Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian control. Ukraine, naturally, wants it back. But what does history show about the challenges of reconquering it? In a series of threads, I'll look at the lessons of past wars.
2/ Crimea's fascinating military history has been of interest to me for many years – I travelled there in the early 2000s to study its old battlefields, so some of this will be drawn from personal recollections and notes.
3/ Let's review Crimea's physical geography. It's a roughly diamond-shaped peninsula, about 320 km (200 mi) east to west by about 200 km (120 mi) north to south. It's mostly flat, apart from the Crimean (or Yayla) Mountains in the far south, which are up to 1,500m (5000 ft) high.
4/ Crimea borders the Black Sea on its west and south sides, and the Sea of Azov in the east. It's separated from Russia by the narrow Kerch Strait, across which Russia has built Europe's longest road and railway bridge to link it to the Russian mainland.
5/ The peninsula's climate is almost subtropical in the far south, but in the north and centre it's mostly arid, as a 2018 vegetation map highlights. Agriculture is dependent on an irrigation canal that runs from the Dnipro river in the Kherson region.
6/ Crimea is separated from the Ukrainian mainland by the Syvash, an area of salt lagoons and marshes which connects to the Sea of Azov via a narrow strait. It's also known as the Putrid or Rotten Sea for its pungent smell in the summer. (This image shows its *natural* colours.)
7/ The Syvash covers around 2,500 km² (965 mi²) and is up to 35 km (21 mi) wide, but is very shallow – only about 3 m (10 ft) deep at maximum. In some places and at the right times, it can be forded on foot. This is militarily significant, as we'll see.
8/ There are only three narrow places along the entire 100 km (62 mi) long northern flank of Crimea where the peninsula is connected to the Ukrainian mainland. This is why Crimea has often been called a "natural fortress", and makes it a difficult place to invade.
All three of these have been used to invade Crimea, as we'll see in later threads in this series.
10/ For completeness we should mention the Kerch Strait as an entry point, as that's also of military importance. It's only 3.1 km (1.9 mi) wide at its narrowest. As well as the bridge, it's also crossed by ferries from Port Krym to the Chushka Spit on the Russian side.
11/ The Arabat Spit is a 112 km (70 mi) long sand spit – the longest in the world – which is only 270m (885 ft) wide at its narrowest point. It's low and exposed, relies on two bridges to connect it to the Ukrainian mainland and only connects to Crimea at its far southern end.
12/ There is no proper road along the spit, only a sandy track, although Russia has suggested that it might create a new road to improve Crimea's connection to the Ukrainian mainland. Currently, though, it would be difficult for an army to pass along it.
13/ The Chonhar Peninsula is a narrow wedge of land extending south from the Ukrainian mainland into the Syvash, 20 km (12 mi) west of the Arabat Spit. Two road bridges and one railway bridge at its tip carry transport routes from Melitipol in Ukraine across the Syvash.
14/ The Perekop Isthmus is the only unbridged link between Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland. It's only 9 km (5.5 mi) wide at its narrowest point and is of vital military and economic importance. The road, railway line and canal from Kherson to Crimea all come through here.
15/ There are a few small towns on the isthmus. Perekop (pictured below) itself is technically the oldest – a town has existed there since ancient Greek times. Armyansk was founded by Armenian merchants to trade with the Tatars who formerly ruled Crimea.
16/ To the south, Krasnoperekopsk, literally "Red Perekop", is a Soviet town built to house workers at a nearby bromine factory. The village of Ishun a short way further south is also of military significance for its location near three lakes – Krasne, Kyatske and Kyrleutske.
17/ While there have been battles on the Chonhar Peninsula and Arabat Spit, the Perekop Isthmus has been recognised for millennia as the gateway to Crimea. A line of fortifications has existed across the isthmus for at least 2,500 years, and has repeatedly been fought over.
18/ The ancient Greek name for Perekop, Taphros, means 'dug-out place'. It likely reflected the presence of a ditch across the isthmus at this point. The ditch is still there – it's clearly visible from space – and was fortified further between the 15th and 20th centuries.
