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@emmpeethree1
Mar 31 • 5 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
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NBF - Revisiting Liquids (Wet gas) Peers
-revisit the relative bias across our liquids peers:
$KEC, $KEL, $NVA, $PIPE, $POU (~250 mboe/
w/ $9-10b market cap
-recent management updates
~75% of CF in group from liquids (9% CFPS per $5 WTIΔ, 4% per $0.25 HH Δ)
1/x 🧵
#OOTT #COM
-Gas Resource Peer Comparables (Strip Pricing)
-2023e CFPS Sensitivities to +US$5/bbl WTI
-2023e WTI Breakeven Pricing (Strip Pricing) Including Hedging
-2024e/2023e Multiple Compression (Strip Pricing)
2/x
$KEL (OP & $7.50 TP)
$NVA (SP & $16 TP)
$KEC (OP & $25 TP)
$POU (OP & $37.50 TP)
3/x
$PIPE (SP & $4 TP)
-Montney Operator Map
-Breakeven Analysis (Ex-Hedging)
4/x
-Gas Pricing Sensitivity Analysis
-Montney Tear Sheet & Operator Map
4/x

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More from @emmpeethree1

emmpeethree Profile picture
Apr 1
DJ - Shaken, not stirred - 4Q22 review, and 2023/2024 estimates

Charts/tables edition 1/10 🧵

First up: 4Q22 Quarterly CFPS comparison

$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR
#COM #OOTT Image
2/x
 2023-2024 capex
$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR Image
3/x
 EV/DACF (2024E) vs FCF yield (2024E) at strip prices (March 17)

$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR Image
Read 10 tweets
emmpeethree Profile picture
Mar 31
DJ - Shaken, not stirred—4Q22 review
-pullback a buying opportunity 1/x 🧵
Top picks:
$SU integrated
$TOU large cap gas
$ERF mid cap oil
$AAV mid cap gas
$SDE wet gas
$FRU royalty

$ARX.TO $CNQ $CVE $CPG $PEY.TO $PNE $TPZ $TVE $VET.TO $WCP $ATH $CR $HWX $NVA $IMO $MEG
#OOTT #COM
2/x
 1. Cash flow continues to moderate but still provides robust returns
2. Staying on budget in 2023
3. Unbridled growth no more
4. Balance sheets are no longer a major issue for most companies
5. Is returning 100% of FCF the right number, or is it overkill?
3/x
 6. Base dividends have mostly reached a ceiling
7. The lion’s share of discretionary FCF will continue being deployed through share buybacks
8. Recycle ratios remain healthy on the back of strong commodity prices amid rising FD&A costs
Read 4 tweets
emmpeethree Profile picture
Mar 30
TD - Exploring Full-cycle Costs & Margins of Canadian E&Ps
-Which Companies Have the Lowest Full-cycle Costs?
gas $PEY.TO $AAV, oil $CPG $WCP
-Highest margins?
$PEY (cash cost), $SDE (F&D cost & tax pools), & $CPG (realized price & tax pools) then $ARX.TO
1/x 🧵
#COM #OOTT
2/x
 2023E Full-cycle Cost – PDP F&D + Cash Expenses (ex. Hedging) at Strip

and

Full-cycle Cash Costs Relative to Commodity Mix
3/x
 Full-cycle Cash Flow Margins (at Strip)

and

Full-cycle Cash Flow Margin Relative to Production Mix (at Strip)
Read 4 tweets
emmpeethree Profile picture
Mar 27
NBF - 2022's top Canadian wells by cumulative BOE and top AVG BOE/d production for Bakken, Cardium, Charlie Lake, Clearwater, Duvernay, Mississippian, Montney and Viking plays 🧵

$CPG still dominates the Bakken north of the 49th

#COM #OOTT Image
Cardium

Led by $PEY.TO, Orlen, $CNQ, $SDE, $CVE, $WCP

Amazing diversity between gassy and liquidy! Image
Charlie Lake

$TOU $TVE $CNQ $WCP $KEL

quite the range from gassy to liquidy again! Image
Read 8 tweets
emmpeethree Profile picture
Jan 18
NBF - Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels - 13th Annual Energy Conference: Continuing Momentum

Summaries on: $AAV $BIR $CPG $HWX $KEC $PSK $SGY $TVE.TO $TPZ $VET.TO $WCP

Key themes:
-Inflation, Efficiencies and Inventory
1/14🧵
#COM #OOTT
Key Themes (cont.)
-Complementing Inventory; Organically and M&A
-Emphasis for Return of Capital Remains
-Differentiation and Multiple Expansion?
2/x
Advantage Energy $AAV ; Outperform & $15.00/sh
3/x
Read 14 tweets
emmpeethree Profile picture
Jan 15
Peyto Exploration's next monthly dividend will be 11c and $1.32/year or a 9.8% yield. I've seen comparisons to $GXE.TO & $CJ.TO div, concerns on sustainability and concerns due to recent AECO/HH price drop. This report from TD shows it is sustainable.
1/x
 #COM #OOTT $PEY $PEY.TO
Netbacks and production rowing y/y
2/x
-Currently trading @~2/3 of NAV
-EV/DACF trading near eight year low
-2P Reserve Life Index (RLI) of 23.5 years based on 105k boe/d, 2022 exit production (before addition of two acquisitions made in 2022)
3/x
Read 15 tweets

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