Thread 1/18
In August, @alexbollfrass & I jotted down thoughts on how the dynamics of Russia’s war on Ukraine might affect the global nuclear order #OpenAccess @SurvivalEditors @IISS_org.
We are often asked to reflect on those conclusions.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
In August, @alexbollfrass & I jotted down thoughts on how the dynamics of Russia’s war on Ukraine might affect the global nuclear order #OpenAccess @SurvivalEditors @IISS_org.
We are often asked to reflect on those conclusions.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
Thread 2/18
When we wrote, we did so to make a “contribution of scholarship.” Early in the war, there were lots of quick, reactionary takes predicting the nuclear order’s collapse. We attempted to think through what history, political science, & policy literature teaches.
When we wrote, we did so to make a “contribution of scholarship.” Early in the war, there were lots of quick, reactionary takes predicting the nuclear order’s collapse. We attempted to think through what history, political science, & policy literature teaches.
Thread 3/18
Our conclusion was that the global nuclear order, flawed as it may be, is much more durable than others were warning. Even with its innate inequities & Russia’s misbehavior, the order will continue to serve the interests of nuclear energy- & weapons-capable states.
Our conclusion was that the global nuclear order, flawed as it may be, is much more durable than others were warning. Even with its innate inequities & Russia’s misbehavior, the order will continue to serve the interests of nuclear energy- & weapons-capable states.
Thread 4/18
That conclusion spurred some criticism on Twitter, in email messages from colleagues, & otherwise.
That conclusion spurred some criticism on Twitter, in email messages from colleagues, & otherwise.
Thread 5/18
Yet, as far as nuclear (non)proliferation, arms control, & the potential use of nuclear weapons, we stand by our conclusions.
Yet, as far as nuclear (non)proliferation, arms control, & the potential use of nuclear weapons, we stand by our conclusions.
Thread 6/18
In other words: It is simply too premature to declare the collapse of, or cause of irreparable damage/harm to, the global nuclear order. We don’t see convincing evidence to the contrary. The nuclear order has, after all, spent most of its existence in crisis.
In other words: It is simply too premature to declare the collapse of, or cause of irreparable damage/harm to, the global nuclear order. We don’t see convincing evidence to the contrary. The nuclear order has, after all, spent most of its existence in crisis.
Thread 7/18
Critics have been predicting the NPT’s collapse every year for over 5 decades. The treaty hasn’t just been historically pivotal in preventing proliferation, but it literally solves problems of confidence & transparency every day between nuclear-capable rivals.
Critics have been predicting the NPT’s collapse every year for over 5 decades. The treaty hasn’t just been historically pivotal in preventing proliferation, but it literally solves problems of confidence & transparency every day between nuclear-capable rivals.
Thread 8/18
No proliferation cascade appears on the horizon at the moment, & no state is moving to withdraw from the NPT. Problems with Iran & the DPRK pre-date this war. And South Korean President Yoon walked back his brief, off-the-cuff comments about nuclearization.
No proliferation cascade appears on the horizon at the moment, & no state is moving to withdraw from the NPT. Problems with Iran & the DPRK pre-date this war. And South Korean President Yoon walked back his brief, off-the-cuff comments about nuclearization.
Thread 9/18
The war spotlights longstanding fairness & justice concerns about the NPT & stalling Art. 6 disarmament commitments. But at TPNW Meeting of States Parties, nearly all countries strongly emphasized the treaties’ complementarity. The ban isn't here to replace the NPT.
The war spotlights longstanding fairness & justice concerns about the NPT & stalling Art. 6 disarmament commitments. But at TPNW Meeting of States Parties, nearly all countries strongly emphasized the treaties’ complementarity. The ban isn't here to replace the NPT.
Thread 10/18
Putin’s recent actions RE: New START have clearly been a blow to bilateral U.S.-Russia arms control. But is this really the end of an enterprise that had periods of difficulty without adequate inspections & limits? One that has seemed to burn out, only to return?
Putin’s recent actions RE: New START have clearly been a blow to bilateral U.S.-Russia arms control. But is this really the end of an enterprise that had periods of difficulty without adequate inspections & limits? One that has seemed to burn out, only to return?
Thread 11/18
We maintain that nuclear arms control will be one of few pathways left for international rehabilitation of Russia. Given the Kremlin’s brutal imperial aggression against Ukraine, the global eye will be drawn to reducing nuclear risks in the future.
We maintain that nuclear arms control will be one of few pathways left for international rehabilitation of Russia. Given the Kremlin’s brutal imperial aggression against Ukraine, the global eye will be drawn to reducing nuclear risks in the future.
Thread 12/18
Arms control may, however, need to become more informal given U.S. Senate ratification politics, while drawing on existing templates & emerging technologies for verification.
Arms control may, however, need to become more informal given U.S. Senate ratification politics, while drawing on existing templates & emerging technologies for verification.
Thread 13/18
The many veiled & sometimes more overt nuclear threats by Putin are certainly concerning, but did they really spell the “end” or “significant erosion” of the nuclear taboo? No.
The many veiled & sometimes more overt nuclear threats by Putin are certainly concerning, but did they really spell the “end” or “significant erosion” of the nuclear taboo? No.
Thread 14/18
There has been considerable coverage of the lack of military utility of using nuclear arms in this war. And of the international consequences for Russia, particularly as China & India have lined up against potential nuclear use.
There has been considerable coverage of the lack of military utility of using nuclear arms in this war. And of the international consequences for Russia, particularly as China & India have lined up against potential nuclear use.
Thread 15/18
The risk of nuclear use remains elevated but certainly not imminent. Nuclear threats are central to nuclear deterrence & have been uttered many times by leaders in atomic age. Putin’s threats are concerning, but this isn't a slow motion “new Cuban Missile Crisis."
The risk of nuclear use remains elevated but certainly not imminent. Nuclear threats are central to nuclear deterrence & have been uttered many times by leaders in atomic age. Putin’s threats are concerning, but this isn't a slow motion “new Cuban Missile Crisis."
Thread 16/18
As this war moves forward, It will continue to test the global nuclear order. But the order’s ability to weather the storm over the decades should not be forgotten every time a new nuclear challenge emerges.
As this war moves forward, It will continue to test the global nuclear order. But the order’s ability to weather the storm over the decades should not be forgotten every time a new nuclear challenge emerges.
Thread 17/18
But for the moment, this is all a reminder that nuclear weapons & accompanying strategies are scary to ponder over. And when leaders start talking about them in the context of conflict, it naturally draws strong reactions from the public & commentators.
But for the moment, this is all a reminder that nuclear weapons & accompanying strategies are scary to ponder over. And when leaders start talking about them in the context of conflict, it naturally draws strong reactions from the public & commentators.
Thread 18/18
As we wrote last August: “The main consequence of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war is renewed public awareness of the often unpalatable role nuclear weapons play in international politics.”
As we wrote last August: “The main consequence of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war is renewed public awareness of the often unpalatable role nuclear weapons play in international politics.”
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