Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian control. Ukraine, naturally, wants it back. But what does history show about the challenges of reconquering it? In a series of threads, I'll look at the lessons of past wars.
2/ Crimea's fascinating military history has been of interest to me for many years – I travelled there in the early 2000s to study its old battlefields, so some of this will be drawn from personal recollections and notes.
3/ Let's review Crimea's physical geography. It's a roughly diamond-shaped peninsula, about 320 km (200 mi) east to west by about 200 km (120 mi) north to south. It's mostly flat, apart from the Crimean (or Yayla) Mountains in the far south, which are up to 1,500m (5000 ft) high.
4/ Crimea borders the Black Sea on its west and south sides, and the Sea of Azov in the east. It's separated from Russia by the narrow Kerch Strait, across which Russia has built Europe's longest road and railway bridge to link it to the Russian mainland.
5/ The peninsula's climate is almost subtropical in the far south, but in the north and centre it's mostly arid, as a 2018 vegetation map highlights. Agriculture is dependent on an irrigation canal that runs from the Dnipro river in the Kherson region.
6/ Crimea is separated from the Ukrainian mainland by the Syvash, an area of salt lagoons and marshes which connects to the Sea of Azov via a narrow strait. It's also known as the Putrid or Rotten Sea for its pungent smell in the summer. (This image shows its *natural* colours.)
7/ The Syvash covers around 2,500 km² (965 mi²) and is up to 35 km (21 mi) wide, but is very shallow – only about 3 m (10 ft) deep at maximum. In some places and at the right times, it can be forded on foot. This is militarily significant, as we'll see.
8/ There are only three narrow places along the entire 100 km (62 mi) long northern flank of Crimea where the peninsula is connected to the Ukrainian mainland. This is why Crimea has often been called a "natural fortress", and makes it a difficult place to invade.
All three of these have been used to invade Crimea, as we'll see in later threads in this series.
10/ For completeness we should mention the Kerch Strait as an entry point, as that's also of military importance. It's only 3.1 km (1.9 mi) wide at its narrowest. As well as the bridge, it's also crossed by ferries from Port Krym to the Chushka Spit on the Russian side.
11/ The Arabat Spit is a 112 km (70 mi) long sand spit – the longest in the world – which is only 270m (885 ft) wide at its narrowest point. It's low and exposed, relies on two bridges to connect it to the Ukrainian mainland and only connects to Crimea at its far southern end.
12/ There is no proper road along the spit, only a sandy track, although Russia has suggested that it might create a new road to improve Crimea's connection to the Ukrainian mainland. Currently, though, it would be difficult for an army to pass along it.
13/ The Chonhar Peninsula is a narrow wedge of land extending south from the Ukrainian mainland into the Syvash, 20 km (12 mi) west of the Arabat Spit. Two road bridges and one railway bridge at its tip carry transport routes from Melitipol in Ukraine across the Syvash.
14/ The Perekop Isthmus is the only unbridged link between Crimea and the Ukrainian mainland. It's only 9 km (5.5 mi) wide at its narrowest point and is of vital military and economic importance. The road, railway line and canal from Kherson to Crimea all come through here.
15/ There are a few small towns on the isthmus. Perekop (pictured below) itself is technically the oldest – a town has existed there since ancient Greek times. Armyansk was founded by Armenian merchants to trade with the Tatars who formerly ruled Crimea.
16/ To the south, Krasnoperekopsk, literally "Red Perekop", is a Soviet town built to house workers at a nearby bromine factory. The village of Ishun a short way further south is also of military significance for its location near three lakes – Krasne, Kyatske and Kyrleutske.
17/ While there have been battles on the Chonhar Peninsula and Arabat Spit, the Perekop Isthmus has been recognised for millennia as the gateway to Crimea. A line of fortifications has existed across the isthmus for at least 2,500 years, and has repeatedly been fought over.
18/ The ancient Greek name for Perekop, Taphros, means 'dug-out place'. It likely reflected the presence of a ditch across the isthmus at this point. The ditch is still there – it's clearly visible from space – and was fortified further between the 15th and 20th centuries.
19/ The fortification, known variously as the Perekop Wall, Turkish Wall or Tatar Ditch, is up to 45m (150 ft) wide and was originally up to 20m (65 ft) deep. It was anchored at the Perekop end by the now ruined Or-Kapi fortress, from which Perekop takes its name.
