Over the last 2 months, Russia has undertaken a series of thrusts in eastern #Ukraine to capture territory & weaken Ukraine’s armed forces. Soon, it will be the turn of the Ukrainians to resume their offensive operations. 1/20 🧵 
2/ It is important to explore the purpose of these offensives because those planning them will have to balance multiple political, strategic and military imperatives for the coming attacks against Russian forces. abc.net.au/news/2023-03-2…
3/ Purpose in these circumstances is vital. It provides the starting point for strategy, and operational planning. But, it also ensures that those who will participate in these offensives understand why they do so.
4/ Soldiers will always follow orders. But it is purpose that inspires them, provides the foundation for extra exertions and often is the reason why so many offer their ‘last full measure of devotion’ on the battlefield.
5/ What are the elements of purpose in Ukraine’s forthcoming offensives?
6/ First, Ukraine wants to re-seize the initiative in this war. Their Kharkiv and Kherson offensives grasped the initiative from the Russians and forced them onto the defensive over winter.
7/ However, for a variety of reasons including slow arrival of western support and the injection of Russian mobilised troops, Ukrainian momentum seeped away over the Christmas-New Year period.
8/ Now, with the Russians generating some momentum with their Easter attacks, the Ukrainians will be keen to reverse this momentum and regain their battlefield advantage.
9/ In doing so, it demonstrates to Russians that nothing they do can destroy Ukrainian resolve. In this battle of wills, destroying Russian morale will be an important objective of the Ukrainian offensives.
10/ Ukraine will want to spread the word to the entire Russian invasion and occupation force that their days in Ukraine are numbered. This psychological aspect of offensive operations is very important.
11/ The Ukrainians also want to take back their territory. This is an obvious and important goal, and one constantly referred to by President Zelensky in his speeches.
12/ Large parts of eastern & southern Ukraine remain under Russian occupation. For those in areas occupied by Russia, the Ukrainian offensives will provide a ray of hope that their turn for liberation will come soon.
13/ Another obvious purpose of the offensives is to continue degrading the the Russian Army. The Ukrainians will want to destroy as much of the Russian army as possible, but this is subordinate to recapturing territory.
14/ The Ukrainian offensives will also be a vital message to the west that the Ukrainian armed forces are able employers of the military assistance provided over the last few months.
15/ Finally, the offensives matter greatly to the Ukrainian people at home and those who remain refugees abroad.
16/ Since 2014, Russia has occupied its territory and conducted a sustained information campaign against the notion of Ukrainian sovereignty.
17/ Since February 2022, the people of Ukraine have endured rape, murder, destruction of their cities, and systemic attempts by Russia to eradicate Ukrainian culture, symbols and nationhood.
18/ The offensives launched in the next few months will be heartbreakingly bloody, and may not be the final blow that destroys the Russian Army in #Ukraine. abc.net.au/news/2023-03-2…
19/ But, if the west holds its nerve, and the Ukrainians steadfastly apply their fighting power against the Russians while taking back large swathes of their land, the offensives may be the beginning of the end of this war. End.
20/ Thank you to the following the images and links used in this thread: @Liberov @DefenceU @defencehq @TDF_UA @ABCNews @MaryanKushnir
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