This week marks the kick-off for the #OBFA_TRANSFORM project, a new @dfg_public Emmy Noether research group to investigate the political economy of financing politically desired large-scale transformations
In the next six years, we will use the monetary architecture framework to investigate the role of off-balance-sheet fiscal agencies (OBFAs) in war finance, reconstruction finance, and the Green Transition
We will start with historical case studies of war finance & reconstruction finance in the 20th century
🔎 How was it possible to steer the monetary architectures at the time towards a politically desired purpose? 🔍
👉 We expect that OBFAs were crucial in this respect
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OBFAs played a pivotal role in financing military expenditure in North America & Europe throughout the 20th century
Setting up OBFAs not only enhanced credit money creation at an unprecedented scale but also transformed countries' monetary architectures for good
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OBFAs were commonly used to finance economic reconstruction after wars and major crises. We will look at the Great Depression period and the post-WWII era.
Some OBFAs were phased out, others remain part of countries' monetary architectures until today
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Then we apply our historical insights to the Green Transition—today’s politically desired large-scale transformation of capital stock to reach net-zero
🚨 How to steer our privatized & globalized monetary architecture towards this goal is presently an open question
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The Emmy Noether group will theorize on how OBFAs help govern monetary architectures beyond conventional understandings of monetary and fiscal policy
We also investigate if & how this technique is compatible with legitimate democratic governance
In the policy-oriented part, we will develop concrete proposals for how OBFAs can be used to support the financing of the Green Transition
We will communicate our framework & findings with an interactive online tool for visualizing interlocking balance sheets
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The project will be conducted at Global Climate Forum, Berlin with me as principal investigator, Armin Haas as senior researcher & @agutersandu as senior associate researcher
We'll open positions for PhDs & student assistants, and can bring in project affiliates
Stay tuned!
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We argue that OBFAs like the RRF have emerged since the Eurocrisis to mitigate 4 rules of "neoliberal" fiscal governance in the Eurozone:
– keeping treasury budgets balanced
– reducing public indebtedness
– prohibiting monetary financing
- avoiding mutual treasury bailouts
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OBFAs & treasuries form a Eurozone fiscal ecosystem, here shown as a web of interlocking balance sheets 🕸️
At EU level, it includes OBFAs such as EIF, EBRD & the new RRF. Nationally, it comprises eg development banks (KfW, BPI, CDP, etc) or national deposit insurance schemes
We built a macro-financial model of interlocking balance sheets
It shows the global financial architecture with the US monetary jurisdiction at apex & 3-layered periphery
International hierarchy results from mechanism to access emergency USD liquidity from @federalreserve
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The international monetary system is shaped by payment flows btw private actors. In today's configuration, we call it 'Offshore USD System' (cf bit.ly/3jthPpo) as it is based on using & creating USD-denominated credit money instruments ‘offshore’, ie outside the US
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Core of GEGI Study (@GDPC_BU) is a macro-financial model of interlocking balance sheets. It depicts the interconnections of the US and the Eurozone 'monetary jurisdictions'
The study is organized around explaining the theory of the model & its content
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I make four conceptual choices:
a) Portray Eurozone architecture as web of interlocking balance sheets. That’s the core idea of Critical Macro-Finance & Money View
Today’s IMS is “Offshore US-Dollar System”, composed of “monetary areas”. It is global & hierarchical. The USD monetary area is in apex. Monetary areas with unlimited USD swap lines are 1st layer periphery. More layers to follow below, here BRICS
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Core features of Offshore USD System: offshore creation of key currencies (esp USD @i_aldasoro), shadow money creation in main areas (@danielagabor@morganricks)
We have developed a visual conceptual framework to go beyond triple coincidence @StefanAvdjiev @HyungSongShin