Share this page!

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
@kevinbonham
Mar 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Twitter logo Read on Twitter
High chance now that NSW will get a hung parliament. But it's a vanilla one where it's clear who governs and they just don't quite have a majority, not one of the really close ones that hangs in uncertainty until some indie finishes one of his sentences 17 days later. #NSWvotes
Also ABC 2PP down to 54-46.
Note that the statement from the three indies today means that the Greens' requirements for supply and confidence will become irrelevant.
I do like the PIPER GREENWICH MCGIRR letterhead. Like they're a law firm or something.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 29
Just a note on what happened with sites doing projections on Saturday night that resulted in a number of apparent Labor wins and what seemed a near-certain majority collapsing. The main issue was overconfident assumptions about prepoll swings replicating booth swings. #NSWvotes
Not only is there a general trend of prepolls having a lower swing than booths at this election but the gap happens to have been especially large in some seats where Labor needed it not to be. Holsworthy 5.8% different, Terrigal 4.0%, Ryde 4.4%, Goulburn 3.3% Kiama 3.5%
This makes a difference because the number of prepolls is so huge. In Terrigal there are over 12000 prepolls. If those had swung as much as the booths then Labor would be almost 800 ahead instead of over 200 behind.
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 28
Hearing there's silly stuff about #nswvotes being a "landslide". Crazy example from yesterday pm (by which time majority was already unclear):

" Barry O’Farrell defeated Kristina Keneally in a landslide victory similar to Saturday’s."

(culprit is news.com.au )
2011: 64.2% 2PP, 32 govt seats lost, 16.5% swing, 45 seat majority

2023: (approx) 54% 2PP, 12-3 govt seats lost, 6% swing, 1 to 3 seat minority
I was not even looking for this, I found it by accident while looking for next Liberal leader speculation.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 26
Tasmania has the last Liberal state government in the country now so does that mean Tasmania is politically conservative? NO!

A thread following #NSWvotes to explain this issue.

#politas
1. It's easy to see from federal stats that Tasmania is not "conservative". Tasmania had Labor's highest state 2PP at every federal election from 1993 to 2019 (but not 2022).
2. The Tasmanian Liberal government has been dominated by moderates. The "moderates" have had the numbers and supplied all three Premiers from 2014 onwards. The current Premier, Jeremy Rockliff, is the most moderate so far, to the point of having been conspicuously so.
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 18
I detest signs like this and they are the main reason why I cannot support fully fledged optional preferential voting. #NSWvotes
I would amend the NSW electoral act such that parties erecting such signs were fined one million dollars per sign and disqualified from the seat.
The purpose of these signs is to attempt to dupe voters for other candidates into thinking that just voting 1 is in any way a good idea, and deceitfully making the message look somewhat official if the viewer does not look too closely.
Read 9 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 17
Arafura by-election count on tonight. A few comments I had about this by-election earlier in thread. #ntpol
During the campaign it has been revealed the Labor candidate has an old conviction for driving without due care arising from a fatal car accident. Whether that will have any impact who knows.
The ordinary booth count in Arafura for 2020 consisted entirely of two mobile teams. I expect that will be the case again this time ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/curr…
Read 11 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Mar 16
Scuttlebutt re potential resignation/retirement of Mark Shelton.

A recount would be interesting. What makes it interesting is that Stephanie Cameron who would otherwise probably win easily is a bit disadvantaged by the Hare-Clark recount bug.

#politas
The bug (see kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/09/wonk-c…) would given the other two Liberals several hundred of their own votes back as a reward for getting excluded before Shelton was elected.
Probably Cameron is still the favourite but a model I just did had her only a few hundred ahead on recount primaries. She and Shelton did tend strongly to poll well together in the same booths (Meander Valley and surrounds), but most of those were smaller booths.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(