Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NFP
Most recents (24)
Financial Conditions ease, led by higher stock prices 
Goldman: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to +2.6% (qoq ar),
reflecting better-than-expected consumption and construction data
reflecting better-than-expected consumption and construction data
Economic Surprises continue to be decent. This will change on Good Friday! #NFP
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻💰
Macro Review 03/10/23
🧵 1/8
The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.
Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock
Macro Review 03/10/23
🧵 1/8
The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.
Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock
2a/8
After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”
The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️
Chart: MOVE index 140.06
After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”
The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️
Chart: MOVE index 140.06
2b/8
After two days of Powell chatting with Congress, the UST 2Y accelerated to 5.05%, a multi-year high, before crashing hard on the SVB news.
Chart: $UST2Y with -1.6 STD move in 2 days
After two days of Powell chatting with Congress, the UST 2Y accelerated to 5.05%, a multi-year high, before crashing hard on the SVB news.
Chart: $UST2Y with -1.6 STD move in 2 days
Hello Friday and the week to date!
$USD +0.78%
$GBP -1.0%
$GOLD -1.08%
$TLT +0.18%
$TNX -0.98%
$HYG -1.73%
$NIKK +0.78%
$DAX +0.35%
$SSEC -2.94%
$SPX -3.16%
$COPPER +0.69%
$WTIC -4.97%
$SILVER -5.08%
#bitcoin -8.91%
$NATGAS -15.59%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$USD +0.78%
$GBP -1.0%
$GOLD -1.08%
$TLT +0.18%
$TNX -0.98%
$HYG -1.73%
$NIKK +0.78%
$DAX +0.35%
$SSEC -2.94%
$SPX -3.16%
$COPPER +0.69%
$WTIC -4.97%
$SILVER -5.08%
#bitcoin -8.91%
$NATGAS -15.59%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
🇺🇸 futures ↘️ ahead of #NFP
$ES 3905 -0.3%
$NQ 11883 unch
$RTY 1819 -0.5%
$VIX 22.73
$SPX range = 3860 - 4030 ↔️
$VIX range = 17.74 - 24.32 ↔️
$ES 3905 -0.3%
$NQ 11883 unch
$RTY 1819 -0.5%
$VIX 22.73
$SPX range = 3860 - 4030 ↔️
$VIX range = 17.74 - 24.32 ↔️
Hydrocarbons ↘️
$WTIC 75.19 -0.7%
$BRENT 81.19 -0.5%
$GASO 2.60 -0.2%
$NATGAS 2.52 -0.85%
$OVX 34.86 🔺
$WTIC range = 74.13 - 81.02 ♉️
$WTIC 75.19 -0.7%
$BRENT 81.19 -0.5%
$GASO 2.60 -0.2%
$NATGAS 2.52 -0.85%
$OVX 34.86 🔺
$WTIC range = 74.13 - 81.02 ♉️
Hello Thursday!
"With inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2% and with the labor market remaining extremely tight… ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate …to return inflation to 2%…"
~J. Powell
Let's dig into the 🧮!
"With inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2% and with the labor market remaining extremely tight… ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate …to return inflation to 2%…"
~J. Powell
Let's dig into the 🧮!
In Asia, $NIKK 🇯🇵↗️ ♉️
$NIKK 8623 +0.65%
$SSEC 3276 -0.2%
$TWII 15771 -0.3%
$HSI 19926 -0.65%
$KOSPI 2414 -0.55%
$IDX 6780 +0.35%
Australia ↔️
$ASX 7311 +0.05%
India ↘️
$BSE 59837 -0.85%
$NIKK 8623 +0.65%
$SSEC 3276 -0.2%
$TWII 15771 -0.3%
$HSI 19926 -0.65%
$KOSPI 2414 -0.55%
$IDX 6780 +0.35%
Australia ↔️
$ASX 7311 +0.05%
India ↘️
$BSE 59837 -0.85%
Europe under pressure ↘️
$DAX 15571 -0.4%
$FTSE 7872 -0.75%
$CAC 7282 -0.6%
$AEX 747 -0.8%
$IBEX 9402 -0.7%
$MIB 27591 -1.15%
$SMI 10928 -0.9%
$MOEX 2281 -0.65%
$VSTOXX 18.50
$DAX range = 15217 - 15813 ♉️
$DAX 15571 -0.4%
$FTSE 7872 -0.75%
$CAC 7282 -0.6%
$AEX 747 -0.8%
$IBEX 9402 -0.7%
$MIB 27591 -1.15%
$SMI 10928 -0.9%
$MOEX 2281 -0.65%
$VSTOXX 18.50
$DAX range = 15217 - 15813 ♉️
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @steve_sedgwick for the chat on #SquawkBox this morning!
Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
1/x
Short and sweet today, but I hope it was of some interest. The notes I put together ahead of time will follow in this thread...
1/x
First of all, it's #ValentinesDay and SOMEONE is going to get massacred today when the #CPI is released, so naturally:-
2/x
2/x
Roses are red, violets are blue,
JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.
#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?
3/x
JayPow doesn't know
And neither do you.
#inflation's effects are not as universal as they were, but does that mean we can all now relax?
3/x
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
02/05/2023
1/9
The #macro market has been hyper focused on growth and inflation dynamics
We got a slew of data showing inflation under control.
Yet one data point on Friday raised havoc with my portfolio.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Macro Review 🧵
02/05/2023
1/9
The #macro market has been hyper focused on growth and inflation dynamics
We got a slew of data showing inflation under control.
Yet one data point on Friday raised havoc with my portfolio.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2a/9
The Employment Cost Index #ECI came out on Tuesday, just prior to the #FOMC meeting
#ECI +1% Q/Q represented a deceleration in employment costs
#Inflation 🔻
The Employment Cost Index #ECI came out on Tuesday, just prior to the #FOMC meeting
#ECI +1% Q/Q represented a deceleration in employment costs
#Inflation 🔻
2b/9
Home prices were also out on Tuesday.
At +8.2% y/y, housing costs continue to decline on an ROC basis
#Inflation 🔻
Home prices were also out on Tuesday.
At +8.2% y/y, housing costs continue to decline on an ROC basis
#Inflation 🔻
Hello Friday and the week to date
$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%
$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%
$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%
#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%
$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%
$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%
#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%
Let's dig into the market 🧮!
#ADP private payrolls rose to +230,000 in December.
The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher
Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact.
The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher
Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact.
Asia finished the week mostly ↗️
$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7110 +0.65%
India ↘️
$BSE 59900 -0.75%
$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7110 +0.65%
India ↘️
$BSE 59900 -0.75%
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
#CPI Preview
1/10
One 🤡 calls it #macrotourism, but #CPI and #FOMC policy response are the single most important issues to macro investors today.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
#CPI Preview
1/10
One 🤡 calls it #macrotourism, but #CPI and #FOMC policy response are the single most important issues to macro investors today.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10
At his Brookings Institute speech at the end of November, Powell broke core #inflation into 3 components:
a) goods inflation
b) housing services inflation
c) services, ex-housing = wages
At his Brookings Institute speech at the end of November, Powell broke core #inflation into 3 components:
a) goods inflation
b) housing services inflation
c) services, ex-housing = wages
2a/10
Goods inflation is clearly coming down along with inputs into that equation.
$COOPER +10.65% in November is nonetheless -13% YTD
Goods inflation is clearly coming down along with inputs into that equation.
$COOPER +10.65% in November is nonetheless -13% YTD
The #Fed #pivot talk has intensified lately.
Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...
Should the #Fed #pivot and why?
Let's demystify all this.
A thread.
1/25
Sth possibly breaking in the #UK, European financial system ( $CS, $DB...), #RBA pivoting by hiking less than expected, higher financial risk in the #US...
Should the #Fed #pivot and why?
Let's demystify all this.
A thread.
1/25
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
1/7 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/14/2022
A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, ➕ the July services #PMI ↗️ ➕ #NFP ↗️, kept the 🔥 burning on risk assets - enough to lure the ♉️
Is this a new ♉️ market or the end of the 🐻 rally?
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
1/7 🧵
Global Macro Review 08/14/2022
A big decline in $CPI to +8.5% y/y, ➕ the July services #PMI ↗️ ➕ #NFP ↗️, kept the 🔥 burning on risk assets - enough to lure the ♉️
Is this a new ♉️ market or the end of the 🐻 rally?
