Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NFP

Most recents (24)

Hello Monday!

Post #opex
Post #NFP

With #PMIs and 3 Fed speakers beginning with Brainard on Tuesday and Bullard 🦅 on Thursday, today may be the quietest day of the week.

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia started the week 💪↗️

$NIKK 27736 +0.25%
$SSEC 3283 +0.95%
$TWII 17626 -0.4% 🔻
$HSI 22509 +2.15% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2758 +0.65%
$IDX 7116 +0.55%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7514 +0.25%

India 💪↗️
$BSE 60408 +1.9%
Good move to cover your 🩳
Europe trading ↔️ at the open

$DAX 14397 -0.35%
$FTSE 7554 +0.2%
$CAC 6677 -0.1%
$AEX 732 +0.6%
$IBEX 25127 -0.15%
$MIB 25132 -0.1%
$SMI 12288 +0.9% ⬅️
$MOEX 2773 +0.5% 🪆

$VSTOXX 28.50
Read 11 tweets
Hello Thursday and the last day of March 2022!

Month to Date
$NATGAS +27.35%
$BRENT +13.6%
$COPPER +6.65%
$CORN +6.85%
$CRB +12.0%

$BTC +9.4%
$GOLD +2.0%
$USD +1.2%

$NIKK +5.65%
$SPX +5.2%
$COMPQ +5.0%
$DAX +1.0%
$SSEC +5.65%

$TLT -5.65%
$SHY -1.4%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed March with a whimper ↘️

$NIKK 27821 -0.75%
$SSEC 3252 -0.45%
$TWII 17693 -0.25%
$HSI 21997 -1.05%
$KOSPI 2558 +0.4% ⬅️
$IDX 7071 +0.25% ⬅️

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7500 -0.2%

India ↔️
$BSE 58664 -0.05%
Europe ↘️ for a 2nd day

$DAX 14590 -0.1%
$FTSE 7569 -0.15%
$CAC 6724 -0.25%
$AEX 731 -0.45%
$IBEX 8532 -0.2%
$MIB 25273 -0.1%
$SMI 12253 +0.1%
$MOEX 2640 +5.0% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 28.10 🔺
Read 11 tweets
Fed's Evans: Jobs numbers have been quite good for some time. Labor market is in a very solid position. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding Russia and Ukraine.
#Fed $USD #NFP
#Fed $USD #NFP
Fed's Evans: Need to be close enough to neutral by the end of the year so that we can deal adequately with inflation.
#Fed $USD
Read 5 tweets
US stock indices futures trim some losses after NFP report, S&P 500 futures last down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%.
Spot #gold rises some $2 after #NFP report to trade at $1,945.75/oz. $XAU
US Dollar Index pares some losses to trade at 98.54. $USD $DXY
Read 4 tweets
U.S. Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: 678K, [Est. 400K, Prev. 481K]
U.S. Feb. Unemployment Rate: 3.8%, [Est. 3.9%, Prev. 4.0%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
U.S. Feb. nonfarm payrolls change highest since July 2021, unemployment rate lowest since Feb 2020.
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction.
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
Read 4 tweets
#BLS #NFP Distracted Jobs Day to you.
Hard to pay attention with what is going on abroad.
Fed's move is known, and constrained by market reaction to the above.
A glance will be had at wage and income growth.
Headline number will likely underperform consensus.
But no one will care
Here we go:
Non farm payrolls up by 678,000
Private sector 654,000
Unemployment 3.8%
Boy was I wrong. More to come.
Hourly wages were flat though!
OK, there was a BIG catch-up in all the low-wage/low-hours jobs we had been missing for months. Over 360,000 jobs restored in retail, leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare and administrative and waste alone. This is why aggregate hourly wage growth was only a penny.>>
Read 10 tweets
Precision in market timing & proper position sizing is a 90% determinant for the success of my leveraged trades!

There’s simply no other ways around this 🚀

#SnP500 #VIX
#NQ1 A highly probable roadmap for the coming weeks; but if this looks too obvious to you, my word of caution is that it'll be 20x the opposite in real-time especially when dealing with your open leveraged positions in the lower time-frames...

