Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 Profile picture
Apr 4, 2023 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Financial Conditions ease, led by higher stock prices
Goldman: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to +2.6% (qoq ar),

reflecting better-than-expected consumption and construction data
Economic Surprises continue to be decent. This will change on Good Friday! #NFP
Are we in a recession? Mfg data says so.
Goldman's Twitter Sentiment jumps into positive territory.
US real GDP seen at +1% this year. Ho Hum.

Goldman sees +6% in China.. is that enough to help $SLX steel stocks? I say so.
seekingalpha.com/article/459215…
Following the emergence of banking stresses, deposits at US banks declined...
internet searches for withdrawal related words have declined, suggesting bank deposit outflows have diminished

Crisis averted?
Goldman: European banks are in a healthy position from a liquidity perspective
Credit Crunch ahead for SMB?
Small and medium-sized banks account for ~55% of total loans
a 45-50 ISM Mfg is pretty bullish for stocks. @SoberLook
dailyshotbrief.com
Tech shares are trading at a substantial premium to the S&P 500.
The Eurozone: Core inflation continues to surge.
Weak natural gas prices have been pressuring coal.

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More from @MikeZaccardi

May 31, 2023
private payroll growth remains robust, while the unemployment rate has fallen to low levels.

Job openings in the economy also remain relatively high relative to pre-pandemic levels Image
Job-to-job (j2j) flows are slowing Image
BofA: We see signs that the pay raise people receive when they change jobs is moderating Image
Read 5 tweets
May 30, 2023
Some Banks Worry That Deposit Betas and Deposit Outflows Have Become More Unpredictable and Could Be Higher This Cycle Image
Duration by Type of Bank Loan Image
Goldman sees payroll growth 100k or more now through 2024. UR peaking at 3.6% Image
Read 4 tweets
May 30, 2023
Russell 2000 stocks comprise just 3% of multi-cap core portfolios, half of the weight vs. a decade ago Image
Small vs. large cap relative performance cycles have typically lasted about a decade

let's do a little technical analysis on this @awealthofcs Image
Small Caps has outperformed other size segments historically Image
Read 7 tweets
May 24, 2023
Goldman US Consumer Dashboard: May 2023: Still a Source of Strength Image
"We Expect that Real Spending Will Grow by 2% in 2023" Image
The Unemployment Rate Has Fallen to a 53-Year Low and Workers Are Still Benefiting From Favorable Job-Finding Prospects Due to a Tight Labor Market Image
Read 9 tweets
May 23, 2023
2011 debt crisis non-parallel:

Stock - bond allocations in 2011 were ~30ppt higher than today Image
Inflation expectations remain anchored Image
Reminder: As time horizons increase, the percentage of negative returns has dropped Image
Read 5 tweets
May 22, 2023
The West’s economic growth slipped into negative territory at the end of 2022 Image
The housing market in the West has been the weakest in the United States so far Image
The West appears to have had a positive bounce in spending at the start of 2023 Image
Read 5 tweets

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