Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian control. Ukraine, naturally, wants it back. But what does history show about the challenges of reconquering it? In a series of threads, I'll look at the lessons of past wars.
2/ Crimea's fascinating military history has been of interest to me for many years – I travelled there in the early 2000s to study its old battlefields, so some of this will be drawn from personal recollections and notes.
3/ Let's review Crimea's physical geography. It's a roughly diamond-shaped peninsula, about 320 km (200 mi) east to west by about 200 km (120 mi) north to south. It's mostly flat, apart from the Crimean (or Yayla) Mountains in the far south, which are up to 1,500m (5000 ft) high.
4/ Crimea borders the Black Sea on its west and south sides, and the Sea of Azov in the east. It's separated from Russia by the narrow Kerch Strait, across which Russia has built Europe's longest road and railway bridge to link it to the Russian mainland.
5/ The peninsula's climate is almost subtropical in the far south, but in the north and centre it's mostly arid, as a 2018 vegetation map highlights. Agriculture is dependent on an irrigation canal that runs from the Dnipro river in the Kherson region.
6/ Crimea is separated from the Ukrainian mainland by the Syvash, an area of salt lagoons and marshes which connects to the Sea of Azov via a narrow strait. It's also known as the Putrid or Rotten Sea for its pungent smell in the summer. (This image shows its *natural* colours.)
7/ The Syvash covers around 2,500 km² (965 mi²) and is up to 35 km (21 mi) wide, but is very shallow – only about 3 m (10 ft) deep at maximum. In some places and at the right times, it can be forded on foot. This is militarily significant, as we'll see.
8/ There are only three narrow places along the entire 100 km (62 mi) long northern flank of Crimea where the peninsula is connected to the Ukrainian mainland. This is why Crimea has often been called a "natural fortress", and makes it a difficult place to invade.
All three of these have been used to invade Crimea, as we'll see in later threads in this series.
10/ For completeness we should mention the Kerch Strait as an entry point, as that's also of military importance. It's only 3.1 km (1.9 mi) wide at its narrowest. As well as the bridge, it's also crossed by ferries from Port Krym to the Chushka Spit on the Russian side.
11/ The Arabat Spit is a 112 km (70 mi) long sand spit – the longest in the world – which is only 270m (885 ft) wide at its narrowest point. It's low and exposed, relies on two bridges to connect it to the Ukrainian mainland and only connects to Crimea at its far southern end.
12/ There is no proper road along the spit, only a sandy track, although Russia has suggested that it might create a new road to improve Crimea's connection to the Ukrainian mainland. Currently, though, it would be difficult for an army to pass along it.
13/ The Chonhar Peninsula is a narrow wedge of land extending south from the Ukrainian mainland into the Syvash, 20 km (12 mi) west of the Arabat Spit. Two road bridges and one railway bridge at its tip carry transport routes from Melitipol in Ukraine across the Syvash.
14/ The Perekop Isthmus is the only unbridged link between Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland. It's only 9 km (5.5 mi) wide at its narrowest point and is of vital military and economic importance. The road, railway line and canal from Kherson to Crimea all come through here.
15/ There are a few small towns on the isthmus. Perekop (pictured below) itself is technically the oldest – a town has existed there since ancient Greek times. Armyansk was founded by Armenian merchants to trade with the Tatars who formerly ruled Crimea.
16/ To the south, Krasnoperekopsk, literally "Red Perekop", is a Soviet town built to house workers at a nearby bromine factory. The village of Ishun a short way further south is also of military significance for its location near three lakes – Krasne, Kyatske and Kyrleutske.
17/ While there have been battles on the Chonhar Peninsula and Arabat Spit, the Perekop Isthmus has been recognised for millennia as the gateway to Crimea. A line of fortifications has existed across the isthmus for at least 2,500 years, and has repeatedly been fought over.
18/ The ancient Greek name for Perekop, Taphros, means 'dug-out place'. It likely reflected the presence of a ditch across the isthmus at this point. The ditch is still there – it's clearly visible from space – and was fortified further between the 15th and 20th centuries.
19/ The fortification, known variously as the Perekop Wall, Turkish Wall or Tatar Ditch, is up to 45m (150 ft) wide and was originally up to 20m (65 ft) deep. It was anchored at the Perekop end by the now ruined Or-Kapi fortress, from which Perekop takes its name.