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/7
Equity volatility ↘️ across market and 🐻 Trend (T)
$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps
Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM 🆕 ♉️
Equity volatility ↘️ across market and 🐻 Trend (T)
$VX 19.53 -1.62 bps
$VXN 25.18 -1.95 bps
$RVX 24.23 -1.07 bps
$VSTOXX 21.21 -1.64 bps
$VXEEM 19.45 -2.41 bps
Chart: $VXEEM lending support to $EEM 🆕 ♉️
3/7
US equity indices 🚀
$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)
Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
US equity indices 🚀
$SPX +3.25% (w) +6.35% (T) 🆕 ♉️
$COMPQ +3.1% (w) +10.55% (T)
$IWM +5.0% (w) +12.5% (T)
Chart: $IWM - small caps have retraced nearly 50% of the 6-mo decline
#BLS #NFP estimates for July hover around 270K, but recent estimates have proven dramatically unreliable to the downside.
At some point, the opposite will be the case.
With unemployment claims rising, let's see if this is the month?
At some point, the opposite will be the case.
With unemployment claims rising, let's see if this is the month?
NFP shock at +528,000 jobs created or restored.
Average hourly earnings up 0.5%.
This was NOT the month for a retrenchment, to say the least.
More to come....
Average hourly earnings up 0.5%.
This was NOT the month for a retrenchment, to say the least.
More to come....
Upward adjustments from prior months pretty much across the board. The labor force DECLINED (continuing prior pattern) by 63K and the unemployment rate falls to 3.5%.
The Fed's trajectory is clear at this point.
The Fed's trajectory is clear at this point.
Hello Monday!
Post #opex
Post #NFP
With #PMIs and 3 Fed speakers beginning with Brainard on Tuesday and Bullard 🦅 on Thursday, today may be the quietest day of the week.
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Post #opex
Post #NFP
With #PMIs and 3 Fed speakers beginning with Brainard on Tuesday and Bullard 🦅 on Thursday, today may be the quietest day of the week.
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia started the week 💪↗️
$NIKK 27736 +0.25%
$SSEC 3283 +0.95%
$TWII 17626 -0.4% 🔻
$HSI 22509 +2.15% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2758 +0.65%
$IDX 7116 +0.55%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7514 +0.25%
India 💪↗️
$BSE 60408 +1.9%
Good move to cover your 🩳
$NIKK 27736 +0.25%
$SSEC 3283 +0.95%
$TWII 17626 -0.4% 🔻
$HSI 22509 +2.15% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2758 +0.65%
$IDX 7116 +0.55%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7514 +0.25%
India 💪↗️
$BSE 60408 +1.9%
Good move to cover your 🩳
Europe trading ↔️ at the open
$DAX 14397 -0.35%
$FTSE 7554 +0.2%
$CAC 6677 -0.1%
$AEX 732 +0.6%
$IBEX 25127 -0.15%
$MIB 25132 -0.1%
$SMI 12288 +0.9% ⬅️
$MOEX 2773 +0.5% 🪆
$VSTOXX 28.50
$DAX 14397 -0.35%
$FTSE 7554 +0.2%
$CAC 6677 -0.1%
$AEX 732 +0.6%
$IBEX 25127 -0.15%
$MIB 25132 -0.1%
$SMI 12288 +0.9% ⬅️
$MOEX 2773 +0.5% 🪆
$VSTOXX 28.50
Hello Thursday and the last day of March 2022!
