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Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Mar 24 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
As the ONS infection survey comes to a (HOPEFULLY TEMPORARY) close, infections are rising in England and Scotland and 1 in 40 people are infected across the UK. 1/2
Really sharp increases in the NW (almost 4% of population infected) and - most worrying of all - really sharp increases in the over 70s with almost 1 in 20 infected!! (5%) infected. Boosters 6 months ago now too.

Note numbers up a lot in school age kids too. 2/2
PS thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart! Tune into @IndependentSage at 13:30 for mode detailed numbers with @Dr_D_Robertson and the world experts on #LongCovid

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 24
LONG COVID 🧵:
Clips from today's @IndependentSage from world leading experts. PLEASE WATCH!

1. @EricTopol We know a LOT MORE now about how Long Covid manifests in people & physiological mechanisms (loads) BUT are FAR BEHIND on finding treatments. Signifcant pandemic legacy 1/9
2. Laura Moore Vogel, who has Long Covid herself for over 2 years, explains what impact it has has on her and how it has been utterly life changing 2/9
3. Following on from this - it is NOT in the mind. Evidence of physiological causes are incontrovertible and many.
Long Covid *can* though *cause* psychological conseqeunces such as depression as a consequence of significant suffering. 3/9
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 22
🧵
Excellent @bmj_latest article by Steve Reicher, @SusanMichie , @robertjwest & @ProfJohnDrury pointing out that while govt whatapps talk about trying to frighten life out of people this WAS NOT THE ADVICE FROM SAGE

bmj.com/content/380/bm…

Short thread on its main points!

1/5
While the advice from SAGE behavioural subgroup SPI-B was that people needed to understand the threat,they ALSO said people to understand what they could do about it and how they would be SUPPORTED. It should be about empowerment - not fear! 2/5 Image
When advising this, SPI-B emphasised the need for supporting more marginalised & deprived communities, where action was harder to take (e.g. because of housing, work and money pressures).

They also said coercive language should NOT be used 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 12
THREAD:
On the eve of junior doctor strikes, let's examine what the latest NHS Staff Survey which came out last week has to say about how our valuable NHS staff are feeling about their jobs and their future

TLDR: things getting worse, particularly around understaffing & pay

1/6
First some context: 2020 survey was done just as the devastating winter wave was starting, the 2021 survey was during a Delta autumn, before Omicron hit. 2022 survey was on the downswing from Sept/Oct BA5 wave. So you might have expected some improvement this year... 2/6 Image
Instead morale is falling, with more staff thinking of leaving and more experiencing work pressure - they're not dramatic drops, but they still matter.

Only 25% of staff think there are enough staff at their organisation and just over half say thay have adequate supplies 3/6 Image
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 10
QUICK UPDATE ON NHS SITUATION IN ENGLAND:
So the good news is that ambulance response times have come right down again from their scary December peak. Below is example for C2 (serious but not life threatening) calls.

1/5 Image
Pressures in A&E have also reduced with waiting times coming down BUT we are still far higher than in previous years with 28% of patients waiting longer than 4 hours (prev target 5%).

% waiting more than 12 hours also down but remains v high (7.4% from 10%, historically 0%) 2/5 Image
But this reduction in emergency care has not yet reduced pressure on other services. Waits for diagnostic tests are not rising as fast, but not coming down and still v high 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 9
QUICK THREAD ON ENGLAND COVID ADMISSIONS

Well this is very disappointing - hospital admissions with Covid have gone up a bit this last week. And it's not driven by in hospital transmission, implying there is def more covid around in community. 1/4
Not quite sure what to make of it - we've not had such a long flat peak for a while (not really since Delta in 2021). Zoe symptom tracker app shows a flat top but decline in infections, so... 2/4
One possibility is that Zoe has the trend wrong.

Another is that the trend is right but more older people are getting infected or more people need hospital as vaccines wane.

A final possibility is that this is a blip and next week will be down again 3/4
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 3
THREAD on current Covid situation in UK
TLDR, latest wave receding, no scary new variants on horizon at the moment. Vaccines work but booster programme over :-(
Hospital peaks getting lower, troughs a bit higher. 1/6
ONS infection survey data and hospital patient data show increases in Wales, decrease in NI and flat in Scotland & England.
Admissions in England show peak was ~ a week ago.
Note that troughs are staying quite high though & so many covid waves vs flu. 2/6 ImageImageImageImage
Deaths are still coming down from December wave, with deaths from most recent wave not showing up yet.

All cause deaths this week are below average for first time in a long time. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets

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