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In August, @alexbollfrass & I jotted down thoughts on how the dynamics of Russia’s war on Ukraine might affect the global nuclear order #OpenAccess @SurvivalEditors @IISS_org.

We are often asked to reflect on those conclusions.

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… Thread 2/18

When we wrote, we did so to make a “contribution of scholarship.” Early in the war, there were lots of quick, reactionary takes predicting the nuclear order’s collapse. We attempted to think through what history, political science, & policy literature teaches.

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Have reckless Russian nuclear threats & actions in Ukraine brought the global nuclear order to the brink of collapse or exposed it as toothless? Neither. Check out the #openaccess lead article in @SurvivalEditors @IISS_org from me & @alexbollfrass.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… 2/16

As awful as the situation is on the ground in Ukraine, & as criminally negligent as Russia’s nuclear behavior has been, the foundation of global nuclear order is much more robust than observers often contend.

Thread 1/16

In a new survey experiment article now published in @The_JOP, with @RDavisGibbons & @JonathonBaron, we test the relative strength of elite vs. group cues in shaping US public opinion on nuclear politics. doi.org/10.1086/714924 2/16

So far, opinion surveys and survey experiments by scholars have primarily assessed public support for using nuclear weapons in conflict or engaging in nuclear proliferation. We now turn to survey experimental research on nuclear disarmament in our article.