Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian control. Ukraine, naturally, wants it back. But what does history show about the challenges of reconquering it? In a series of threads, I'll look at the lessons of past wars.
2/ Crimea's fascinating military history has been of interest to me for many years – I travelled there in the early 2000s to study its old battlefields, so some of this will be drawn from personal recollections and notes.
3/ Let's review Crimea's physical geography. It's a roughly diamond-shaped peninsula, about 320 km (200 mi) east to west by about 200 km (120 mi) north to south. It's mostly flat, apart from the Crimean (or Yayla) Mountains in the far south, which are up to 1,500m (5000 ft) high.
4/ Crimea borders the Black Sea on its west and south sides, and the Sea of Azov in the east. It's separated from Russia by the narrow Kerch Strait, across which Russia has built Europe's longest road and railway bridge to link it to the Russian mainland.
5/ The peninsula's climate is almost subtropical in the far south, but in the north and centre it's mostly arid, as a 2018 vegetation map highlights. Agriculture is dependent on an irrigation canal that runs from the Dnipro river in the Kherson region.
6/ Crimea is separated from the Ukrainian mainland by the Syvash, an area of salt lagoons and marshes which connects to the Sea of Azov via a narrow strait. It's also known as the Putrid or Rotten Sea for its pungent smell in the summer. (This image shows its *natural* colours.)
7/ The Syvash covers around 2,500 km² (965 mi²) and is up to 35 km (21 mi) wide, but is very shallow – only about 3 m (10 ft) deep at maximum. In some places and at the right times, it can be forded on foot. This is militarily significant, as we'll see.
8/ There are only three narrow places along the entire 100 km (62 mi) long northern flank of Crimea where the peninsula is connected to the Ukrainian mainland. This is why Crimea has often been called a "natural fortress", and makes it a difficult place to invade.
All three of these have been used to invade Crimea, as we'll see in later threads in this series.
10/ For completeness we should mention the Kerch Strait as an entry point, as that's also of military importance. It's only 3.1 km (1.9 mi) wide at its narrowest. As well as the bridge, it's also crossed by ferries from Port Krym to the Chushka Spit on the Russian side.
11/ The Arabat Spit is a 112 km (70 mi) long sand spit – the longest in the world – which is only 270m (885 ft) wide at its narrowest point. It's low and exposed, relies on two bridges to connect it to the Ukrainian mainland and only connects to Crimea at its far southern end.
12/ There is no proper road along the spit, only a sandy track, although Russia has suggested that it might create a new road to improve Crimea's connection to the Ukrainian mainland. Currently, though, it would be difficult for an army to pass along it.
13/ The Chonhar Peninsula is a narrow wedge of land extending south from the Ukrainian mainland into the Syvash, 20 km (12 mi) west of the Arabat Spit. Two road bridges and one railway bridge at its tip carry transport routes from Melitipol in Ukraine across the Syvash.
14/ The Perekop Isthmus is the only unbridged link between Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland. It's only 9 km (5.5 mi) wide at its narrowest point and is of vital military and economic importance. The road, railway line and canal from Kherson to Crimea all come through here.
15/ There are a few small towns on the isthmus. Perekop (pictured below) itself is technically the oldest – a town has existed there since ancient Greek times. Armyansk was founded by Armenian merchants to trade with the Tatars who formerly ruled Crimea.
16/ To the south, Krasnoperekopsk, literally "Red Perekop", is a Soviet town built to house workers at a nearby bromine factory. The village of Ishun a short way further south is also of military significance for its location near three lakes – Krasne, Kyatske and Kyrleutske.
17/ While there have been battles on the Chonhar Peninsula and Arabat Spit, the Perekop Isthmus has been recognised for millennia as the gateway to Crimea. A line of fortifications has existed across the isthmus for at least 2,500 years, and has repeatedly been fought over.
18/ The ancient Greek name for Perekop, Taphros, means 'dug-out place'. It likely reflected the presence of a ditch across the isthmus at this point. The ditch is still there – it's clearly visible from space – and was fortified further between the 15th and 20th centuries.
19/ The fortification, known variously as the Perekop Wall, Turkish Wall or Tatar Ditch, is up to 45m (150 ft) wide and was originally up to 20m (65 ft) deep. It was anchored at the Perekop end by the now ruined Or-Kapi fortress, from which Perekop takes its name.
