Thread by @falsel_net

Not quite sure what to make out of all this.
Just updated available- and reported-data..

Deaths /mio /day Early March = 0.04 Cases/100k/day Early Feb + 0.02 % XBB.1.5* Latelyreported - 0.03 % Vaxx'd + 0.2 %BoostedBivalent - 1.1 Blue

acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc…

https://twitter.com/falsel_net/status/1637791886889943041

Data would imply that vax conferred durable protection. Caveat small data sample. And, reporting standards may vary across selected states. Still, I wouldn't expect XBB.1.5* to be more mortal, if population transmission were to be reasonably contained.

➡️frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…

Population mortality from XBB.1.5* could roughly equal 2.500 to 3.500 deaths per week in the USA, which coincidentally be similar to the proxy excess-over-prepandemic-lower-quartiles during week 6, 2023, mostly pertaining to people aged 65 - 85.

➡️mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

re. cov-spectrum.org/explore/United…
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

Observational regression analysis*, now updated with %XBB.1.5 prevalence at the end of March and the most recently CDC reported %vaxxed and %BoostedBivalent.
cov-spectrum.org/explore/United…
*acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc…

The proportion XBB.1.5 in USA has peaked. Cross-sectional, observational analysis would now suggest it is quite healthy to contain #SARSCoV2, rather than repeatedly spiking your immune system through infection or injection.

Data: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…

CFR Omicron XBB* : ~ 0,9%.
IFR 2020 #SARSCoV2: ~1%.

https://twitter.com/falsel_net/status/1266966277584826368

Given a downward seasonal trend of viral load, it is to be expected #Covid19 mortality will not significantly rise, unless more virulent variants arrive.

Tabel of observed and modelled data:

Ps. Objectively striving for #zeroCovid would reduce the background 'noise', i.e. nuisance of death from Covid19 complications and would render the multi-variate model highly significant.
acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc…

@threadreaderapp please unroll