Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
Apr 4 14 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Financial Conditions ease, led by higher stock prices
Goldman: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to +2.6% (qoq ar),

reflecting better-than-expected consumption and construction data
Economic Surprises continue to be decent. This will change on Good Friday! #NFP
Are we in a recession? Mfg data says so.
Goldman's Twitter Sentiment jumps into positive territory.
US real GDP seen at +1% this year. Ho Hum.

Goldman sees +6% in China.. is that enough to help $SLX steel stocks? I say so.
seekingalpha.com/article/459215…
Following the emergence of banking stresses, deposits at US banks declined...
internet searches for withdrawal related words have declined, suggesting bank deposit outflows have diminished

Crisis averted?
Goldman: European banks are in a healthy position from a liquidity perspective
Credit Crunch ahead for SMB?
Small and medium-sized banks account for ~55% of total loans
a 45-50 ISM Mfg is pretty bullish for stocks. @SoberLook
dailyshotbrief.com
Tech shares are trading at a substantial premium to the S&P 500.
The Eurozone: Core inflation continues to surge.
Weak natural gas prices have been pressuring coal.

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More from @MikeZaccardi

Apr 5
Corporate debt is near two-decade lows

while household balance sheets remain strong

Government debt, on the other hand, has doubled since 2002 and sits at 120% of GDP Image
16 recessionary bear markets in 150 years Image
U-rate peaks 4 months after the SPX low, on average Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 5
The Dallas Fed survey suggests ongoing tightening in credit standards Image
Only 37% of Active funds outperformed in March Image
The US snack food category grew 8.4% in 2022 to $150.6bn Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 5
The Spread Between Short-Term Interest Rates and Saving Deposit Rates Is Currently Very Large Image
Saving Deposit Rates Are Increasing in a Manner Consistent with Past Cycles Image
Each 10% Decline in Bank Profitability Reduces Lending by Around 2% According to Academic Studies Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
Goldman: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 260k in March (mom sa).

When the labor market is tight, job growth tends to normalize in March from a strong winter pace, and

Big Data employment indicators indeed decelerated in the month. Image
US equities have generally rallied in the months following the end of past Fed hiking cycles,

with the S&P 500 posting an average 3-month return of +8% and rising in 5 of 6 episodes since 1982. Image
Best sector post-final Fed hike? Financials.
Just like everyone is positioned for. Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 15
BofA: We revise core CPI inflation up a tenth in both 4Q 2023 and 2024 to 3.4% y/y and 2.4% Image
We expect core goods prices to fall this year while core services should moderate slowly -BofA Image
CPI core services ex rent and OER easing all too slowly Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 14
SPX: Percentage of stocks above 10-day MAs hit oversold
Suttmeier BofA charts.. Image
SPX: % of stocks above 50-day MAs not yet oversold Image
SPX: % stocks above 200-day MAs breaks lower Image
Read 7 tweets

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