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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT

@MikeZaccardi

Apr 4 • 14 tweets • 5 min read Twitter logo

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Financial Conditions ease, led by higher stock prices

Goldman: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate to +2.6% (qoq ar),

reflecting better-than-expected consumption and construction data

Economic Surprises continue to be decent. This will change on Good Friday! #NFP

Are we in a recession? Mfg data says so.

Goldman's Twitter Sentiment jumps into positive territory.

US real GDP seen at +1% this year. Ho Hum.

Goldman sees +6% in China.. is that enough to help $SLX steel stocks? I say so.
seekingalpha.com/article/459215…

Following the emergence of banking stresses, deposits at US banks declined...

internet searches for withdrawal related words have declined, suggesting bank deposit outflows have diminished

Crisis averted?

Goldman: European banks are in a healthy position from a liquidity perspective

Credit Crunch ahead for SMB?
Small and medium-sized banks account for ~55% of total loans

@SoberLook

a 45-50 ISM Mfg is pretty bullish for stocks. @SoberLook
dailyshotbrief.com

Tech shares are trading at a substantial premium to the S&P 500.

The Eurozone: Core inflation continues to surge.

Weak natural gas prices have been pressuring coal.

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More from @MikeZaccardi

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT

@MikeZaccardi

Apr 5

Corporate debt is near two-decade lows

while household balance sheets remain strong

Government debt, on the other hand, has doubled since 2002 and sits at 120% of GDP

16 recessionary bear markets in 150 years

U-rate peaks 4 months after the SPX low, on average

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT

@MikeZaccardi

Apr 5

The Dallas Fed survey suggests ongoing tightening in credit standards

Only 37% of Active funds outperformed in March

The US snack food category grew 8.4% in 2022 to $150.6bn

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT

@MikeZaccardi

Apr 5

The Spread Between Short-Term Interest Rates and Saving Deposit Rates Is Currently Very Large

Saving Deposit Rates Are Increasing in a Manner Consistent with Past Cycles

Each 10% Decline in Bank Profitability Reduces Lending by Around 2% According to Academic Studies

Read 6 tweets

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT

@MikeZaccardi

Apr 3

Goldman: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 260k in March (mom sa).

When the labor market is tight, job growth tends to normalize in March from a strong winter pace, and

Big Data employment indicators indeed decelerated in the month.

US equities have generally rallied in the months following the end of past Fed hiking cycles,

with the S&P 500 posting an average 3-month return of +8% and rising in 5 of 6 episodes since 1982.