to overthrow and/or dismember a neighboring country.
This is not an unexpected phenomenon--it falls under the "stability-instability paradox" where a nuclear-armed country feels free to launch an aggressive conventional war because it believes other countries will be deterred from responding directly. That is exactly Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Young Profile picture
Jun 1, 2022
A new @UCSUSA explainer on what "tactical" nuclear weapons are, why they are dangerous, & what steps the US should take to first limit & eventually eliminate them: ucsusa.org/resources/tact…
Step 1 is abandoning plans to build new ones, like the Trump administration's new sea-launched nuclear-armed cruise missile that the Biden administration is wisely seeking to cancel: armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/upl…
Step 2 is withdrawing the remaining 100 nuclear gravity bombs in Europe, which have been left for political reasons, not military ones. Ukraine does not change that calculation, though the withdrawal could potentially be tied to ending the war.
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Young Profile picture
Apr 18, 2022
US proposes to spend $260 billion to build 600+ #nuclear missiles, an unneeded & dangerous plan that intentionally & explicitly makes the US heartland a target for Russian nuclear attack. It is just plain stupid, when we have 100s of nuclear missiles at sea that are invulnerable.
It's called the "sponge" theory, because middle America is supposed to absorb a massive Russian nuclear attack, killing untold millions just so Russia won't strike other targets with more people & other nuclear weapons. That's just stupid, more idiotic than a SpongeBob plot.
The sole purpose of US nuclear weapons should be to prevent a nuclear attack on us. The theory goes we need to be able to destroy what our adversaries value. The 100s of nuclear missiles on US subs can do that & – unlike land-based missiles – they aren’t vulnerable to attack.
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Young Profile picture
Mar 28, 2022
Top-lines from the NNSA Budget request released today. The request for Weapons Activities - where most #nuclear weapons $$ is - is up $1B to $16.5B from last year's request, or 6%, & up $500M or 3% from the amount Congress actually appropriated. #FY23Budget
Notably, we can't compare it to what the NNSA projected last year they would request this year. They are officially required to include such projections in the budget request BUT last year they didn't do it. (Don't know if they will include it this year, bet they won't.)
That is important because, for several years running, the NNSA budget for Weapons Activities grew by more than it was expected to grow. Then in FY21 it jumped MASSIVELY when Trump intervened personally to give NNSA extra billions after he was lobbied by nuclear hawks in Congress.
Read 5 tweets

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