Thread by @iMusing

the first Speers metric for the night is 'a more normal Liberal margin'.

the first Karvelas misspeak for teh night is saying there was a huge swing to Alan Tudge. She meant to Mary Doyle. Easy mistake to make when only one of the two is actually standing tonight.

"people can actually name her" - political journalist on Mary Doyle after calling the swing to Mary Doyle last year "Alan Tudge".

why are voters not blaming Labor for cost of living struggles asks Speers. There should be “grumpiness” with the Labor government says Karvelas.

This is political journalists trying to neutralise the fact that their massive economic management lies are not landing with voters.

also incredibly obvious that the Tudge disgrace and scandals have all been rolled up and wrapped into the word controversial. He resigned after self-assessing that his #RobodebtRC testimony made being an MP completely untenable.

“being a woman of colour” and “joining the Liberal Party” is no indication of structural change. It really is not. Zero race and feminist literacy in this coverage, as usual.

Green: Labor are ahead in this small booth.
Speers: it is still early days.
Karvelas: ooo fingernails.

Remember the press gallery told us the NSW election was too close to call and Green called the NSW election around 8pm on election day.

they are STILL bitching and moaning that voters are not PUNISHING Albanese for a thing that pre-dates the Albanese government.

Labor ahead in a booth: furrowed brows, screaming cost of living from the rooftops, “early days, fingernails”.

Liberals ahead in a booth: big smiles, “might have Liberals breathing a little easier”.

weird how cost of living is a matter of deep concern for people with the absolute privilege luxury prosperity security of holding title to stolen Aboriginal lands but not for people reliant on centrelink income.

lmao Green cautiously not calling it but for Labor at 7:35pm

looks like the Liberal Party has lost so lets cross to a Liberal Party politician. In this way the Liberal Party narrative is given priority no matter who is in government or in opposition, who is winning or who is losing.

our ABC panel are looking very downcast. These are not good results, says Green. Not good for the Liberal Party, echoes Speers. “A win is looking less and less likely” says Speers, of a result that looks more and more likely to be a win for the Labor candidate.

a DISASTROUS night says Speers lmao I don’t know about that my mate.

they KNEW it would be tight says Karvelas of a probably not-tight result so “they” knew nothing I guess.

Green says he would normally call it but is waiting for the pre-poll and postals because the consequences of this by-election are such a big deal. Is it tho? The federal government has a majority already.

“families living with wives and kids” oh dear. Get it together mate.

lmaooo democracy mate please. Regular reminder that what is bad for the Liberal Party is bad for a very tiny and extremely wealthy and dominant minority. Nobody else. The semblance of democracy will muddle along.

the ABC panel are still pushing their partisan blame for cost of living barrow. Reminds me of the GFC.

Green is cautiously calling it by a logic of elimination.

EXTRAORDINARY that voters who were represented in the federal parliament by a white male who threatened impoverished single mums with imprisonment decided to change their vote. Why on earth would people reject that shit. Must have been a scare campaign amirite.

bewildered* by press gallery journalists who were primed to declare Morrison a master campaigner when the Liberals lost Eden Monaro in 2020 are asking what was different and exceptional about Aston in 2023.

asked about Liberal Party “negativity” towards a Yes vote in the constitutional recognition referendum, the Liberal Party rep on ABC spouts “detail”.

this is a terrible result, says Anthony Green. A terrible result. A terrible result. Terrible, disastrous, says Speers. All sorts of bad news, he says. They are talking about Labor winning a seat lmao the telling.

the whole negative Dutton campaign narrative also has me quite baffled* when there is not a skerrick of evidence that anyone (other than journos, factional allies and the wife) have anything positive to say about his entire time in federal parliament nor as a Queensland cop.

gallery journos, Hume, Liberal Party strategists, they really thought *woman of colour* candidate would neutralise local issues and their bigotry. Wrong. They promote “culture wars” hate while being race and feminist illiterate. NFI including on trans rights being human rights.

it is not about demographic change. It is not about the pandemic. It is about the Coalition-corporate media cartel dominating spread of “economic management” lies to their audiences/voters/the public is exposed as nasty and self-serving misinformation.

Aston has been painted red end to end, says Green. There will be a lot of thinking about this result, says Green. And it will be all about the Liberal Party so as to maintain the illusion that coalition politicians have anything to offer voters, or democracy, says me.

gloomy Liberal Party in Aston says Speers. Let’s talk about Mary Doyle, he says, for the first time in the campaign. Why yes, Karvelas was reading all about Mary Doyle today. Today! So much tell.

a “too close to call” by-election swing is looking like 8% so the polling company-press gallery cartel covering themselves in glory for their conflict journalism-media business model once again tonight.

lmao Dutton was slated to only appear if the losing Liberal candidate won but he is right here. It has been tuff for the Liberal Party, he says. They will grow stronger from todays experience, he lies. Tuff. Hard work. Faultless. Proud. Tuff very tuff.

big call to put poor old Dutton on stage to tell the faithful he is going to rebuild the rump that is the Liberal Party.

our democracy needs a strong opposition - DRINK.

lmao apparently Mirabella and Howard failed in yet another political campaign.

anyway bless the losing Liberal Party candidate recites a bunch of *civility* sound grabs so gallery journalists can obscure Liberal Party failures by waxing lyrical about democracy and respectability politick.

oh please. Dutton was there against will. Possibly for the first time in his life he felt coerced into being somewhere and doing something - but only in service to his own ambition.

Doyle is up. There is a problem with the ABC line lol she is being introduced by DPM Marles. The crowd are ecstatic (obs).

DPM Marles opens with acknowledgement of country and restates federal Labor government commitment to the Uluṟu Statement from the Heart, constitutional recognition, and the referendum.

Doyle: hi, I am Mary Doyle and I guess I will be the next member for Aston (applause).

we really need more progressive women in parliament and you just got one - Aston MP Mary Doyle. Twould be nice. Might hold you to that, Maz.

it was extraordinary it was relaxed it was warm - gallery journalists reporting on the Labor MP for Aston for the first time in the entire campaign, because she has won.

“we have understandably talked a lot about the Liberal Party” - Speers opening the usual historical revisionism that press gallery journalists use to try and cover the tracks of their systemic failures.

followed by a live cross to Peter Dutton making the same excuses for the Liberal Party that press gallery journalists make, for the Liberal Party. He says “Victoria has been a very difficult market” for the Liberal Party. I wonder why. So random hey Pete.

anyway. What is happening here is that Dutton wants to signal to his factional enemies not to roll him and the ABC are giving him a publicly funded platform to speak to his own fucking colleagues.

so “these progressives are keeping the Liberals out” says Speers. Yes, David. Slow clap. People to the left of your nazi adjacent faves are voting for someone else.

a Liberal Party operative just told ABC TV with a completely straight face that “the teals have the advantage of incumbency” and nobody challenged this obviously garbage take.

anyway Kos Samaras says “it is going to get worse for the Liberal Party” and Speers repeats “its going to get worse” with a face like a dropped pie and flicks to someone claiming that grotesque Liberal Party bigotry is “nature” and demographics.

we wrap with Karvelas insisting that Labor Party folks did not express confidence of winning Aston to Pat Karvelas (lmao I wonder why) and David Speers asking how to fix the Liberal Party on the implied and false assumption that fixing the Liberal Party matters (it does not).