19/ The fortification, known variously as the Perekop Wall, Turkish Wall or Tatar Ditch, is up to 45m (150 ft) wide and was originally up to 20m (65 ft) deep. It was anchored at the Perekop end by the now ruined Or-Kapi fortress, from which Perekop takes its name.
20/ The fort was originally built by the Tatar Crimean Khanate in the 15th and 16th centuries to defend Crimea from the Mongol-descended Golden Horde. After the Horde's final defeat, the Tatars launched raids into the north to capture Slavs for the Ottoman slave trade.
21/ Not surprisingly, this caused conflict with the Cossacks who lived along the Dnipro. This brings us to the invasion of Crimea in 1675 by the Cossack Ivan Sirko, which will be the subject of my next thread in this series. /end
1/ Russians who were mobilised in 2022-23 and have survived to the present day may not live much longer, as they are reportedly being formed into assault squads, where they will likely be sent to their deaths. This is forecast to lead to a bribery bonanza for commanders. ⬇️
2/ The 'Vault 8' Telegram channel reports:
"Bad news is coming from two directions—the "North" group and Zaporizhzhia."
3/ "There, the threat of "[sign a] contract or [go to an] assault" for mobilised soldiers has shifted to shady tactics: removing mobilised soldiers from the unit's roster and preparing them for transfer.
1/ Civilians under Russian occupation in the Luhansk region are starving and dying of cold because of a breakdown in essential services under the 'Luhansk People's Republic' (LPR), according to a complaint by a Russian warblogger. ⬇️
2/ A significant number of Ukrainians – many of them elderly people, who grew up under the Soviet Union and often still hold pro-Russian views – still live in the frontline Svatove and Kreminna districts. However, they now have no electricity and conditions are reportedly dire.
3/ 'Veterans' Notes' warns that the region faces 'mass casualties' among the civilian population – who are now regarded by the occupation authorities as Russian citizens – if urgent action is not taken to restore power:
1/ The new US National Security Strategy blames 'undemocratic' European governments for failing to make peace with Russia, takes a pro-Russian position on NATO, reflects white nationalist views on European demographics, and pledges overt support for far-right parties. ⬇️
2/ While the strategy states that "it is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine", it says that "the Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war…
3/ …perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition."
(This is likely a reference to European regulation of social media and the 2024 annulment of the Romanian election due to Russian interference.)
1/ A group of Russian soldiers say their commanders are "simply driving us to the slaughter" after extorting and brutally beating them: "There's no support, no air force, nothing. You just stomp along and die." They are all now listed as missing in action. ⬇️
2/ The men are from the 328th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment (military unit 01011), which is currently fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region. Heavy fighting is ongoing south of Zaporizhzhia city, where the Russians are trying to open the route to the north.
3/ The soldiers say that they "encountered abusive practices—money collection—and we refused. Yet another money collection. They started collecting money for some company needs, from us, the soldiers. We refused to contribute. The next day, they came and beat us."
1/ An apparent attack on a 'shadow fleet' tanker off the coast of Senegal means that Ukraine may now be able to attack Russian interests worldwide, says Russian war correspondent Alexander Kots. He calls it a new and threatening phase in the war. ⬇️
2/ Kots, who writes for Komsomolskaya Prava, has asked how Russia should respond to the severe damage suffered on 27 November by the oil tanker Mersin. Its Turkish owners report that the vessel was hit by four external explosions while it was in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
3/ The crew is reportedly safe, but videos show the vessel down by the stern after the engine room flooded. The incident is strikingly similar to the confirmed Ukrainian attacks on 28 November against two oil tankers which were travelling to Russian Black Sea ports.
1/ A video showing alcoholics, newly recruited into the Russian army, has attracted scorn, concern, and even some compassion from Russian warbloggers. They suggest that the men will be deliberately killed for being useless when they arrive at the front. ⬇️
2/ "We are Russians - we don't care' comments that this video is far from being a unique case (a fact that other warbloggers have confirmed). "If you think these are just the most hopeless ones, then I have some bad news for you – these are only the ones that got busted."
3/ The 'House among the Laurels' Telegram channel writes:
"Oh, this war and its long duration, during which unknown meanness and a multitude of "grey" schemes have proliferated—options for greedy profits among participants in or close to the frontline communities."