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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
Apr 13 • 23 tweets • 11 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
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1. Is SARS starting to unravel the west?

As IR scholar I analyze such questions. Where are we, where are we heading?

After vaccines or reinfections decreased acute phase death ratios (aCFR), most experts now think the “pandemic’s over”. They are wrong.

USA vs. Taiwan, 0 : 1 ☺️ ImageImage
2. I am no Russia expert. (1) Can someone tell us how former SU states, above all Moscow, managed to drop life expectancy to 69 yrs in 2021, before Putin’s war? Now it’s lower yet again, with many young men being lost. (2) Read this thread as background. Image
W Europe/Taiwan > China > US > Russia 👀 Image
3. Russia is back in Soviet LE territory.

This is no new insight. We just talk about it too little. Russians/experts, feel free to comment.

Less obvious the epidemiological link.

“Living with covid” means degrading healthcare also in the west. Russian humor can help with that! Image
4. US friends - yes we don’t even know what to say. You might have a contracting empire problem 🤨
5. I cannot guarantee that this wouldn’t happen in China, but highly doubt it.
6. If people care, they can easily find out what’s happening. Here my new favorite theory: we upgraded to « Vaccinated, Infected and Relaxed », putting the vir back into virology.

This is funny if you recall your high school Latin. ImageImage
7. You need no advanced Latin skills to continue our cheerful little investigation of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in different states and the international system.

Some basic math in this truth sandwich - teachable lessons aplenty. Image
8. To science up, follow @lajohnstondr for the getting old before/after rich journey.

China is getting old before getting rich.

By contrast, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong accumulated wealth to become rich first. <>More room to err. eastasiaforum.org/2012/12/22/get…
9. Southern Africa was missing from the graph: NOW we’re talking getting old before getting rich!

What do we make if the world average life expectancy dropping 1.8 years in two years (2019-2021)?

Link:ourworldindata.org/9c8f9cc8-78e3-… Image
Correct link: ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-e…
10. SARS should never have gone past summer 2020, had public health principles been heeded. The US, EU, UK made it a question of demographic transition. Fast forward to today: now everyone involved in policy or analysis needs to read up on comparative economics. Learn from China. ImageImage
11. Here general, and #ZeroCovid specific, arguments I didn't see elsewhere. Worth elaborating.

Anyway, back to making hay while the sun shines. 🤣👌
link.springer.com/chapter/10.100…
sydney.edu.au/content/dam/co…
asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/The-un…
12. This graph was missing Southern Africa too. Comparative scholarship allows you to time travel. Image
13. Why look at the past 150 years to see the future? This is the fossil fueled explosion in human creativity and activity we usually look at in climate.
14. Sometimes we also look at the past 250 years; it makes little practical difference on climate. ImageImage
15. This graph shows how the world grew from poor health in 1800 to great inequality in 1950 and again more equality at a higher level in 2012. Someone could update it with 2022 data: I expect we exceeded 2012, but now start moving down.

Both inequity and longevity are at stake. Image
16. Here we go. Ending #ZeroCovid policy dropped life expectancy in Shanghai by one year in 2022. Autumn/winter, if you recall. Depending on how close back to near-#ZeroCovid China gets, effect will be more pronounced going forward.
16. China is aiming to reach 79 years LE in 2030. This research note is interesting because China CDC estimates SARS-CoV-2 had no significant impact on LE 2020-2021 thanks to dynamic ZeroCovid policy. Its relaxation at the end of 2022 needs further M&E. weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi… Image
17. Biden & US embassy kids at Dublin airport

Boy: “What’s your top step to success?”

Biden: “well, making sure that we don’t all have Covid. Why are you talking about this?”

Look, he knows 😂
18. Long story short, we are collectively failing at the political science problem of our lifetimes. Good luck guys and girls, call us when you're tired of failing, and want to start working on solutions.
19. Kid: What’s the top step to success?

Biden: making sure that we don’t all have COVID.

Biden knows. What do the “living with COVID” say to this? Image
Rest of the answer seems typical enough, but the slip of tongue is curious.

