New from me: I worked with @AGU_Eos, @theAGU + #AGUpubs to put together a plain-language, Q&A-style piece discussing our recent review paper on climate tipping elements!
Thanks to @AGU_Eos for inviting me to write this Editor's Vox article.
The @AGU_Eos editors posed great questions:
- What are tipping elements? Which ones did you review?
- What are challenges of studying tipping elements?
- What is a “tipping cascade”?
- Which tipping elements could start undergoing major changes soon?
- What Qs remain unanswered?
One thing I would emphasize is that climate impacts from tipping elements do not manifest abruptly overnight. Many tipping elements like permafrost soils or ice-sheets act overall on longer timescales of a century or more. Some can show shifts faster, over decades.
We also still have considerable ability to reduce the impacts associated with many tipping elements: "Future scenarios where society considerably limits and reduces greenhouse gas emissions will reduce climate risks assoc. w both tipping elements + their possible interactions."
"The possibility of tipping cascades is concerning + requires further study. However, most research suggests that continued human emissions influence tipping elements signif. more than the smaller climate feedbacks that tipping elements themselves are likely to participate in."
You can find the full-text version of our review paper here on the @theAGU Reviews of Geophysics website, available for open access:
Hopefully this can be an accessible, useful resource to share with students and the general public, and a nice starting point for readers before they dive into our more detailed review.
Imagine thinking nationalistic CCP narratives on Taiwan deserve deference or to be further normalized.
Angry netizens don't dictate Beijing policy. And behind rhetoric even hawkish 🇨🇳 policy cadres are bound by pragmatism. Deterrence makes cost of military recklessness clear
I've argued in numerous in-person conversations in the past week that I am not remotely worried that China will seek to assault or blockade Taiwan within yrs, or even this decade!
(For the record, I predicted correctly as of Dec 2021 that Russia would invade Ukraine.)
For the foreseeable future, China will not intentionally seek to settle the question of Taiwan's political status through military means, because the costs of such a choice are far too high and the benefits of (uncertain) success comparatively unclear and small.
"Mechanisms and impacts of Earth system tipping elements"
If you’ve ever been interested in climate tipping elements, check out this new review article from myself and co-authors in @theAGU Reviews of Geophysics.
“we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts + knowledge gaps associated w 10 notable Earth system components proposed to be tipping elements. We evaluate which tipping elements are approaching critical thresholds + whether shifts may manifest rapidly or over longer timescales.”
So Japan wants to co-burn green ammonia + hydrogen in existing coal + gas power plants.
By my calc replacing just 20% of coal burned annually in Japan w green ammonia would need ~80% of Australia's yearly electricity generation.
Co-burning NH3/H2 for power just doesn't scale!🧵
And this is the lower-bound electricity needed to replace just a fraction of coal burned for power in Japan!
Now add in co-burning of H2 for gas, more power-hungry (potentially significantly) blue H2 from CCS, fuel-cell cars, green H2/NH3 demand from Korea, Taiwan, Singapore...
All of these countries want to co-burn green hydrogen in some form in their power sectors, Korea + Japan have ambitious plans for hydrogen in transportation + industry on top of that, and all of these countries want to import said hydrogen + are looking to Australia/Indonesia...
Recent stories on anti-nuclear issues in Taiwan show Geiger readings on Lanyu Island, whose Indigenous ppl have long opposed an existing low-lvl nuclear waste site.
"radiation dose rate: 0.0372-0.0376 uSv/hr"
(This is very low. Everyday radiation dose in Japan is 0.05 uSv/hr.)
But data alone won't heal distrust + resentment.
- The facility was deceptively forced on the community decades ago in 1982.
- Residents worry the waste may not be a hazard now, but that could change in the future.
Six killed, 47 workers missing in a terrible coal mine accident in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within China, after the wall of the coal pit collapsed. Rescue efforts underway.
It took a long time to find the mine, scanning many coal open pits dotting the south mountains of Inner Mongolia, bordering the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.
Turns out it's 100km south of Alasha Ayimag (Alxa League) despite state reporting describing the mine as near that town.
Mine site geolocated based on the following tweet by @baasaltena:
I wonder which one of us gives off the air of being more outraged at the moment? 🤣
For the record, all I did was call his article "amusing" and say it "quite spectacularly jumps the shark". Never attacked his character, yet the dude with 282100 followers leaps to ad hominem.
In which the best Noah can do on short notice is to desperately pull up presumably what was one of the first (dated) Google results, red-faced at having written an article on coal in China that didn't even mention the words "steel" or "cement".