#PositionSizing Image
#NQ1 roadmap updated; #NotThereYet
#Nasdaq100 #QQQ Image
Read 44 tweets
U.S. Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: 199K, [Est. 400K, Prev. 249K]
U.S. Dec. Unemployment Rate: 3.9%, [Est. 4.1%, Prev. 4.2%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
US Treasury yields fall after NFP; 10-year yield last at 1.7266%.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for Oct was revised up by 102,000 to +648,000, and the change for Nov was revised up by 39,000 to +249,000. With these revisions, employment in Oct and Nov combined is 141,000 higher than previously reported.
#US #NFP #Nonfarm
Read 8 tweets
Good #BLS #NFP Jobs Day.
Below are my pre-report observations on what to look for.
Stay tuned for quick analysis and, thereafter, the @jobqualityindex data related to today's report.
Non-farms payrolls up 199,000
Private sector up 211,000 (loss of government workers)
Unemployment rate falls to 3.9% as labor force increases by only 168,000. LFPR flat at 61.9.
Stay tuned for additional analysis, but this is miserable data.
Upward revisions for two prior months totaled 141,000. Not bad, but nowhere near enough to offset the bad news today.
Leisure and hospitality hiring DID stall in December, up only 41,000 vs. 211,000 in November. Retail jobs fell (at Christmas!) by 13,300 (perhaps seasonal adj?)
Read 9 tweets
Hello Friday

Week to date

$BTC -10.12%
$GOLD -2.15%
$EUR -0.69%
$USD +0.77%

$CAC +1.35%
$SPX -1.47%
$KOSPI -1.92%
$COMPQ -3.61%

$WHEAT -3.21%
$COPPER -2.44%
$NATGAS +2.2%
$SOYB +3.58%
$GASO +3.58%
$WTIC +5.65%
$LUMBER +6.66%
$CRB +1.88%

$TNX +14.62%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ for the week

$NIKK 28479 -0.05%
$SSEC 3580 -0.2%
$TWII 18170 -1.1%

$HSI 23493 +1.8%
$KOSPI 2955 +1.2%
$IDX 59578 +0.7%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7453 +1.3%

India ↔️
$BSE 50577 -0.05%
Europe opens ↔️

$IBEX 8741 -0.55%
$DAX 16000 -0.3%
$CAC 7241 -0.1%
$SMI 12787 -0.05%

$FTSE 7458 +0.1%
$AEX 788 +0.25%
$MOEX 3277 +0.5% 🪆
$MIB 27832 +0.66%

$VSTOXX 20.10 🔺
Read 12 tweets
Weekly Global Macro Review 10/07/21


@hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissant’s colorful description of “endless gamma squeezes” oh so reminiscent of 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999!

Let’s dig into the macro 🧮 for the week

A 🕊 #FOMC on Wednesday and a 💪🏼 #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market ↗️

WTF, you say?

Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 ↘️ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained 🥞 at 105

2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps

Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX ↘️ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support
Read 19 tweets
#NFP Expecting a strong number today. The headline will not be impacted by the loss of government education jobs we saw in September and I expect private sector to show far more strength with the ending of supplemented unemployment benefits now fully filtered through the data.
#NFP As a result of the above, I see the number as likely to exceed expectations of 450K to 475K, with a decent shot of well-exceeding that range. But the test week was the week ending October 17th, and activity has increased measurably after that with improving COVID data.
#NonFarmPayrolls come in at 531,000 in October as the Unemployment Rate registers 4.6%. Now let's look at the details underneath the headlines as we await the @jobqualityindex data.
Read 14 tweets
Hello Friday!


$NIKK +3.12%
$COMPQ +2.85%
$DAX +2.17%
$SPX +1.62%
$KOSPI +0.42%

$CRB -1.79%
$NATGAS +5.34%
$COPPER -1.09%
$CORN -1.58%
$WTIC -5.70%

$TLT -0.27%
$IEF +0.46%
$SHY +0.13%

$USD +0.23%
$GOLD +0.54%

Let's dig into the wee hour 🧮!
Asia closed with a ↘️ bias

$NIKK 29612 -0.6%
$SSEC 3492 -1.0%
$TWII 17297 +1.3% 🔺
$KOSPI 2069 -0.45%
$IDX 6582 -0.05%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7457 +0.4%

India ↔️
$BSE 60068 unch/closed
Europe opened with a ↗️ bias

$DAX 16021 -0.05%
$FTSE 7308 +0.4%
$CAC 7006 +0.25%
$AEX 822 +0.2%
$IBEX 9026 -0.15%
$MIB 27575 +0.2%
$SMI 12458 +0.45%
$MOEX 4170 -0.35% 🪆
Read 11 tweets

Global Macro Review - October 2021


Crude 🚀 along with domestic equities as vol ↘️

The 10/2 curve ↗️ then ↘️ sharply with short-end 🚀

Grains ↗️ with 🌽 &🌾💪🏼

AUD 🦘🔺 and JPY 🈹 🔻

Let’s dig in to the 🧮!

