Predicting the future from an Alpine village 🇨🇭🐄 It's all one trade that leads to #Bitcoin
4 added to My Authors
Jun 23 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
Putin just gave a speech with massive implications for #Bitcoin and global macro.
We won't read a word of it in Western media, so I pulled out the interesting bits 👇
Regarding freezing of FX reserves and assets:
"The very principles of the global economic system have taken a blow."
"Fundamental business notions as business reputation, the inviolability of property and trust in global currencies have been seriously damaged."
Jun 21 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The USD system is under threat. To what extremes will the US go to defend the system that affords it such enormous privilege? This is THE question of the 2020s.
March 15 - Saudi Arabia considers accepting Yuan for oil sales
May 15 - Yuan loses ~7% of value vs. USD in 2 months.
Thesis: The US has aggressively raised interest rates to apply extreme devaluation pressure on the Yuan, making it less appealing as an alternative for trade.
The Yen, BoJ, and ECB are collateral damage.
Jun 19 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
"Are you worried about your Bitcoins bro?!"
Are you worried about the entire fiat system breaking, anon?
Or do you have zero clue whats happening right now and how it will impact your portfolio?
Are you worried that global debt is completely unserviceable at higher rates?
And that corporates and sovereigns will fall like dominos once they have to refinance their debt?
Are you worried that your bonds will be monetized via money printing like they are in Japan?
Jun 17 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
GM from Switzerland, where our central bank cleverly channeled safe haven demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF) into:
- $9.6 Billion of Apple stock
- $7.7B of Microsoft
- $4.2B of Amazon
And billions more worth of other US large caps.
How did they do it, and how rekt are stonks?
Everyone knows the 🇨🇭 Franc is a safe haven currency. But why?
🐄 Stable country
☮️ Traditionally neutral
🧠 Sensible fiscal and monetary policy.
An enviable debt to GDP of ~40% 🤯
Also: The Swiss constitution required the Franc to be partially backed by gold until 1999.
Jun 16 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
The world is in a sovereign debt bubble mixed with an inflation crisis. The Fed, ECB, and BoJ are completely trapped.
#Bitcoin is a scarce bearer asset built for this exact moment.
And yet most investors still see Bitcoin as a risk-on play thing. But that will soon change. ⏳
Most wealth is held in equities, bonds, cash, and real estate - all fiat derivatives facing inflation and counter-party risk.
Bitcoin's lack of counter-party risk is not widely understood. But as systemic risk increases, I expect investors to begin to place a premium on Bitcoin.
Jun 13 • 28 tweets • 9 min read
We are living through the biggest economic shock of our lifetimes. And one of the most pivotal moments in human history.
The rules of the game are to stay solvent and secure your #Bitcoin in cold storage.
Megathread on what you need to know to keep your cool through the chaos:
Everything is breaking.
Years of 0% interest rates encouraged everyone to take on cheap debt. Corporations, countries, individuals... Everyone.
Most of the debt wasn't used productively - meaning most of it will never be paid off.
And now that interest rates are rising... 🗑️🔥
Jun 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
ETH is bleeding out. Even with 10% of the supply held hostage in staking contracts.
Need a new scam narrative ASAP or this thing's a donut.
ETH has survived this long because of:
- Crypto Kitties
- DeFi 'yield'
Majority of this stuff no one gave a damn about besides the opportunity to get rich quick. Zero sum behavior.
Zero remorse watching ETH die a slow death.
May 20 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The story of the year is playing out in foreign exchange markets right now.
🇺🇸 The dollar is crushing major fiat currencies
🇷🇺 But the Ruble is crushing the dollar. Ruble is up over 7% against the dollar today alone 🤯
The implications are much bigger than most realize.
Why this is happening:
- Russia has said they will only accept Rubles for payment for their energy.
- By only accepting Rubles, Russia is backing their currency with the demand for energy.
- Meanwhile USD continues to be backed by faith in the United States. Yikes.
May 19 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
On the eve of #monkeypox it's worth re-reading this thread about why some people are convinced it's best to treat us like cattle.
If I could edit, I'd replace the term "élite" with something like "sociopathic bureaucrats"
And I wouldn't make the argument they aren't evil. Morality aside, they're probably trying to save their skin.
May 19 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
US Economy 2009-2022: VC funded startups with no commercial viability overpaying our best and brightest to attract revenue from other VC funded startups with no commercial viability.
A waste of human energy on a massive scale, funded by ZIRP + money printer.
When capital is cheap, you can throw money at anything. 1 success makes up for 100 failures.
But those 100 failures suck a lot of human potential out of the market. The market got code monkeys tweaking ad tech when we needed proper engineers working on food and energy security.
May 17 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
It's easy to diss fiat clown world. And our culture is no doubt lacking in soul and substance. But a look at history shows how far a rising tide has lifted all boats.
As we head into chaos, let's highlight legitimate progress while still sharing a vision for a better world.
We made some massive gains fighting global poverty over the past centuries. Consider that living hand to mouth used to be an average existence.
New technologies, the hive mind of the Internet, and the incentives of capitalism, have helped us drastically reduce poverty since 1800
May 10 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
10 reasons I'm calmly buying and holding #Bitcoin while the world panic sells:
1. The Fed says they'll keep raising rates. I call BS. Rising rates will lead to mass defaults. The same way that variable rate mortgages fucked everyone in '08, now featuring nation states.
2. Remember how they tried to convince us that inflation was transitory? Now they're trying to convince us that they'll raise rates and sell down their balance sheet.
Do you believe them now, anon?
The math says they're lying.
Apr 25 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
#Bitcoin isn't going to a new ATH until 1 of 2 things happens:
1. Fed floods the system with liquidity after breaking something (most likely IMO)
2. A large economy adopts Bitcoin. E.g. Russia demands it in exchange for commodities.
Here's why we may need to be patient:
The Fed will withdraw liquidity from the system through raising rates and QT. Fewer USD = stronger dollar and falling "risk" assets
But the more liquidity is withdrawn, the higher the odds that something in the system breaks.
And then the Fed is forced to act (i.e. print)
Apr 20 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
We talk shit about Jay Powell, but no one brrrr's harder than the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda.
The BoJ will soon need to decide if they want to destroy the Yen or global markets.
Why is this happening and what does it mean for Bitcoin? I'll explain in plain english.
The Yen is crashing because Japan is continuing their Yield Curve Control while every other central bank is starting to raise rates & talk tough.
Basically, the Bank of Japan is printing Yen out of the sky to buy unlimited amounts of Japanese government debt.