Month to Date
$NATGAS +27.35%
$BRENT +13.6%
$COPPER +6.65%
$CORN +6.85%
$CRB +12.0%
$BTC +9.4%
$GOLD +2.0%
$USD +1.2%
$NIKK +5.65%
$SPX +5.2%
$COMPQ +5.0%
$DAX +1.0%
$SSEC +5.65%
$TLT -5.65%
$SHY -1.4%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Month to Date
$NATGAS +27.35%
$BRENT +13.6%
$COPPER +6.65%
$CORN +6.85%
$CRB +12.0%
$BTC +9.4%
$GOLD +2.0%
$USD +1.2%
$NIKK +5.65%
$SPX +5.2%
$COMPQ +5.0%
$DAX +1.0%
$SSEC +5.65%
$TLT -5.65%
$SHY -1.4%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed March with a whimper ↘️
$NIKK 27821 -0.75%
$SSEC 3252 -0.45%
$TWII 17693 -0.25%
$HSI 21997 -1.05%
$KOSPI 2558 +0.4% ⬅️
$IDX 7071 +0.25% ⬅️
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7500 -0.2%
India ↔️
$BSE 58664 -0.05%
$NIKK 27821 -0.75%
$SSEC 3252 -0.45%
$TWII 17693 -0.25%
$HSI 21997 -1.05%
$KOSPI 2558 +0.4% ⬅️
$IDX 7071 +0.25% ⬅️
Australia ↘️
$ASX 7500 -0.2%
India ↔️
$BSE 58664 -0.05%
Europe ↘️ for a 2nd day
$DAX 14590 -0.1%
$FTSE 7569 -0.15%
$CAC 6724 -0.25%
$AEX 731 -0.45%
$IBEX 8532 -0.2%
$MIB 25273 -0.1%
$SMI 12253 +0.1%
$MOEX 2640 +5.0% ⬅️🪆
$VSTOXX 28.10 🔺
$DAX 14590 -0.1%
$FTSE 7569 -0.15%
$CAC 6724 -0.25%
$AEX 731 -0.45%
$IBEX 8532 -0.2%
$MIB 25273 -0.1%
$SMI 12253 +0.1%
$MOEX 2640 +5.0% ⬅️🪆
$VSTOXX 28.10 🔺
Fed's Evans: Jobs numbers have been quite good for some time. Labor market is in a very solid position. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding Russia and Ukraine.
#Fed $USD #NFP
#Fed $USD #NFP
FED'S EVANS: JOBS REPORT DOESN'T REALLY CHANGE ANYTHING THAT FED CHAIR POWELL IS POSITIONING FOR.
#Fed $USD #NFP
#Fed $USD #NFP
Fed's Evans: Need to be close enough to neutral by the end of the year so that we can deal adequately with inflation.
#Fed $USD
#Fed $USD
US stock indices futures trim some losses after NFP report, S&P 500 futures last down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%.
$USD $SPX $DJI $IXIC #NFP
$USD $SPX $DJI $IXIC #NFP
US Dollar Index pares some losses to trade at 98.54. $USD $DXY
U.S. Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: 678K, [Est. 400K, Prev. 481K]
U.S. Feb. Unemployment Rate: 3.8%, [Est. 3.9%, Prev. 4.0%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
U.S. Feb. Unemployment Rate: 3.8%, [Est. 3.9%, Prev. 4.0%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
U.S. Feb. nonfarm payrolls change highest since July 2021, unemployment rate lowest since Feb 2020.
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction.
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
#BLS #NFP Distracted Jobs Day to you.
Hard to pay attention with what is going on abroad.
Fed's move is known, and constrained by market reaction to the above.
A glance will be had at wage and income growth.
Headline number will likely underperform consensus.
But no one will care
Hard to pay attention with what is going on abroad.
Fed's move is known, and constrained by market reaction to the above.
A glance will be had at wage and income growth.
Headline number will likely underperform consensus.
But no one will care
Here we go:
Non farm payrolls up by 678,000
Private sector 654,000
Unemployment 3.8%
Boy was I wrong. More to come.
Hourly wages were flat though!
Non farm payrolls up by 678,000
Private sector 654,000
Unemployment 3.8%
Boy was I wrong. More to come.
Hourly wages were flat though!
OK, there was a BIG catch-up in all the low-wage/low-hours jobs we had been missing for months. Over 360,000 jobs restored in retail, leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare and administrative and waste alone. This is why aggregate hourly wage growth was only a penny.>>
U.S. Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls: 199K, [Est. 400K, Prev. 249K]
U.S. Dec. Unemployment Rate: 3.9%, [Est. 4.1%, Prev. 4.2%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
U.S. Dec. Unemployment Rate: 3.9%, [Est. 4.1%, Prev. 4.2%]
#US #NFP #Nonfarm #Unemployment
US Treasury yields fall after NFP; 10-year yield last at 1.7266%.