Commodities led the #inflation trade higher with the $CRB +3.83% and a new cycle high.

🛢 and ⛽️ 🚀 to new cycle highs while Natty 🪓 at 6.47

$WTIC 83.57 +11.38%
$BRENT 84.38 +7.46%
$GASO 2.37 +8.22%
$NATGAS 5.43 -7.52%

Chart: $WTIC +11.38% for October is up 72% in 2021
Read 17 tweets
Good Jobs Day everyone. Today we see if the slow pace of reduction in continuing (not initial) extended and supplemented unemployment claims is again reflected in the #BLS data for June. Estimates for job growth of ~600K private and ~700K total sound reasonable, but its dicey.
If we get a big jump in jobs, we should see a slump in wages as most of the jobs seeking worker are low-wage/low-hours jobs. And they are not likely the type to draw in people off the bench from either the unemployed OR those who have left the labor force:…
#BLS Non-farm payrolls rise by 850,000
The U-3 unemployment rate remains at 5.9%
Read 15 tweets
#US Employment: #NFP vs #ADP

- NFP has surprised (un-revised actual vs expectation) in same direction as ADP only 51% times (14 yr data)
- Since Covid, Feb'20, NFP & ADP have surprised 67% times in opposite direction
- Median ADP & NFP Surprise ~zero with Covid fat tail

1/3 ImageImage
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS
- both private & govt non-farm payrolls
- Establishment survey (CES) & Household survey

- Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a services provider
- only private non-farm payrolls
- survey of ADP's clients: ~20% of all US employment
Some inherent correlation b/w ADP & NFP as NFP expectations may get adjusted by ADP's Actual release two days before

BLS CES Establishment Survey Methodology:…

ADP Methodology…
Read 3 tweets
ICYMI: Nice work by @TheAusInstitute highlighting an increasing lack of #transparency in the Federal Budget with greater resorting to NFP "not for publication" references to keep info secret. This #secrecy cancer just keeps growing. #auspol #righttoknow…
. @TheAusInstitute highlights a few NFP examples including the costs of managing an abandoned oil rig formerly owned by Woodside; money for the controversial Inland Rail project and expenditure relating to Australia’s Export Finance and Insurance Corporation. All are secret.
There may be valid reasons for some budget details to be kept confidential, but NFP is resorted to with ever greater frequency. It would be a good thing if @ANAO_Australia were to conduct an audit of NFP decisions. But, surprise, surprise, the Auditor’s budget has been cut.
Read 8 tweets
...though basically unchanged in 3 1/2 years

And, those good ole #FederalReserve policies again mean the monthly cost of an average #NewHome (approximated here) is back where it was 15 years ago...

#housing #QE
...while, as a proportion of the average weekly wage )as per #NFP), well - you can see for yourself:-

As we always say, there'll always be a scarcity of something real as long as there are few such constraints on #money & #credit creation.

#mortgage #RE
Read 5 tweets
#NFP என்றால் என்ன??

கடலில் மீனவர்கள் இனி
கால்வைக்க முடியாது.
வருகிறது மோடியின் புதிய NFP சட்டம்.,

தேசியக்கடல் மீன்வள ஒழுங்குமுறை மற்றும் மேலாண்மை வரைவு மசோதாவை மத்திய அரசு தாக்கல் செய்யவுள்ளதாக தகவல் வெளியாகியுள்ளது.

அரசின் இத்தகைய மோசமான திட்டத்திற்கு மீனவர்கள் கடும் +
எதிர்ப்பு தெரிவித்தனர்.

