Stack Hodler Profile picture
Mar 23 4 tweets 1 min read
Wild how everyone becomes a #Bitcoin maximalist when the crypto VCs and shitcoin casinos blow up.

Crypto influencers will shill anything if you pay them enough.

But stop sponsoring their podcast and suddenly the truth comes out.
Gains in alts are driven by speculative VC money / FTX style ponzis.

Some retail folks *might* catch a pump and get out in time - but they're mostly exit liquidity. Scare off the VC's and what's left?

Just Bitcoiners relentlessly stacking Sats come hell or high water.
That also means Bitcoin focused businesses are the most sustainable, and the most likely to be able to sponsor media in a bear market.

Hence the narrative shift from people with an audience that suddenly need to court Bitcoin businesses.
This is why it's so important to have sound money.

When a whole society is trying to outpace inflation, principles and morals go right out the window.

Financial independence makes it easy to remain principled and say no to obvious scams, however lucrative they may be.

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More from @stackhodler

Mar 22
#Bitcoin is being eaten up on @coinbase

Meanwhile, they (or their banking partners) have dramatically limited ACH deposit limits.

Are they trying to throttle the bank runs? Image
I opened a Coinbase account in 2013.

I think my daily ACH limit was $50K back in the day.

Last week it was $10K. Now it's $1K per day. Fishy. Image
Time is running out, folks.

Soon it will be $100K+ buys for accredited investors only - for your safety.

#Bitcoin for me CBDC for thee. Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
My 2020's survival portfolio: Cash🇨🇭🇺🇸/t-bills, #Bitcoin, Gold, & NO DEBT

Why no debt?

In a deflationary spiral, credit money goes poof and jobs disappear. Debt is much harder to pay off.

Debtors become forced sellers to those with cash and no debt. Cash buys a whole lot more.
Why #Bitcoin and Gold?

Central bankers fear deflationary spirals above all and will debase currencies to avoid them.

Bitcoin and Gold will protect your buying power in that scenario. And they're neutral monies that aren't tied to a single market, or any one country's fate.
Between the deflationary and inflationary extremes, the cash will be eroded by inflation, #Bitcoin will be volatile, and Gold will be frustrating.

But Japan barely containing global yields and interest expenses swallowing budgets tells us an extreme is approaching.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 8
"When will something break?"

I'm convinced something nearly broke on October 21st, 2022. But few noticed.

Watching the charts that morning it was clear that something big was happening. But then the Fed (via Nick Timiraos) and the Japanese MoF intervened at the same moment.
Timiraos is well known as the designated Fed leaker.

Look at the timing of this dovish tweet, just as USDJPY was going parabolic.

Now take a second to appreciate the fact that the global financial system is partially held together by tweets.
The tweet also marked the top in the US 10 year yield, which was also starting to go parabolic.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 7
AI is to WW3 as nukes were to WW2.

Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple are entering into an AI arms race that will deeply impact humanity with unpredictable (positive and negative) outcomes.

Their work could determine the outcome of the power struggle between the US and China.
According to Google, "the scale of the largest AI computations is doubling every six months, far outpacing Moore’s Law."

In other words: We're entering the "suddenly" part of AI advancements.
It's only a matter of time before AI is applied to offensive cyber warfare campaigns. And eventually to drones / fully autonomous weapons systems.

Warfare will change.

But so will everyday life.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 31
Central banks have been stacking gold at the fastest pace since 1967.

The era of sovereign debt as the go-to safe haven is coming to an end and few people have caught on.

#Bitcoin is the people's reserve asset. But central banks could soon be stacking Sats too... Image
Harvard economist Matthew Ferranti just laid out the rational case for Central Banks to stack #Bitcoin

His analysis concludes that in an age of sanctions, Central Banks should allocate to BTC and Gold. More sanctions risk = Higher ideal BTC allocation

sites.google.com/view/matthewfe… Image
In early 2022 many of us speculated that Central Banks would be forced to move towards neutral reserve assets after the world's 11th biggest economy was kicked off SWIFT and had their assets seized.

That hypothesis has now been proven correct. Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
The Bank of Japan just set a new monthly record for bond purchases.

They bought more than $128 Billion in Japanese government bonds this month.

And today was the third day in a row of unscheduled purchases, including 2 year and 5 year bonds. Why it matters: Image
Japanese capital has propped up foreign debt and equity markets for years.

Ballpark figures: Japan has >$3 Trillion in foreign equity and >$5 Trillion in foreign debt instruments (IMF)

But what if that capital goes back to Japan, enticed by higher yields?
The YCC policy means Japanese bonds have had a price floor since 2016.

And global market participants have baked that floor into their calculations whether they know it or not.

If there are big changes to the YCC policy? All your models are destroyed. Completely devastated.
Read 7 tweets

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