20/ The fort was originally built by the Tatar Crimean Khanate in the 15th and 16th centuries to defend Crimea from the Mongol-descended Golden Horde. After the Horde's final defeat, the Tatars launched raids into the north to capture Slavs for the Ottoman slave trade.
21/ Not surprisingly, this caused conflict with the Cossacks who lived along the Dnipro. This brings us to the invasion of Crimea in 1675 by the Cossack Ivan Sirko, which will be the subject of my next thread in this series. /end
1/ Russia faces increasing difficulties in its war in Ukraine, comments a Russian warblogger, including a build-up of Ukrainian offensive capabilities, a military system that weeds out "energetic, proactive people", and the likely loss of Trump's assistance after the midterms. ⬇️
2/ 'Voenkor Kotenok' writes that a new sense of realism is setting in among the 'turbo-patriots' who promote the Russian government's talking points on TV:
"Our TV show 'stars' are accustomed to convincing viewers that the enemy in Ukraine is almost defeated."
3/ "But by the beginning of the fifth year of the Special Military Operation, such enthusiastic utterances as "We'll just raise an eyebrow!" or "We'll crush you in three days" are no longer heard on the idiot box. The talkers haven't dried up, but they've reformed themselves.
1/ It's very hard to win a war with a strategy that is built on bullshit. This was one of the key lessons of World War II, thanks to the approach taken by Adolf Hitler, who launched the war in Europe. Here are some of the lessons from Hitler's Great European Bullshit War. ⬇️
2/ Harry Frankfurt's famous essay "On Bullshit" draws a crucial distinction that is useful to consider here. A liar knows the truth and deliberately inverts it. A bullshitter is entirely indifferent to truth – what matters is the effect produced and the audience managed.
3/ It mustn't be forgotten that Hitler's rise to power was based on bullshit. His Dolchstoßlegende — the stab-in-the-back myth, blaming Germany's WWI defeat on Jews and socialists rather than military failure – was entirely invented, an early example of the Big Lie technique.
1/ Denmark was reportedly preparing for full-scale war with the US over Greenland in January, with military support from France, Germany, and Nordic nations. Elite troops and F-35 jets with live ammunition were sent, and runways were to be blown up to prevent an invasion. ⬇️
2/ The Danish public broadcaster DR reports that officials in Denmark, France and Germany say that Donald Trump's threats to seize Greenland were taken so seriously that wide-ranging preparations were made to forcibly resist a US invasion of the Danish island.
3/ The Danish and French governments worked together to create a northern European coalition to defend Greenland from the United States. Under the cover of a pre-planned defence exercise, Greenland's defences were bolstered to raise the costs of any US invasion attempt.
1/ Pro-government Russians shouldn't be excessively disappointed by the Putin regime's repressive behaviour in recent months, says drone manufacturer Alexey Chadayev. He argues that that's how it's always been in Russia and nobody should expect any different. ⬇️
2/ Chadayev is the Director General of Russia's Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre (NPC Ushkuynik). He comments on recent complaints by previously pro-government commentators about the blocking of Telegram and the Internet shutdowns in Moscow and St Petersburg:
3/ "On the topic of 'disillusioned patriots' (I'm not talking about weathervane lawyers, in case it's unclear, but about the threat of 'loss of motivation' among government supporters, a topic that has been much discussed by various commentators in recent days).
1/ While the world's eyes are elsewhere, the long-running water crisis in Donetsk is continuing. An account from Russian warblogger Dmitry Steshin highlights how residents of what had been one of Ukraine's most developed cities are living now. ⬇️
2/ Since 2022, much of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been experiencing a severe water shortage. Cities have faced water rationing, while outlying towns and villages have often had no water at all.
3/ The root cause of this is a combination of war damage to the canal that provided pre-war Donetsk with water, the source of which is in Ukrainian-held territory near Kramatorsk, and decrepit infrastructure which has gone unmaintained due to corruption.
1/ Powerful interests in Russia are milking the war in Ukraine for profit and power, complains a Russian drone developer and blogger. He argues that the interests are indifferent to the loss of Russian lives and are ripping off the state defence procurement system. ⬇️
2/ 'UAV Developer' writes on Telegram: "You see, they couldn't care less about our victory."
3/ "They—a collective group of people in power, one of the towers [factions]—understand that the name of the Lord Special Military Operation can still be used to cover up any nonsense, and to call opponents foreign agents and enemies of the people.