20/ The fort was originally built by the Tatar Crimean Khanate in the 15th and 16th centuries to defend Crimea from the Mongol-descended Golden Horde. After the Horde's final defeat, the Tatars launched raids into the north to capture Slavs for the Ottoman slave trade.
21/ Not surprisingly, this caused conflict with the Cossacks who lived along the Dnipro. This brings us to the invasion of Crimea in 1675 by the Cossack Ivan Sirko, which will be the subject of my next thread in this series. /end
1/ A lack of working military vehicles has left Russian soldiers reliant on civilian vehicles for logistics and battlefield transportation, but soldiers using such vehicles face severe punishments, including being sent to their deaths in assaults. ⬇️
2/ A Russian soldier writes to the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel:
"I am a serviceman. What specific status does not matter: contract soldiers, volunteers, and mobilized soldiers are all lumped together in this problem."
3/ "I bought a car (Patriot) for the needs of the Special Military Operation – my own money + from friends and acquaintances who could help. In addition to administrative tasks (to go to a meeting here, a meeting there), I use this car to provide combat missions for my unit.
1/ Russian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region are brutally beaten by their commanders for getting wounded or losing drones, are denied food, water, and medical treatment for injuries, and are sent into 'meat wave' assaults from which few return. ⬇️
2/ The account of an injured Russian soldier interviewed by The Insider illustrates the Russian experience of the extraordinarily bloody fighting in the Kursk region, in which thousands are likely to have died. The man is a member of the 155th Marine Brigade.
3/ From the start of his arrival in the region in August, the soldier faced arbitrary violence and brutal treatment from his company commander and deputies. "I was forbidden to eat or drink, and I could only sleep with permission, and even then they gave me about three hours.
1/ Widespread looting of Russian civilian homes and businesses by Russian troops in the Kursk region is being directed by Russian officers for their personal profit, according to a Russian marine who has fought in the area. ⬇️
2/ A large part of the Kursk region, beyond that occupied by Ukrainian forces, has been evacuated by Russia to make it into a closed military zone. However, residents have reported many instances of their properties being ransacked by their 'defenders'.
3/ A Russian contract soldier who has been fighting in the Kursk region with the 155th Marine Brigade has been speaking with the independent Russian outlet The Insider. He was sent there after being wounded in a 'meat assault' which left only 7 survivors out of 100 men.
1/ A cult of 'Saint Stalin' has appeared in the Russian Orthodox Church, with the Soviet dictator being hailed as a saint or even a secret Orthodox bishop. In reality, Stalin closed or destroyed nearly all churches in Russia and had 85,000 Orthodox clergy shot in 1937 alone. ⬇️
2/ The Russian religious journalist and researcher Alexander Soldatov has noted the increasing appearance of Joseph Stalin in the pantheon of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). Stalin is portrayed as a saint in religious icons and priests are blessing monuments to the dictator.
3/ Soldatov links the emerging cult of 'Saint Stalin' to the Russian Orthodox Church's increasingly militaristic outlook, in which it has openly supported Russia's military campaign in Ukraine and blessed Warhammer 40K-inspired 'purity seals' for soldiers.
1/ A Russian soldier from Yakutia cut off his own gangrenous leg after spending 17 days on the front line with an untreated severe wound. A lack of medical care and evacuation is reportedly causing wounded Russians to commit suicide or chop off their limbs with axes. ⬇️
2/ 38-year-old Alexander 'Shurik' Fedorov spent 17 days in a basement in the village of New York, Donetsk, and was forced to amputate his own leg, which was festering due to a wound. His fellow soldiers were afraid to do the amputation in the field, so he had to do it himself.
3/ Fedorov is now in hospital in Volgograd and is waiting for a prosthesis to be fitted to replace his missing leg. He told a regional newspaper: "I was mobilized to defend the country and served in the Special Military Operation."
1/ X's algorithm was changed in mid-July 2024 to systematically boost Republican-leaning accounts and Elon Musk's own account following his endorsement of Donald Trump, according to a newly released computational study of engagement from the Queensland University of Technology.⬇️
2/ The study, by Professor Timothy Graham of the QUT and Professor Mark Andrejevic of Monash University, analysed 56,184 posts sent by a number of accounts between January 1, 2024 and October 25, 2024 and examined view counts, retweet counts, and favourite counts for each.
3/ The analysis found "a structural break for Musk's metrics around July 13, 2024" following which his view counts increased by 138.27% and retweets increased by 237.94%, with a similarly large increase for favourites. This was far in excess of other accounts monitored.