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 16
1. #ZeroCovid 2030 is the goal

Activists, campaign for it. Scientists, analyze how to achieve it. Policymakers, implement it.

Different countries may pick different dates - either way it will require international cooperation.

By then we will have ten year COVID-19 survivors.
2. It’s stunning that I’m the only one making such an argument. As if millions of people worldwide hadn’t studied political science or understand how policy making works!

Pick up the slack please, this is not acceptable.

No goal = no policy = no change.
3. Key: know that public opinion has little impact on policy outcomes. Most discussions you see? Irrelevant. Power matters more.

Read political science, use the legal system, work with political entrepreneurs, unions, patients, employers, insurances—that’s how you affect change.
Read 9 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 15
Someone kindly asked about my website, so I'm sharing an archived version, whomever it may help on climate, systems, solutions.

I lack time to update - not a priority now -. If you want to advance such work, go ahead! (You can probably also hire me 🤣)🙏 web.archive.org/web/2022030611… Image
Text from ~2018-2020. I shared two rough concept notes as literature reviews in 2021 too, building on @GhoshAmitav @rahmstorf @jrockstrom @W_Lucht and many more.

All this would have been smart to address pre-war, even back in 2017. What is our plan now? Image
@GhoshAmitav @rahmstorf @jrockstrom @W_Lucht Kind reminder because we are many years behind: Climate activists and scientists can target high-leverage policies that can work within existing legal and regulatory frameworks any day. Why don't they do it? -- I don't know. Thanks and good luck, everyone,
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 15
I can't believe coffee roasters and cafés haven't drunk from the "Black Pepper Coffee to Cure COVID" cup!

you're welcome ;) sevenpublicacoes.com.br/index.php/edit… Image
I like this literature review not just for the pepper-coffee analysis, but also because they accurately describe the disease as SARS / COVID-19. Pathogenesis and disease course of SARS-CoV-1 / -2 are indeed almost the same.

Hence a coffee support page ;) ImageImage
Not sure if "Liquid Pepper Coffee to Prevent Airborne Alzheimer's" will stand up to scientific scrutiny, but that never stopped the discerning marketing genius. This thread for SARS / COVID-19 pathogenesis; bring an espresso or two (shot whiskey optional).
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 14
Tech dudes plus AI are the literal plague. Study climate breakdown, try to be useful, guys. Stop the wannabescientific bs. ImageImage
Did you ever apologize for playing part in giving humans SARS-CoV, @tomaspueyo, by inventing the unscientific “hammer and dance” bs metaphor, to legitimize mass infection policy?
“We can terraform Venus”

Surface temperature 462°C 🤡

Guys why don’t you stop the sixth extinction and climate breakdown first, let’s talk once that’s done
Read 6 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 14
It doesn't need to be this way -- but this, precisely, is the state of SARS-CoV-2. Spread the disease to every last human alive, to alter their minds. (yes the virus gets through the blood-brain barrier and affects the brain)

😘 you sure this is what you want?
oopsie we infected hundreds of millions worldwide with a virus that causes DNA damage. - NONE of them have a plan, they're currently just grifting it because few of us care.
Oopsie you told parents ALL children will be infected (no, politics caused that), called it flu-like. You forgot to mention it's a relentlessly evolving pathogen damaging DNA and immune system

HIV scientists call it eerily familiar

You're in deep trouble
cleveland.com/news/2022/10/i…
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Apr 13
You'll find great SARS-CoV-2 studies in China CDC's weekly publication. I currently lack time to go through the details and share, apologies. weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/zcustom/cur…
China is the only state sharing such high-quality investigations publicly. They have skilled people who understand you can't run a state - even far fewer than 1.4 billion people - on magical thinking, PR, and amateurish 'expert' groupthink.

yes that's bad weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi… ImageImage
Do @rki_de, US CDC, others share such data? Maybe, somewhere? I just haven't seen it, as unlikely unpaid tweeting science 'communicator' (that's no sustainable model!). And for sure this information isn't reaching science journalists, decisionmakers, the public. (Reread #1 above)
Read 6 tweets

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