இதுகுறித்து தமிழ்நாடு மீனவர் சங்க தலைவர் லோகநாதன் கூறுகையில்"தேசிய கடல் மீன்வள சட்டமசோதா மூலம் மீனவர்களின் வாழ்வாதாரம் பாதிக்கப்படும். இந்தசட்டத்தை அமல்படுத்தினால் மீனவர்களிடமிருந்து கடல் பறிக்கப்பட்டு கடலில்மீனவர்கள் கால்கூட வைக்கமுடியாத நிலைமைஏற்படும்.+
அதாவது இந்தச்சட்டத்தின்படி, கட்டுமரங்களை‘கப்பல் பதிவுச்சட்டத்தின் கீழ்’பதிவு செய்யவேண்டும் எனக் கூறுகிறது. கப்பல் பதிவுச் சட்டத்தின் கீழ்பதிவு செய்யவேண்டும் என்றால் கப்பலில் இருக்கும் மாலுமி இருக்கவேண்டும்.

டிரைவிங் லைசென்ஸ் எடுக்கவேண்டும்;தொழில்நுட்ப வல்லுநர்கள் இருக்கவேண்டும்+
Read 10 tweets
Bueno amig@s, vamos cerrando máquinas aprovechando para compartir un hilo, explicando una operación de última hora en el #NQ_F (contrato mini de junio y para desearos a tod@s un feliz (y confinado) fin de semana.
😷 👇
Entrada buscando un giro tipo extremo por debajo del Value Area. Día tipo Balance.
Nota: se publican las #NFP de los EEUU en condiciones especiales por el #COVID19 y sin la volatilidad esperada.
1 -> 1er aviso: pullback
2 -> 2º aviso: vol. de parada
3 -> Entrada: absorción
Tras varios intentos por frenar el precio, entramos en la 3ª viendo la absorción de las ventas en forma de clúster. Confirmado el giro, buscamos una segunda entrada a favor del movimiento.
Read 15 tweets
MARCH 12th - keep that date in mind this morning. We will have lots to talk about regarding the #BLS employment situation report at 8:30am EDT. But remember that the test date for "jobs day" data is the 12th of the month being reported. And March 12 was before the lock downs.>>
>>Consequently, today's Non-farm Payroll data won't come anywhere near reflecting the reality of the #COVID19 pandemic impact.
Nevertheless, will be back at 8:30 and expect to see a material, if early, loss of front line low-wage/low-hours - see why, here:
#BLS #NFP Payrolls decline by 701,000 with the unemployment rate at 4.4. This is just the tip of the iceberg as the reference date for the data is the week ending March 13th, before the social and economic lock downs. But really bad.>>
Read 14 tweets
Over the last 12 months, @isabellasaund and I have had the privilege of working with @socprogress to develop Australia's first Social Progress Index.… @CSIsocialimpact
@isabellasaund @socprogress @CSIsocialimpact Why measure #socialprogress? We live in a country that prioritises economic growth and #GDP over pretty much everything else. The logic goes that if economic progress increases, so should social progress.
@isabellasaund @socprogress @CSIsocialimpact But we know that's not the case - we know that the mining boom, while contributing to 28 years of unprecedented economic growth, has also had ongoing impacts on communities and the environment where mining companies have now left.
Read 25 tweets
So ... the large discrepancy between weak ADP and the huge upside in #NFP for November caused some consternation last Friday. For example, @JulianMI2 pointed out that
But I also noticed this comment - Thanksgiving timing effect "could be at least 100k" - attributed to @EconguyRosie via @carlquintanilla
Could timing of Thanksgiving have such a large impact on payroll numbers? Haven't looked into hiring rates just before and after Thanksgiving, but 2019 was the first year since 2013 and 2014 where Thanksgiving occurred during a last full workweek ending the month.
Read 8 tweets
#BLS Today's job's report will be the last prior to the launch of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) on November 14th, which will thereafter be updated and released on each "jobs day." #JQI is a collaborative of @Cornell, @cpa_tradereform, @UMKC and @GISP_Tweets,>>
>and tracks shifts in job quality related to relative levels of weekly income (wages times hours) on a real time basis from month to month. The JQI reveals is three decades of astonishing job quality decline, reflecting a substantial increase in the number of>>
> production and non-supervisory jobs that are below the mean level weekly incomes of all such jobs. In 1990, 52.7% of those jobs fell below the mean – but since then, 63% of all net new job formation has been lower wage/lower hours. >>
Read 10 tweets

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