#US10Y $USD
#US10Y $USD
Good #BLS #NFP Jobs Day.
Below are my pre-report observations on what to look for.
Stay tuned for quick analysis and, thereafter, the @jobqualityindex data related to today's report.
Below are my pre-report observations on what to look for.
Stay tuned for quick analysis and, thereafter, the @jobqualityindex data related to today's report.
Non-farms payrolls up 199,000
Private sector up 211,000 (loss of government workers)
Unemployment rate falls to 3.9% as labor force increases by only 168,000. LFPR flat at 61.9.
Stay tuned for additional analysis, but this is miserable data.
Private sector up 211,000 (loss of government workers)
Unemployment rate falls to 3.9% as labor force increases by only 168,000. LFPR flat at 61.9.
Stay tuned for additional analysis, but this is miserable data.
Upward revisions for two prior months totaled 141,000. Not bad, but nowhere near enough to offset the bad news today.
Leisure and hospitality hiring DID stall in December, up only 41,000 vs. 211,000 in November. Retail jobs fell (at Christmas!) by 13,300 (perhaps seasonal adj?)
Leisure and hospitality hiring DID stall in December, up only 41,000 vs. 211,000 in November. Retail jobs fell (at Christmas!) by 13,300 (perhaps seasonal adj?)
Hello Friday
Week to date
$BTC -10.12%
$GOLD -2.15%
$EUR -0.69%
$USD +0.77%
$CAC +1.35%
$SPX -1.47%
$KOSPI -1.92%
$COMPQ -3.61%
$WHEAT -3.21%
$COPPER -2.44%
$NATGAS +2.2%
$SOYB +3.58%
$GASO +3.58%
$WTIC +5.65%
$LUMBER +6.66%
$CRB +1.88%
$TNX +14.62%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Week to date
$BTC -10.12%
$GOLD -2.15%
$EUR -0.69%
$USD +0.77%
$CAC +1.35%
$SPX -1.47%
$KOSPI -1.92%
$COMPQ -3.61%
$WHEAT -3.21%
$COPPER -2.44%
$NATGAS +2.2%
$SOYB +3.58%
$GASO +3.58%
$WTIC +5.65%
$LUMBER +6.66%
$CRB +1.88%
$TNX +14.62%
Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️ for the week
$NIKK 28479 -0.05%
$SSEC 3580 -0.2%
$TWII 18170 -1.1%
$HSI 23493 +1.8%
$KOSPI 2955 +1.2%
$IDX 59578 +0.7%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7453 +1.3%
India ↔️
$BSE 50577 -0.05%
$NIKK 28479 -0.05%
$SSEC 3580 -0.2%
$TWII 18170 -1.1%
$HSI 23493 +1.8%
$KOSPI 2955 +1.2%
$IDX 59578 +0.7%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7453 +1.3%
India ↔️
$BSE 50577 -0.05%
Europe opens ↔️
$IBEX 8741 -0.55%
$DAX 16000 -0.3%
$CAC 7241 -0.1%
$SMI 12787 -0.05%
$FTSE 7458 +0.1%
$AEX 788 +0.25%
$MOEX 3277 +0.5% 🪆
$MIB 27832 +0.66%
$VSTOXX 20.10 🔺
$IBEX 8741 -0.55%
$DAX 16000 -0.3%
$CAC 7241 -0.1%
$SMI 12787 -0.05%
$FTSE 7458 +0.1%
$AEX 788 +0.25%
$MOEX 3277 +0.5% 🪆
$MIB 27832 +0.66%
$VSTOXX 20.10 🔺
Weekly Global Macro Review 10/07/21
1/15
@hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissant’s colorful description of “endless gamma squeezes” oh so reminiscent of 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999!
Let’s dig into the macro 🧮 for the week
1/15
@hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissant’s colorful description of “endless gamma squeezes” oh so reminiscent of 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999!
Let’s dig into the macro 🧮 for the week
2/15
A 🕊 #FOMC on Wednesday and a 💪🏼 #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market ↗️
WTF, you say?
A 🕊 #FOMC on Wednesday and a 💪🏼 #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market ↗️
WTF, you say?
