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Mar 29 17 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Adani Wilmar Ltd.l Analysis!🇮🇳

A Detailed Thread 🧵⬇️
#investing #StocksToBuy
(1/16)

About:

Adani Wilmar is a joint venture between the Adani Group which was incorporated in 1999.

They have a retail reach of 1.6 million outlets and over 50 manufacturing locations. One in every three households consumes an Adani Wilmar product.
(2/16)

• Sector Overview

FMCG industry is the 4th largest sector in the Indian economy. Inflationary pressures saw companies having to take a hit on margins, however, experts advise that the worst of over.
(3/16)

• Sector Outlook

The Indian vegetable oil market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14.30% between 2023-2028 to reach 57.22 MMT by 2027.

Digitisation and increasing demand for ready-to-cook food is expected to help the industry grow exponentially.
(4/16)

• Company’s business

Adani Wilmar is one of the fastest growing packaged food company in India. Their largest refinery in India at Mundra has a capacity of approximately 5,000 TPD.

They are the largest exporter of castor oil and largest importer of crude oil.
(5/16)
• About the segments

Adani Wilmar has their presence in the following segments:

•Edible Oil
•Food & FMCG
•Industry Essentials
(6/16)

• Q3 Numbers

Revenue up from ₹13,410 Cr in Q2 to ₹14,714 Cr in Q3

OPM up from 2% to 4%

NPAT up from 62Cr to 277Cr

EPS up from ₹0.48 to ₹2.13
(7/16)

• Key highlights:

For 9M ended, 62% of volumes came from edible oil, 16% from Food & FMCG and 22% from Industry Essential

Volume contribution from food grew from 13% last year, to 16% this year

Recently acquired Kohinoor, which is now a 100Cr+ brand
(8/16)

73% revenues come from branded segment

9M consolidated volume grew by 13%

Strong demand in Q3 due to festivities and weddings

Alternate sales channels saw a YoY growth of 32% in Q3 and 26% in 9M

Mustard oil volumes grew 50% YoY in Q3

Focus on SRM, Suji, Rawa & Maida
(9/16)

Received good traction from marketing activities for our new ready-to-cook products

In the last 12-18 months they have extended their rural distribution which has increased consumption.

In urban areas, their direct reach has increased and market share has improved
(10/16)

• Key Strengths

India’s largest Oleo Chemicals complex with close to 800 tons per day of Oleo Chemicals capacity

In the Castor segment, they are the market leader with 32% market share

On MAT December 2022 basis, wheat flour and rice industry grew by 4% and 6%
(11/16)

Number 1 player in edible oil, number 2 player in wheat flour and number 3 player in basmati rice

No risk of down-trading since they have a diversified portfolio of brands

Number 1 player in Mustard oil category
(12/16)

Plan to use their oil distribution network to increase penetration of Food & FMCG

7/23 plants have solar energy and continue to have installations over the years for all plants

9 plants have been installed with zero liquid discharge helping with water conservation
(13/16)

• Weakness

₹3,000 Cr of short-term borrowing

ROCP industry for edible oil contracted by 1% between December 2021 & December 2022

Flattish EBITDA

PAT de-grew by 14%

Rising interest rates causing a hit on interest cost
(14/16)

Industry Essentials got impacted because of the price volatility in raw materials

Their wholly owned subsidiary in Bangladesh; BEOL suffered a loss of ₹47 Cr in Q3

Rice export slowed due to new extra tax of 20% (export duty)
(15/16)

• Numbers and Ratios

Market Cap: ₹50,447 Cr.
Stock P/E: 68.8
RoCE: 20%
RoE: 15.5%
PEG: 2.37
Price to Sales: 0.89
Int Coverage: 2.57
NPM: 1.88%
D/E: 0.40

• Shareholding Pattern

Promoter: 87.94%
FII: 1.57%
DII: 0.14%
Public: 10.35%
(16/16)

Conclusion:

Future plans for Adani Wilmar are looking positive. However even after positive numbers in Q3, the company’s share prices is down 30% in the last 3 months.

The stock will remain under pressure until the Hindenburg report storm settles.

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