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Smartkarma Profile picture
@smartkarma
Mar 27, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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🧵Smartkarma #macro #threadoftheday

Bank Watch – Deutsche, Deustche Alles Ist Vorbei
— Andreas Steno @AndreasSteno

1/
Why is Deutsche Bank suddenly selling off violently again without a trigger?

2/
Could the FIMA-repo usage be a hint that a European entity needs USDs?

3/
We look at alternative explanations of the contagion in European banking stocks

4/
In Conclusion:

"Deustche Bank is selling off rapidly without an evident trigger event. What is going on? Is the crisis spreading to Europe and will it turn into a credit crisis? We look at the situation here." — Andreas Steno

5/
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More from @smartkarma

Smartkarma Profile picture
Aug 15, 2023
🔴CHINA PROPERTY DEVELOPERS IN DISTRESS -

* Country Garden
* Longfor Group
* Sino-Ocean
* R&F Properties
* Yango
* Dalian Wanda
* Yuzhou Group
* China Cinda Asset Management / Tianfang
COUNTRY GARDEN $2007.HK

The company anticipates reporting a net loss ranging from 45 to 55 billion RMB for H1'23.

This is a stark contrast to the net profit of approximately 1.9 billion RMB recorded in H1'22.
The anticipated net loss can be attributed to a significant decrease in the gross profit margin of the real estate business due to an overall industry sales decline and foreign exchange losses.
Read 20 tweets
Smartkarma Profile picture
Jun 12, 2023
🟢 Malaysian Banks Screener 🔴

@galliano_victor and his team screen 6 large and mid-cap Malaysian banks’ core profitability, and their credit quality metrics, to better identify banks with good earnings growth prospects, and the potential to deliver sustainably improved returns. Image
In terms of balance sheet, 4 out of 6 banks have sound capital adequacy ratios (which we define as December 2022 CET1 Ratio of 14%+). Image
On credit quality, CIMB is the negative outlier with the highest NPL ratio relative to its coverage, but it does have a healthy core capital ratio. Image
Read 10 tweets
Smartkarma Profile picture
Jun 12, 2023
🇰🇷 🟢 Lutronic Corp $085370.KS

Hahn & Company, a major PE firm in Korea, disclosed it plans to delist Lutronic Corp through a public tender offer.

The tendering period ends on 14 July, and the payment date is 18 July. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
This deal is relatively straightforward with minimal preconditions, and there is little possibility of a proxy battle, so the spread will likely remain tight.
At the current stage, there are two potential trading opportunities to consider.

If the ongoing tender offer fails, there could be a second tender offer at a higher price. Taking into account the case of Osstem Implant (048260 KS), a KOSDAQ-listed company that conducted...
Read 9 tweets
Smartkarma Profile picture
Jun 12, 2023
🧵Smartkarma #macro #threadoftheday

How the Treasury Refresh May Not Be Catastrophic
— Cam Hui @HumbleStudent

1/ Image
The U.S. Treasury market is expected to see a flood of new issuance which would draw liquidity from the financial system and create headwinds for the price of risk assets.

2/ Image
Tthere may be a narrow benign liquidity path for the Treasury account reset if the assets parked at the Fed’s reverse repo facility shift into Treasury paper.

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Smartkarma Profile picture
Jun 12, 2023
🧵Smartkarma #bottomup #threadoftheday

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Spread Opens Again for Opportunity; Others Have Swung Substantially
— Vincent Fernando, CFA

--
$TSM.US

1/ Image
TSMC is back to an 11.8% ADR premium after dropping to 8%... potentially another good Long/Short point.

2/ Image
UMC has flipped to a -0.6% ADR discount, from a 5.6% Premium. If the discount ticks slightly more negative then a good setup level will open up.

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Smartkarma Profile picture
Mar 28, 2023
LATAM BANK BREAKDOWN

The US banking crisis and the Credit Suisse rescue have put bank stocks in the spotlight, for all the wrong reasons.

LatAm banks are not looking bad at all. 1/
The smaller Mexican BanBajio and BanRegio have negligible AFS MtM hits and very healthy core capital.

At the other extreme, BCI of Chile is weak on CET1 and has a bigger MtM hit to core capital, along with Credicorp. 2/
LIQUIDITY

BIg Brazil banks are strong in terms of loan to deposit ratio (image), and they have respectable Basel III metrics in the form of Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). 3/
Read 5 tweets

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