20/ The fort was originally built by the Tatar Crimean Khanate in the 15th and 16th centuries to defend Crimea from the Mongol-descended Golden Horde. After the Horde's final defeat, the Tatars launched raids into the north to capture Slavs for the Ottoman slave trade.
21/ Not surprisingly, this caused conflict with the Cossacks who lived along the Dnipro. This brings us to the invasion of Crimea in 1675 by the Cossack Ivan Sirko, which will be the subject of my next thread in this series. /end
1/ Russia's leaky air defences are once again coming under scrutiny following the huge destruction caused by last night's Ukrainian strikes on Russian distribution centres. Russian warbloggers say that air defence teams aren't even being paid currently. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' reports that mobile air defence teams in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, formed from the Moscow police department (MOGI), "aren't receiving their salaries. Payments are delayed throughout 2026. Not only these regions, but the entire border region as well."
3/ "It’s quite possible this is linked to local budgets, after all, [they] aren’t the Ministry of Culture, and the cash there takes a roundabout route through local officials.
1/ Ukraine's devastating overnight drone attacks on Wildberries warehouses in Russia are likely intended to cause damage across the Russian economy and increase public discontent. The estimated losses may exceed $1.2 billion. ⬇️
2/ At least 7 people are reported to have been killed and 49 more injured in the attacks. The head of Wildberries has promised to help the families of those killed. According to Russian estimates based on previous warehouse fires, financial losses are likely to be colossal.
3/ In a similar fire at Shushary, near St. Petersburg, in January 2024, Wildberries estimated the damage at 10 billion rubles ($127 million). It paid an additional 34.9 billion rubles ($449 million) to sellers in compensation for their losses.
1/ Ukraine's campaign against Russian shipping is claimed to have hit 159 vessels in only 12 days. Numerous vessels have been crippled, knocking out a significant fraction of Russia's maritime exports. A Russian commentary describes how it's being done. ⬇️
2/ The Russian political analyst Igor Dimitriev assesses the tactics being used in the campaign, and how 'Operation “MoLoChKa' is affecting Russia's oil exports:
"They don't sink the vessels, they immobilise them."
3/ "Initially, they fired at the crew in the wheelhouse—the vessel would be blinded, but the engine would still work, and the crews learned to steer from the wheelhouse using a compass and telephone.
1/ Reports from Crimea say that Ukraine's drone blockade is causing prices to soar, electricity and water supplies are intermittent or absent, and mobile phone access is down. Shelves are empty and supplies aren't arriving for lack of fuel. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' summarises what a reader of his Telegram channel says about the situation in northern Crimea:
"There's no electricity at all, water supply is intermittent, mobile phone service is only at certain times."
3/ "There's nothing to even restore at the substations. They need to be rebuilt. As a result, northern Crimea is abandoned. It's only a matter of time before the rest of Crimea collapses.
1/ Israel has effectively reclassified crocodiles as livestock to facilitate a plan to dig moats filled with crocodiles around prisons housing Palestinian detainees. It's a pet project of the far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir. ⬇️
2/ The plan emerged in December 2025, apparently inspired by the notorious 'Alligator Alcatraz' detention centre in Florida (which is now closed). Prison officials have toured a crocodile farm in northern Israel which has been tipped as a possible supplier of crocodiles.
3/ The Israel Prison Service reportedly envisages digging moats around prisons and filling them with crocodiles. An IPS report claims that it would "significantly reduce ongoing security costs while also creating a strong deterrent against escape attempts by security prisoners."
1/ Russia's fuel crisis is causing gas stations to go out of business en masse. At least 150 have been put up for sale, including some belonging to major distributors, in a further sign of how the fuel crisis caused by Ukrainian drone strikes is impacting daily life in Russia. ⬇️
2/ Adverts offering gas stations for sale across Russia have been appearing on marketplaces, commercial real estate websites, and corporate resources, for prices of between 1 and 150 million rubles. An entire chain of 13 gas stations in Ufa is being offered for 350 million.
3/ National chains such as Gazprom and Lukoil are also offering stations for sale. However, the great majority of those currently on offer are independently owned. Around 60% of Russia's 27,700 gas stations are independently owned, with the rest belonging to large oil companies.