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A thread of reflections on today's documents as I and the rest of #energytwitter pour through them. /1
The first is on heat decarbonisation, where the headline is that Government will extend the Boiler Upgrade Scheme until 2028. No details on how it'll be paid for though. But it presents a puzzle. /2
The BUS was meant to be a stopgap until the Government's market mechanism starts in 2024. This compels boiler suppliers to provide a certain percentage of their sales as heat pumps, effectively forcing them to cover heat pump costs to get consumers over the line. /3
The Government, unheralded, has consulted on this Clean Heat Market Mechanism today too, setting targets in line with its 600k heat pumps/year by 2028 ambition. /4
This means that the BUS is now a de facto subsidy for boiler manufacturers. Amazing that DESNZ didn't mention that. /5
Not being done with heat - the trajectory implied by the CHMM consultation indicates a de facto ban on new gas boilers by 2032. Chart below extrapolates the trajectory in the consultation until it hits the current annual boiler sales of 1.8M/year. /6 
GOOD GRIEF. The Government has slipped out a commitment to full electrification of heat in the Heat Pump Accelerator document. It is very difficult to foresee any role for 100% hydrogen heat if no boilers can be installed, which a 1.9m target implies. /7
My very rough maths indicates that this is equivalent to a reduction in usage of the UK's gas network of between 13-20% by 2035. /8
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