3/15
Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 ↘️ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained 🥞 at 105
2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps
Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX ↘️ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support
Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 ↘️ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained 🥞 at 105
2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps
Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX ↘️ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support
#NFP Expecting a strong number today. The headline will not be impacted by the loss of government education jobs we saw in September and I expect private sector to show far more strength with the ending of supplemented unemployment benefits now fully filtered through the data.
#NFP As a result of the above, I see the number as likely to exceed expectations of 450K to 475K, with a decent shot of well-exceeding that range. But the test week was the week ending October 17th, and activity has increased measurably after that with improving COVID data.
#NonFarmPayrolls come in at 531,000 in October as the Unemployment Rate registers 4.6%. Now let's look at the details underneath the headlines as we await the @jobqualityindex data.
Hello Friday!
W/MTD
$NIKK +3.12%
$COMPQ +2.85%
$DAX +2.17%
$SPX +1.62%
$KOSPI +0.42%
$CRB -1.79%
$NATGAS +5.34%
$COPPER -1.09%
$CORN -1.58%
$WTIC -5.70%
$TLT -0.27%
$IEF +0.46%
$SHY +0.13%
$USD +0.23%
$GOLD +0.54%
Let's dig into the wee hour 🧮!
W/MTD
$NIKK +3.12%
$COMPQ +2.85%
$DAX +2.17%
$SPX +1.62%
$KOSPI +0.42%
$CRB -1.79%
$NATGAS +5.34%
$COPPER -1.09%
$CORN -1.58%
$WTIC -5.70%
$TLT -0.27%
$IEF +0.46%
$SHY +0.13%
$USD +0.23%
$GOLD +0.54%
Let's dig into the wee hour 🧮!
Asia closed with a ↘️ bias
$NIKK 29612 -0.6%
$SSEC 3492 -1.0%
$TWII 17297 +1.3% 🔺
$KOSPI 2069 -0.45%
$IDX 6582 -0.05%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7457 +0.4%
India ↔️
$BSE 60068 unch/closed
$NIKK 29612 -0.6%
$SSEC 3492 -1.0%
$TWII 17297 +1.3% 🔺
$KOSPI 2069 -0.45%
$IDX 6582 -0.05%
Australia ↗️
$ASX 7457 +0.4%
India ↔️
$BSE 60068 unch/closed
Europe opened with a ↗️ bias
$DAX 16021 -0.05%
$FTSE 7308 +0.4%
$CAC 7006 +0.25%
$AEX 822 +0.2%
$IBEX 9026 -0.15%
$MIB 27575 +0.2%
$SMI 12458 +0.45%
$MOEX 4170 -0.35% 🪆
$DAX 16021 -0.05%
$FTSE 7308 +0.4%
$CAC 7006 +0.25%
$AEX 822 +0.2%
$IBEX 9026 -0.15%
$MIB 27575 +0.2%
$SMI 12458 +0.45%
$MOEX 4170 -0.35% 🪆
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - October 2021
1/15
Crude 🚀 along with domestic equities as vol ↘️
The 10/2 curve ↗️ then ↘️ sharply with short-end 🚀
Grains ↗️ with 🌽 &🌾💪🏼
AUD 🦘🔺 and JPY 🈹 🔻
Let’s dig in to the 🧮!
Global Macro Review - October 2021
1/15
Crude 🚀 along with domestic equities as vol ↘️
The 10/2 curve ↗️ then ↘️ sharply with short-end 🚀
Grains ↗️ with 🌽 &🌾💪🏼
AUD 🦘🔺 and JPY 🈹 🔻
Let’s dig in to the 🧮!
3/15
🛢 and ⛽️ 🚀 to new cycle highs while Natty 🪓 at 6.47
$WTIC 83.57 +11.38%
$BRENT 84.38 +7.46%
$GASO 2.37 +8.22%
$NATGAS 5.43 -7.52%
Chart: $WTIC +11.38% for October is up 72% in 2021
🛢 and ⛽️ 🚀 to new cycle highs while Natty 🪓 at 6.47
$WTIC 83.57 +11.38%
$BRENT 84.38 +7.46%
$GASO 2.37 +8.22%
$NATGAS 5.43 -7.52%
Chart: $WTIC +11.38% for October is up 72% in 2021
