Kristi Raik Profile picture
Apr 2 8 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Exciting parliamentary #elections in #Finland today, coming 4 weeks after elections in #Estonia. Being a keen observer of both countries, some comparative remarks.🧶
1. Strong women played a prominent role in both campaigns. Both PMs @kajakallas and @MarinSanna have been international stars with a similar security agenda: Ukraine must win, Russia must leave all territories of 🇺🇦. Marin had an important role in taking Finland swiftly to NATO.
2. However, if they were in the same country, Kallas and Marin would hardly form a coalition together due to differences over economic policy – just as it would/will be difficult in Finland to form a coalition between right-wing National Coalition and Marin’s Social Democrats.
3. Left vs right has been the dominant dividing line in 🇫🇮 elections and likely to determine the next government, with public economy and debt at the centre of heated debates. In 🇪🇪 the dominant and heated division was between liberal vs conservative values
and hence coalition talks are going on among liberal parties, incl. right (Reform Party), left (Social Democrats) and centre (Eesti 200) of the spectrum.
4. 🇫🇮 remains a more consensus-oriented society than 🇪🇪, especially on security. In Estonia, even in the context of war in Europe, the main opposition party fiercely challenged the government on security and defence. In Finland, security got little attention in election debates.
5. One can say that Estonia has no proper left-wing and Finland no proper right-wing. Just different degrees of right-wing in 🇪🇪 and degrees of left-wing, all defending the welfare state in 🇫🇮. But
the difference between the two countries in this regard has diminished during the past decades. Both Estonian and Finnish politics has moved more to the centre, with new radical right being radical along liberal-conservative rather than traditional right-left axis. END

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More from @KristiRaik

Mar 13
Sharp piece on the troubles of European defence by @maxbergmann @SophiaBesch
Estonia's initiative can be a game-changer:
"if the EU can jointly procure ammunition, there is no reason why it can’t take similar steps to jointly acquire artillery or..." 1/4
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-eu…
The obstacles to closer EU defence cooperation are deeper though than tension between the interests of US and European defence industries. 2/4
Countries next to Russia are facing an existential threat, knowing that their European allies are neither materially nor mentally ready to counter it for many years to come. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
I’ve been talking to dozens of western journalists and diplomats over the past months on the upcoming elections in 🇪🇪. The most common question I get (in many variations): is the Russian-speaking population a threat to Estonia's security? Some reflections.🧵
No, the main threat to 🇪🇪 security is not our Russian-speaking population. It is Russia.
The possibility of Russia interfering in any country having a Russian minority has to be taken seriously.
The Russian security doctrine claims the right to interfere in external countries in order to defend Russians. This was one of the main reasons Russia presented for starting war against Ukraine.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 16
Some thoughts on Ukraine’s victory/Russia’s defeat. During the first weeks after 24 Feb invasion, the dominant view among Western experts was that Ukraine was doomed to lose. Russia was a major power, far bigger and stronger than Ukraine – supposedly. They were wrong.🧶
Where are we now?🇺🇦victory is increasingly seen as possible, and yet many Western experts think that Ukraine liberating all of its territories is too much to expect and would be too dangerous. Perhaps they are wrong again. We should not turn this into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
As long as Russia occupies even a small part of Ukraine’s territory, there can be no enduring peace. The West cannot legitimize it without destroying the principle that borders must not be changed by force – a principle it is thus far defending, however imperfectly.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 12
There’s an increasing amount of articles in Western media speculating about Russia’s collapse and disintegration. Having contributed to this trend myself, I think some points are worth clarifying.
First, collapse and disintegration are not necessarily the same thing. I’ve written about collapse, meaning collapse of the current regime and (perhaps) system, but this does not need to lead to Russia disintegrating into pieces – although it may.
Second, post-imperial Russia to some (incl. myself) means Russia that no longer seeks to dominate its neighbours. To others it means also disintegration of the Russian Federation, with colonised minorities establishing their own states. Again, one may lead to the other - or not.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 23, 2022
End of 2022, 10 months of Russia’s cruel war against Ukraine.
Thinking about what has changed for Europe, I’d highlight that Ukraine has become one of the great nations of Europe. Never before has it been regarded as such.🧶
This will profoundly change the (geo)political map and balance of power in Europe for decades to come, no matter when and how exactly the war will end. Ukraine will prevail and will be shaping tomorrow’s Europe.
Ukraine’s future and its justified expectations towards the EU and NATO are creating a lot of concern in Western Europe. I wish Ukraine would be seen more as a source of inspiration, hope and strength. Europe has a strong interest in Ukraine’s victory, speedy reconstruction and
Read 7 tweets
Nov 27, 2022
Thanks for the thread @LianaFix
Let me add some reflections of mine.
I used to have respect for Merkel, though I was critical of some of her policies (energy, esp Nordstream; excessive belief in talking to Putin) and failures to deliver (German military, support to 🇺🇦)
Just imagine if Putin had annexed Crimea while Schröder was in power – there would have been no EU sanctions, no common European/transatlantic condemnation.
Remember how different the European and German debate was in 2014,
the Russian narrative on Crimea and Donbass was creating lots of confusion and was given by many the benefit of the doubt. Merkel pulled Germany and EU together, also with US, to condemn Russia's actions and impose sanctions - for sure, in Eastern member states we expected more
Read 7 tweets

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